21 minutes ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Does the Kremlin’s confirmation that Trump sent Putin COVID tests in America’s greatest need, rate as an October surprise?

It's only October 10th. Still time for a 3rd "assassination attempt." 

1 hour ago, Gray Bunny said:

It's only October 10th. Still time for a 3rd "assassination attempt." 

Lemme not laugh, even though this made me want to cackle.

It's official, though I think his team may panic and try to set another:

 

 

 

 

As someone from Michigan, one thing a lot of us hate, maybe even as much as the state of Ohio, is outsiders shitting on Detroit. I already thought Kamala was going to win Michigan, but for Trump to trash talk Detroit, while in Detroit, this seals it even more. 

Amusingly, Trump leaked his internal (Tony Fabrizio) polling today - and even his slanted internals only have him tied in all swing states.

President Obama is giving a 🔥🔥🔥speech at a Harris/Walz campaign rally in Pittsburgh right now.

He's still got it.

 

I'm not going to post all of this but the Aaron Rupar and Acyn accounts have a ton of it, and I'm sure the full speech will be on YT shortly.

I will post a little though!

 

 

A solid thread:

 

10 hours ago, JaneAusten said:

I agree with most of this but I am not sure he hasn't grown his support in some areas.  No I don't believe the black numbers mostly because we hear this every election cycle for every republican who runs long before Trump.  The only area I have heard potential inroads is with young men.  And that might be possible. Some of them might buy into the so called "machismo" of Trump.(I know don't make me laugh).

I know many folks (not me) have poked fun at Harris for the fact she spent time on the Call Her Daddy podcast, but from what I have read, Trump has spent time on podcasts younger men listen to.  Well not Rogan of course but others like Lex Fridman, although I admit I don't know the traffic on his podcast.  I tend to think the Call Her Daddy appearance reached a lot of people Harris normally would not reach, but then I am also biased towards the idea that abortion rights will still play the dominate issue in this election also.  People tend to forget that abortion is not only a freedom issue, but an economic issue. The largest demographic getting abortions today are married women with children.

Trump has gone on all kinds of podcasts for bros, like Theo Von and Adin Ross. He claimed Barron suggested this idea to him. Trump has long had a false image of machismo, thanks to his constant abusive comments and his ties to UFC and WWF. Many blue-collar men seem to gravitate toward him, and I'm not sure what will change that. Biden's attempts at reaching them didn't seem to make a difference. 

I imagine Obama's efforts will be spun as lecturing and out of touch, and the GOP has spent 15 years spreading lies that he is gay and Michelle is transgender because they know it further weakens him with that base (and it is still going on - Joe Rogan was going on about Michelle in his latest garbage standup special). 

Another article on weaknesses in Michigan:

Dems move to shore up Harris’ base in Michigan: ‘I am worried about turnout in Detroit’ - POLITICO

Another piece about the shifting tones of the race:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a62571041/trump-harris-last-weeks/

I can already tell her taking support from the Cheneys is going to be what a lot of people use as to why Trump seems to be gaining ground, even though I don't think most people care. I saw that James Carville was blaming her arguments with DeSantis. I think if those cost her, she wasn't likely to win anyway.

That piece just feels like Pierce having a 2016 encounter group moment to me, and I like Charles Pierce. But it doesn't mean anything to me. As marceline said, it's the same race it's been for weeks and the same October doldrums. And no, I don't think Trump is actually gaining much ground - I don't see any substantive or credible evidence of that. I believe even Carville himself (never known not to be a crank when he wants to be) said that the other day on a podcast - the race hasn't moved much and everyone is getting paranoid because there's nothing else for onlookers to do.

Do I think there is more to be done campaign-wise? Of course, always. But no matter how much RCP or Politico, etc. tries to wishcast it there is no sign of a clear 'shift towards Trump'. Even the reputable pollsters are saying we're being flooded with junk polls or nonsensically-skewed stuff like today's TIPP numbers. So barring that it's just stasis.

Edited October 11, 20241 yr by Vee

6 hours ago, Vee said:

That piece just feels like Pierce having a 2016 encounter group moment to me, and I like Charles Pierce. But it doesn't mean anything to me. As marceline said, it's the same race it's been for weeks and the same October doldrums. And no, I don't think Trump is actually gaining much ground - I don't see any substantive or credible evidence of that. I believe even Carville himself (never known not to be a crank when he wants to be) said that the other day on a podcast - the race hasn't moved much and everyone is getting paranoid because there's nothing else for onlookers to do.

Do I think there is more to be done campaign-wise? Of course, always. But no matter how much RCP or Politico, etc. tries to wishcast it there is no sign of a clear 'shift towards Trump'. Even the reputable pollsters are saying we're being flooded with junk polls or nonsensically-skewed stuff like today's TIPP numbers. So barring that it's just stasis.

I think this is right.  And the dems are doing everything right.  I have to question the articles about dems being anxious. Is this true? Or is this a democratic strategy so people don't get over confident like we did with Hillary?  So much is different but Marceline is right about the PTSD. I chuckle at Trumps idiotic comments about Detroit.  Well apparently per Tom Bonier the early voting numbers in Michigan specifically in the Detroit area is off the charts, so to speak, So is that why the tirade? I don't know anyone who is from there, as someone in this thread indicated, is going to dampen enthusiasm and will likely have the opposite impact. 

I know from phonebanking, that the conversations are very much the same as 2022 if not moreso. Volunteering for the same group and calling Independent women and Suburban GOP women in swing states.  70% of those I talk to are voting - that's up from 54% in 2022, and most I speak to who are undecided are learning to Harris. And those I speak to who don't know much about the issue(hard to imagine) are surprised it's so dire at this point.

If anyone out there is anxious, volunteer. Phone banking is relatively easy.  The technology is such you don't need a phone to do this just a computer with a mic and speaker included. If you have never done it, be prepared with long waits because the direct dialing does bypass connecting you to calls if no one answers which is 90% of the calls made. You only get connected if there is an answer.

From the very reliable Jon Ralston:

 

4 hours ago, JaneAusten said:

I think this is right.  And the dems are doing everything right. 

I definitely don't think things are perfect or that the campaign is necessarily doing everything right, but I think they're doing quite well. I think more can be done but I don't think polling is going to move much. The only time we'll see the truth (and I suspect bigger numbers) is on the day.

Another celebrity endorsing the Harris/Walz campaign.