Agreed on all of the above. And in the end they will absolutely pit Wagger's murder on someone else. That's their only option unless they really want to redo the cold-blooded murder of A.J. which, who knows.
I've seen this story so many times on the show - there's always some bullshît escape hatch which exonerates the mob either figuratively or literally, proves Sonny right, etc. This goes back to the Guza II years, where even Dante's childhood idol from his backstory, a beat cop in his neighborhood in Brooklyn, turned out to be corrupt or something to make Sonny look good lol. Somehow there will be some nonsense to get Sonny off.