Victoria Rowell, Darius McCrary, and Kristoff St. John on Radio Show

[quartermainefan]

Posted 28 July 2010 - 06:18 PM

"After you blamed Black People for Prop 8 whatever you have to say is irrelevent."

Now there it is in your own words.

[TC]

She still chose a racial hook to hang her wit.

[DeeeDee]

Which is what you did.

You blamed Black People's supposed "bigotry" in Prop 8 as an excuse NOT to support them.

Yet...

Factually Unsupported Myth #1: CNN’s 10% Black exit poll sample accurately reflects the actual distribution of voters on Proposition 8.

Each and every argument I’ve read since Proposition 8 passed that lays blame on Black people --- whether only like the worst of the haters or even primarily -- for the passage of Proposition 8 starts with CNN’s exit poll statistics about Proposition 8 at its foundation. Yet anyone who knows anything about the demographics of the State of California – or anyone who spent ½ as much time looking up actual data as ranting all over the free world about what "Black people" did "to gay people" (as if those groups are wholly separate, telling you a lot about the racism that underlies the argument) would know that 10% simply defies reality, unless a million or so Black folks snuck into the state just before the election so they could say they cast their vote for Barack Obama on sunny California shores.

But even if you are not like me, not an actual resident of the state and willing to do my homework before spouting off, it did not take any study to figure out what was the problem. Indeed, if you read CNN’s own explanation of its exit polling/projection process, it is clear that CNN makes no claim that the distribution of folks which it exit polled about Proposition 8 was necessarily reflective of the actual racial percentages of the California electorate who voted, not even in those places that CNN actually exit-polled in. From CNN’s own website about its methodology:

The process of projecting races begins by creating a sample of precincts. The precincts are selected by random chance, like a lottery, and every precinct in the state has an equal chance to be in the sample. They are not bellwether precincts or "key" precincts. Each one does not mirror the vote in a state but the sample collectively does.

The first indication of the vote comes from the exit polls conducted by EMR. On the day of the election, EMR interviewers stand outside of precincts in a given state. They count the people coming out after they have voted and are instructed to interview every third person or every fifth person, for example, throughout the voting day. The rate of selection depends on the number of voters expected at the polling place that day. They do this from the time the polling place opens until shortly before it closes.

What's missing from this picture?

CNN has left us without a critical piece of information necessary to establish the validity of its sampling on Proposition 8: precisely where the network exit polled in California. It simply says that "the aggregate sample is accurate" but has not provided they key piece of information necessary to actually prove it.

This matters for a reason. Specifically, in a state where different demographic populations are reasonably-evenly spread throughout a state, which does not also have dramatic divergences in political ideology which depend on where you live within the state, CNN's methodology might permit it to make a truly accurate statement about the percentage of voters in total who voted on a measure state-wide.

[ranger1rg]

but why should i believe that MTS ever did this AT ALL? just who ARE these "sources"?

[quartermainefan]

I see no reason why this one poll of all polls needs to be doubted except we dare not say something that is uncomfortable. You have your dailykos essay that gives you comfort or whatever it is it gives you. At this time, the polling data available suggests a 70% margin, which is pretty interesting. As I asked you way back when you said 70% was not high, just what number do you consider high? If 70% is not high, what ratio do you need before we can say a particular demographic is riddled with homophobes?

[DeeeDee]

LMAO So NOW when the numbers show your assertion to be false it's a problem.

No dear.

Those are facts.

And again....

Frankly, in a state whose political leanings of the state are quite red/conservative except for a few pockets of population (which state unleashed Ronald Reagan on the nation again? Any guesses?), choosing precincts to exit poll "by random selection", and then selecting targets by simply counting either 1 out of 3 or 1 out of 5 – with no attempt to ensure that you are getting an accurate correlate by race -- is a recipe for statistical disaster if what you are trying to do is make a claim about not only how many Black people actually voted, but what those Black voters did, or did not do, on a particular matter.

(In this case, the disaster has in fact occurred and unleashed hateful anti-Black rhetoric from white gay bloggers and others that is going to set the cause of gay people back a long [!@#$%^&*] time in the Black community if it doesn’t get in check.)

Finally, when was the last time you heard of an exit poll that measured voters by mail? In another state and in another election, not including votes by mail might not matter so much. But in California? In this election? It is a huge omission of data. Since an estimated 4,000,000 voters in California are registered as "permanent absentee voters.". It is estimated by the No on 8 Campaign that 3,000,000 absentee votes were cast in California for Tuesday's election. We are not even going to discuss early voters, since I cannot find a statistic on them right now other than to note that a lot of California voters cast their votes before Election Day. So who knows how those two groups cast their votes on Proposition 8, their racial makeup, or anything else?

I don’t. Neither do you.

[DeeeDee]

[TC]

Black money didn't win Prop. 8.

[ReddFoxx]

An eye opener about what? Social conservatism isn't always cut and dried, some people voted yes on it because they have such strong and deeply rooted religious upbringings, not because they are necessarily raging bigots. I voted no and I don't agree with any reasoning for voting for it, but I don't think the bigot label is a broad brush.

[ranger1rg]

the truth is the truth, no matter how someone tries to spin the numbers here. it's been reported time and time again that a large percentage of african americans is against gay marriage.

that has NOTHING to do with the number of blacks who voted in california, or the small percentage of blacks in the state.

when you look at the specific african american demo, a LARGE PERCENTAGE voted against prop 8. that is a FACT.

[DeeeDee]

And really all the Prop 8 stats say is that Black People are no more homophobic than any other race of people.

[alphanguy74]

One could also point to the many books and articles on homophobia in the black community written by black gay men and women.

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/711654.The_Greatest_Taboo

[DeeeDee]

CNN has left us without a critical piece of information necessary to establish the validity of its sampling on Proposition 8: precisely where the network exit polled in California. It simply says that "the aggregate sample is accurate" but has not provided they key piece of information necessary to actually prove it.

This matters for a reason. Specifically, in a state where different demographic populations are reasonably-evenly spread throughout a state, which does not also have dramatic divergences in political ideology which depend on where you live within the state, CNN's methodology might permit it to make a truly accurate statement about the percentage of voters in total who voted on a measure state-wide.

That, however, is not an accurate description of the state of California, as anyone who lives here knows.

In California, virtually all of this state's Black folks live in just 9 of the state’s 58 counties:

Alameda County (13.7% Black)

Sacramento County (10.5% Black)

Los Angeles County (9.6% Black)

Contra Costa County (9.5% Black)

San Joaquin County (8.0% Black)

San Francisco County (7.2% Black - although this number has plummeted and will plummet more after redevelopment of the last "Black neighborhood", Hunters' Point)

Riverside County (6.6% Black)

Kern County (6.3% Black)

and

San Diego County (5.5% Black).

The vast majority of the counties in this state have a percentage of Black residents of between 1 and 2% (and several have far have less than 1%).

When you know that about California, you know that CNN's "random selection of precinct" method doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense if what you’re trying to do is actually know what Black voters are doing at the polls.

Frankly, in a state whose political leanings of the state are quite red/conservative except for a few pockets of population (which state unleashed Ronald Reagan on the nation again? Any guesses?), choosing precincts to exit poll "by random selection", and then selecting targets by simply counting either 1 out of 3 or 1 out of 5 – with no attempt to ensure that you are getting an accurate correlate by race -- is a recipe for statistical disaster if what you are trying to do is make a claim about not only how many Black people actually voted, but what those Black voters did, or did not do, on a particular matter.

(In this case, the disaster has in fact occurred and unleashed hateful anti-Black rhetoric from white gay bloggers and others that is going to set the cause of gay people back a long [!@#$%^&*] time in the Black community if it doesn’t get in check.)

Finally, when was the last time you heard of an exit poll that measured voters by mail? In another state and in another election, not including votes by mail might not matter so much. But in California? In this election? It is a huge omission of data. Since an estimated 4,000,000 voters in California are registered as "permanent absentee voters.". It is estimated by the No on 8 Campaign that 3,000,000 absentee votes were cast in California for Tuesday's election. We are not even going to discuss early voters, since I cannot find a statistic on them right now other than to note that a lot of California voters cast their votes before Election Day. So who knows how those two groups cast their votes on Proposition 8, their racial makeup, or anything else?

I don’t. Neither do you.

...So where are these supposed "LARGE NUMBERS"?

[TC]

To quote you, "pretty much."

[DeeeDee]

One could also point to the many books, articles, movies & documentaries on homophobia in the White Community written/directed by white gay men & women.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112651/