Brilliance

Speaking of charts... MarkH... Do you have the latest estimates of when will Y&R reach cancellation threshold?

Edited December 8, 200916 yr by Sylph

Moving this post to this thread:

With CBS down to just two soaps now, that means Y&R is gonna be hella micromanaged in more ways than it was before.

Here's hoping it leads to some decent changes both in front and behind the camera. Y&R needs some better people handling the creative/writing side, and it's time they get their asses in gear, since they have nothing to lose anymore. I sincerely hope 2010 brings in a new regime at this show, even if we have to keep Maria as a figurehead, despite her atrocious leadership skills. We needs a better Co-Head Writer (with Sheffer and Hamner being fired), a smaller writing staff, some better script and breakdown writers, and a better technical producer than that haggard tool Paul Rauch. A new casting director that doesn't favour has-been former primetime stars would be nice too.

Edited December 8, 200916 yr by Y&RWorldTurner

I forget what my last projected date was

For the longest time, based on a basic linear extrapolation of ratings trends, I assumed Y&R would die in 2016.

But with CBS moving out of the soap business (and there can be little doubt this is what they are doing), it certain seems as though (contract dependent) B&B in 2011 and Y&R in 2012 is feasible. Alternatively, if CBS just wants OUT of the soap biz, getting rid of B&B and Y&R in 2011 doesn't seem out of the question to me.

I have no idea, but I pretty strongly believe 2016 on CBS is way too optimistic. We're entering the final 5 years or less, that seems clear. I still stand by collective wisdom that Y&R will be the last to go...but who knows? It is also probably still one of the most expensive.

Welcome back Mark I was starting to wonder where you went. At this rate I expect if there isn't some sort of major turnaround this show ratings will continue to drop so Mark maybe your projections are still a bit optimistic, but I guess optimism is sometimes necessary

I forget what my last projected date was

For the longest time, based on a basic linear extrapolation of ratings trends, I assumed Y&R would die in 2016.

But with CBS moving out of the soap business (and there can be little doubt this is what they are doing), it certain seems as though (contract dependent) B&B in 2011 and Y&R in 2012 is feasible. Alternatively, if CBS just wants OUT of the soap biz, getting rid of B&B and Y&R in 2011 doesn't seem out of the question to me.

I have no idea, but I pretty strongly believe 2016 on CBS is way too optimistic. We're entering the final 5 years or less, that seems clear. I still stand by collective wisdom that Y&R will be the last to go...but who knows? It is also probably still one of the most expensive.

Re-calculate!

And use only the latest trend / steepest slope! From last days of Alden or Lynn or Maria!

I posted this in the Writers/Directors thread, but it should be posted here too I guess.

Jerry Birn has died: http://soapoperadigest.com/news/breaking/

Welcome back Mark I was starting to wonder where you went. At this rate I expect if there isn't some sort of major turnaround this show ratings will continue to drop so Mark maybe your projections are still a bit optimistic, but I guess optimism is sometimes necessary

Especially with Les Moonves' sneering, eh?

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Dec 8, 2009 1:57 PM

Classy Les Moonves Just Told a CNBC Reporter He's Firing His Mother-in-Law on Live TV

In an interview Les Moonves did today with CNBC's David Faber, the CBS honcho off-handedly described the network's decision to cancel 54-year-old soap As the World Turns. Wonder if he knows Faber's mother-in-law has worked on the show for four decades? Awkward!

CBS actually dropped the ax earlier today so by the time David Faber talked to Moonves, he'd probably already heard the show will end next September. But it was probably a call from his wife, Jenny: Jenny Faber's mother is Marie Masters, who started in the role of Dr. Susan Stewart in 1968. She left the show in 1979 only to return in 1986. She still plays the character occasionally today and even served as a writer on the show at one point.

At the end of the (boring) interview about ad spending and stupid business things, Faber couldn't help but ask about the show getting dropped (do you think he could go home tonight if he didn't?). Moonves said, "The days of the soap opera have changed very much. Guiding Light left earlier this year and As the World Turns will leave later next year. They've had long and distinguished runs and their days are over." Burn! The saddest thing is, he says it with a bit of a smirk.

Nothing like telling a guy his mother-in-law is a dinosaur on live TV. Faber didn't make much of a reaction on-air, but what he told Moonves when the cameras turned off probably depends on how he feels about his mother-in-law.

Edited December 8, 200916 yr by MarkH

But with CBS moving out of the soap business (and there can be little doubt this is what they are doing), it certain seems as though (contract dependent) B&B in 2011 and Y&R in 2012 is feasible. Alternatively, if CBS just wants OUT of the soap biz, getting rid of B&B and Y&R in 2011 doesn't seem out of the question to me.

Mark, I am still mystified as to how an optimist like yourself can buy into such negativity.

Fans of GL and ATWT have my sincere condolences. Really, they do. But the P&G soaps and the Bell soaps are a world apart:

- P&G wanted out of the business; the Bells don't.

- P&G didn't care about the quality of their soaps; the Bells do (I know, I know - calm down, Alvin).

- B&B could survive on its international audience alone; ATWT and GL couldn't. And there's no way they could justify cancelling Y&R and keeping B&B.

- The P&G soaps were at the bottom of the ratings; the Bell soaps are at the top.

I expect OLTL and AMC to be cancelled before 2020, but Y&R and B&B won't be, and I'm fairly confident that Days and GH won't be either.

Especially with Les Moonves' sneering, eh?

What an a$$hole! Jesus Christ. He could have at least feigned disappointment.

Fans of GL and ATWT have my sincere condolences. Really, they do. But the P&G soaps and the Bell soaps are a world apart:

- P&G wanted out of the business; the Bells don't.

- P&G didn't care about the quality of their soaps; the Bells do (I know, I know - calm down, Alvin).

- B&B could survive on its international audience alone; ATWT and GL couldn't. And there's no way they could justify cancelling Y&R and keeping B&B.

- The P&G soaps were at the bottom of the ratings; the Bell soaps are at the top.

What you fail to see is P&G didn't cancel these soaps, CBS did. If CBS wants out of the soap opera industry, which they've been hinting at, then Y&R and B&B will be gone in a few years too. Neither show makes the profit they used to make, and they're very expensive to produce.

Ratings that are declining don't matter, CBS makes no money from Y&R and B&B's international sales, and the ad profit they used to make from thes shows decreases year to year. There is very little incentive for CBS wanting to keep them.

Neither show makes the profit they used to make, and they're very expensive to produce.

Didn't CBS just slash their budget by half?

Didn't CBS just slash their budget by half?

Yep.

Oh God...I am so enjoying CBS playing hardball..haven't had so much fun in years!!! Please don't mess with Leslie, ok!!

The people who write and produce for Y&R behave like they will be happy to see the show go. It seems to just be a paycheck for them, and a template for their weird issues.

If or when the show is gone, I hope they will get some blame, and it won't just be, "Oh, well, daytime is dying, it's inescapable, c'est la vie."

Edited December 9, 200916 yr by CarlD2

The people who write and produce for Y&R behave like they will be happy to see the show go. It seems to just be a paycheck for them, and a template for their weird issues.

If or when the show is gone, I hope they will get some blame, and it won't just be, "Oh, well, daytime is dying, it's inescapable, c'est la vie."

I think that is the problem...soap writers can't write anymore, they have nothing new to tell, it's the same stories over and over and over..even their so called shock, disgust & awe are predictable. Good grief, we are watching stuff on Y&R now that we just saw last year for heaven's sake with the same blooming dialogue. I can already see the makings of Billy getting the same Michael day we did last year, Nick is repeating the same damn dialogue for the past 2 years. Sharon oh well..I am actually enjoying Sharon, written just the way I like it so I am not going to complain about that. Daniel is in trouble wrongly accused, here is Phyllis again defending him again, Lily/Cane..I don't watch them period..switch the channel if I am watching live and time it so I can switch back. Newbies who can't act worth a darn and taking up screen time. Terroni art story, reliquary-like, what's the difference, stupid retread as before. Lauren, here comes possible Sheila again. I caught one whiff of Tucker McCall and wouldn't you know it, almost reminds me of when Victor came to GC and got involved with Katherine. I can already figure out that I will be saying, didn't Victor do that too. Did MAB locate Bill Bell's old scripts in the basement and now just plaguerizing his stuff (and not even plaguerizing correctly LOL) only using newer characters now. Y&R is so B&B-like...I could go on here, but you get what I am saying, right LOL!!

If these writers can come up with something FRESH, CREATIVE, INNOVATIVE that will pull viewers in around noon, mid afternoon, then I believe CBS would be more than happy or try to be accomodating but the fact is they have nothing and the old model is not working anymore. And as a longtime viewer I don't want to see retreads, blah, blah. I never wanted to see Phillip come back ever, I wasn't even thinking of him, why did they dredge him up and then completely screw up the story. They need to be able to mix it up and they appear not to have the talent to do that.

From a business perspective and the fact that CBS is a public company and here we have Comcast on its way to buy NBC (if it gets approved),I don't believe CBS is in the mood. They are going to want to butt in and when that starts to happen a lot, oh well.

Edited December 9, 200916 yr by JimTolkien