April 13-17, 2009

[SteveFrame]

Yes you are right. That is the ad space that they do take into account. And that is what these ratings measure, and these ratings are the ones they use to sell ad space for the show that airs on CBS.

When SoapNet is selling ad space for the shows it airs then they use the SoapNet ratings.

Alot of people want to include SoapNet but that would put a show like Guiding Light at an even further disadvantage as it does not air there.

And yes Nielsen is including and issuing to the advertiser now 1 day - which is what Toups reports here - as well as up to 7 day DVR ratings.

We think these ratings look bad, have any of you seen the live only ratings in awhile. They are always lower than what Toups reports here. I think the last live only rating I saw had GL around 1.4 for a week that Toups reported a 1.6 here.

Alot of people want to do away with sampling but sampling is a tried and true research method that has been around for years. I don't see it going away.

[MarkH]

More on the sampling aspect of this below. And, as we have discussed elsewhere, there is a move toward population-captures of DVR users...TiVo is blazing that trail with its "Stop Watch" ratings service, that will capture all DVR viewers. Until there is wider market penetration of DVRs, and until we count both TiVo and non-TiVo DVRs, however, that is still a selective subset of all viewers. On the flip side, TiVo viewers tend to be younger and more affluent...so they are a highly desirable niche for advertisers.

Clearly, for the legal internet streams, each stream is being counted, and the services know EXACTLY how many viewers are watching, for how long, which scenes, and which commercials. So that group is being counted. But, as brimike previously suggested, the revenue model for internet ads is still sh!t. Brimike went so far as to say some of these internet deals are a FLAT RATE, and so they don't vary with number of impressions or anything.

Where the revenue is lost is here: (a) videotaping/DVD recording is still a lost audience, and ( all you evil souls who torrent. (If I could, I'd make illegal torrents -- poof -- disappear in the twinkling of an eye). THAT is, in large measure, killing all forms of "free" or "advertiser supported" media.

That's fair. Corday claimed a big part of the Days fall during the Sheffer regime was because NBC had announced, in that time frame, that Days was not going to be renewed. Corday said that caused viewer dis-investment.

But, as I type this, there is a CBS-GL banner ad at the top of my screen. So CBS or P&G is still paying to advertise/promote GL. Why? This is fishy to me. If it is P&G, that tells me they are SERIOUSLY trying to keep this show alive.

First, SteveFrame, though you probably wouldn't be interested, when you write such excellent no-bullsh!t statements of the fact, I just wanna ... well ... at least high-five you!

For all legal transmissions of soaps (network, Soapnet, legal streams) viewers are counted and recorded and ad rates set accordingly. So, Soapnet has ratings (published, occasionally, in their press releases), and for their showings, that determines their ad rates. Nets have ratings. Online streams actually have ratings. It makes no sense to "add them together" for advertising purposes, because each venue will charge based on its audience.

It does make sense to add together on a conceptual basis. If you say to Lifetime "Look...adding together the legal streams and the broadcast+DVR info, our actual audience is XX, and this is a good number", it speaks to the potential audience for a new home. But that's about all. And you can believe P&G/Telenext is doing exactly that.

While sampling is imperfect (hence, 95% confidence intervals or "margins of error", etc.), the Neilsen samples are well constructed, broad, diverse, and large. They are not perfect, but they're d*mn good, and nothing better yet exists. When we get to 100% counts of DVRs (after high market penetration) and internet streams...the Neislen sampling will have become obsolete. But that's still a few years off.

[marceline]

I'm officially stepping off ratings watch to ask if Toups is okay. Usually we've heard from him by now even if its just to say "get off my back."

[Cyberologist]

Thanks I didn't know it is joint owned.

[Lskreet]

I'm also wondering if Toups is ok.

Since he hasn't posted the dailies I'll do it.

ABC

AMC

Monday 2.1

Tuesday 2.1

Wednesday 1.9

Thursday 2.0

Friday 1.8

GH

Monday 2.1

Tuesday 1.9

Wednesday 2.0

Thursday 1.9

Friday 1.9

OLTL

Monday 2.1

Tuesday 2.0

Wednesday 1.9

Thursday 1.9

Friday 1.8

CBS

ATWT

Monday 2.1

Tuesday 1.9

Wednesday 1.8

Thursday 1.8

Friday 1.7

B&B

Monday 2.8

Tuesday 2.7

Wednesday 2.5

Thursday 2.4

Friday 2.4

GL

Monday 1.8

Tuesday 1.7

Wednesday 1.5

Thursday 1.5

Friday 1.6

Y&R

Monday 4.1

Tuesday 3.9

Wednesday 3.8

Thursday 3.6

Friday 3.5

NBC

DOOL

Monday 2.0

Tuesday 2.0

Wednesday 2.2

Thursday 2.1

Friday 2.0

[MarkH]

So far, I had been flip in my own head ("Man...he's at an all-you-can-eat buffet or something"). Now you have me worried.

Thank you Lskreet. Wow...a 4.1 for Y&R on Monday. What episode was that? The aftermath of Billy's wedding?

[dm.]

No, that was two-three weeks ago.

This was:

Amber/Kevin in the courtroom

Phyllis destroying Sharon's room

Sharon and Nick having sex

Noah and Eden having sex

[LoyaltoAMC]

I'm shocked by how much GH has dropped. Three days below a 2.0! In the past when it's dipped, it's usually been for a week or two before rebounding. It's been mired in the 1.9/2.0 area for weeks now with no sign of rebound. The show is an unwatchable mess, but it's been like that for a while. Wonder what FINALLY caused the ratings to dip like this. The other thing that stands out is Y&R's continued erratic dailies. It dropped .6 over the course of a week, and took B&B with it. I know, I know, I realize the daily and weekly fluctuations mean very little, but they're interesting to watch.

[RalphOrtiz]

Toups, I hope you're ok!

[MarkH]

This is what happened to Y&R last year. The show suddenly dipped to the 3.5 territory...and then it kind of hung there...and you suddenly realized "oh no, they've reached a new low plateau".

It is to the credit of that show that, for the first time in recent memory, they were able to claw back a few points. But the "Jack Peyton axiom" clearly states that when a show dips down (more than just random fluctuation) it is down for good...and folks WON'T COME BACK.

If you love GH, I'm sincerely sorry for you. All of us will experience this, but it is still a little sad.

Mondays seem to be THE day, at least for Y&R. That 4.1 impresses me....and I think it may explain why there are sometimes "lulls" in the mid-to-late week. The ratings-builder show is Friday which -- even though it often has the lowest rating -- seems to build the momentum for Monday.

[Jeff]

After going thru 3 pages of whatever and 10 minutes of my life I'll never get back... thanks for the ratings.

[Cyberologist]

I'm really not that shocked the storytelling is horrendous, the preferential writing for their pet poodles

is at an all time high

they brought it on themselves...fans of Jason were in a rant about him reading Carly's P-stick the first time

so what do they do

have him do it again

1.9 Friday imo they are writing their hearts out to tank this show

they have done absolutely nothing to turn things around re: vision....they carry on

yes they are in the hospital more I give them that but how long have fans implored them to focus

on the hospital and less on the mob? years...

as a long time viewer GH is a mess and I speak bitter, because I am on how they are systematically

trashing this show by "design" imo.

Watching this show is like having a root canal.

[Ann_SS]

That explanation does not work for me. If viewers were really responding to the quality of the soaps, viewership would increase as the week progresses not the reverse. The Friday episode with the cliffhanger would have the highest ratings. I think the reason that most of the soaps' ratings decline as the week progresses has more to do with external events. The people who stay at home run errands to get out of the house as the week progress. By Friday, they are going on family trips out of town, etc. Watching soaps is a habit so by Monday, they are turning the tv back on, but they again tune out as the week progresses and the cycle restarts. The problem for the soaps is that the pool of viewers is declining and there are no new viewers on the horizon. There are fewer mothers, aunts, and grandmothers at home to get young female viewers in the habit of watching the soaps. Of course, it does not help that most of the storytelling is last generation and downright bad.

[MarkH]

I don't know....I mean you clearly are correct about the trend (diminishing viewership over the week). Is the end of the week busier? Do more people stay home sick/take vacation days on Monday? Your guess is as good as mine.

The question is whether we're getting to the point that Chris Goutman has advocated...fewer days. Should the Thurs/Fri episodes be cancelled, or substituted with re-broadcasts?

[LoyaltoAMC]

I wish we were privvy to the daily demos, so that we can see who is deserting the shows as the week progresses. For good or for bad, if it's the 50+ crowd, that won't make a difference to advertisers. It's probably all moot anyway, since, as many people have commented, the daily HH numbers, though fun to look at and dissect, probably don't mean much in terms of trends. It's the monthly and quarterly numbers that reveal true patterns, and I think GH is the only show at the moment that is trending downward. In the big picture, it's the one that seems to be losing substantial ground over a long-term period. Y&R, for all its daily swings, has remained steadily in the mid to upper 3's.