So pretty much everyone agree Y&R and B&B will be the last two? lol.

Honestly, i could see Y&R going on without B&B. But i dont see any network just having one soap, even tho NBC is with Days. I just dont see ABC axing one or two soaps, i do feel they will go in one big swoop - however, i dont think its coming anytime soon. I also dont think Y&R or B&B have anything to worry about. Days? Again, hard to cal - almost no way to try and call it to be honest. It could go at any moment or it could outlast everything else on daytime. It depends on the time of the day, the day of the week, whos making the choice, the ratings, and so much more...

so pretty much i think all the soaps are safe, for the most part, minus ATWT.

Y&R

B&B

GH

DAYS or AMC (hard to call)

Y&R and B&B, the rest? Who knows?

Y&R

B&B

DAYS

GH

Wow, Mark, thank you for the graphs!

So they'll all be gone by 2013? Interesting!

I think OLTL will be the first to go, with only two soaps Frons can funnel OLTL budget into GH?AMC. GH/AMC brings media attention and presence in mainstream media that is more important then coming in underbudget.

Luke/Laura and Lucci are legacy in the soap worlds they are not going anywhere, OLTL will be sacrifice.

Wow, Mark, thank you for the graphs!

So they'll all be gone by 2013? Interesting!

I think I really need to do some better predictions now.

I need to take the decline rates of, say, just the last 5-7 years, and I need to set a higher threshhold for cancellation (e.g., 1.5), and I need to allow the decline trends to be non-linear. All this is easily accomplished, and it should lead to a better prediction.

Actually, it turns out that GH, Y&R and B&B may be safe from imminent cancellation. That surprises me, but I explained it in the GL thread.

Honestly my prediction is DAYS will leave the airwaves next September and NBC will be soap free which is want they wanted for years. It could replace AMC though which I believe will end it's run in 2 years. ATWT unless it does something drastic could be let go next year. My prediction is Y&R obviously has years left in it, B&B, GH(they need to slash the budget bigtime) and OLTL are the final four soaps left on the air.

B&B is a mega smash hit around the world. It won't be goinf anywhere anytime soon.

GH is safe and going nowhere, despite its ratings declines. If Days continues its upswing, Frons may change his tune next time the show is up for grabs and decide to snatch it. I think it's a toss-up as to whether it would replace AMC or OLTL. Arguments can be made for both sides. AMC has more general media awareness than OLTL, icon Susan Lucci, and judging by those city-by-city ratings that've been posted the past few weeks, gangbuster ratings in some of the biggest markets like NYC. On the other hand, OLTL generally scores slightly higher in the 18-49s (though pretty much ties AMC in the 18-34's), takes more chances when it comes to its storytelling, and seems more compatible with GH (urban feel, fast moving, not big on schmaltzy romance).

Wow, Mark, thank you for the graphs!

So they'll all be gone by 2013? Interesting!

No, all but B&B, Y&R and GH. Those three, now, it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict when they'll be gone because they'll level off.

ETA I think I put this graph in the wrong thread

Edited April 2, 200916 yr by MarkH

Y&R will be the last soap left on the air. If ABC ever cancels, I think they will cancel all three of their soaps at the same time.

Edited April 2, 200916 yr by jfung79

IMO ATWT will be the next to go. Then OLTL.

I think Y&R, B&B, GH, AMC, DAYS will still be on (Even though I really want OLTL to be on)(

Wasn't OLTL close to cancellation in the 70s? Not sure how accurate he was being, but Clint Ritchie said a number of times that the show was thisclose to being cancelled in 1979, and that the influx of Buchanans saved the show. I know that AMC was #1 in the 78-79 season and that GH was close behind. What about OLTL? Sandwiched between those 2 blockbusters and still coming off a high from the whole Judith Light fabulousness, it must've been doing somewhat well. I can't imagine that ABC was considering cancellation. Maybe a few years earlier but not in 1979. Sorry to go off on a tangent

Wasn't OLTL close to cancellation in the 70s? Not sure how accurate he was being, but Clint Ritchie said a number of times that the show was thisclose to being cancelled in 1979, and that the influx of Buchanans saved the show. I know that AMC was #1 in the 78-79 season and that GH was close behind. What about OLTL? Sandwiched between those 2 blockbusters and still coming off a high from the whole Judith Light fabulousness, it must've been doing somewhat well. I can't imagine that ABC was considering cancellation. Maybe a few years earlier but not in 1979. Sorry to go off on a tangent

I don't remember that, either.

The closest OLTL has ever come to cancellation (or at least likely cancellation, in my mind) was about 10 years ago when ABC made a serious play for DAYS. The plan was to put DAYS between AMC and GH, cancel Port Charles, and place a truncated OLTL in its half-hour timeslot. That, to me, would've meant OLTL was a goner. But NBC agreed to Sony's demands and kept DAYS. Now, I don't see ABC making a play for it.