Predict the final four soaps that will be left on air.

[Adam]

Not exactly the time and place for this type of discussion, but its the harsh reality we are facing. Y&R and B&B are up for renewal in 2010 correct? I know they will still be renewed, but it will be interesting to see how the budgets are restructured.

[bellcurve]

Nah!

And quite frankly, I'll say it again: I wouldn't be surprised if ABC made a play for Y&R. I don't mean to sound like Darlotto or anything, but the show is a solid ratings performer in it's SOAPnet timeslot.

[Adam]

If they succeed.... made as well turn the lights out on em all. If Frons ever gets ahold of Y&R....[Katherine Chancellor]Dear God in Heaven![/Katherine Chancellor]

[Quent]

1) Y&R

2) B&B

3) GH

4) ATWT

DAYS is definitely the next soap to go, without question. Then, ABC will have to give up one of its soaps. At this point, I can't decide if its OLTL or AMC.

[SouthOfSoap]

Y&R

B&B

The most profitable ABC soap left

DAYS

Its all about profit now for the networks. I think if DAYS can maintain its ratings it will get renewed. NBC slashed their weekly fee to DAYS by 40% it was reported at the renegotiation. I wouldn't be surpised if that equated to a 1.6 in HH and 1.1 in 18-49 Females, given the hardball tactics they used. I doubt they never factored the show rising above a 1.8 into the forecasts. At 2.2 and 1.4 last week in sweeps, I think NBC must be turning a sweet profit from the show.

If GH has a bloated budget and it gets slashed soon without a change in story focus, the show will battle to breakeven. Frons may love GH, but the cancellation can come from above him - just like we learnt today Bloom was overriden. As it stands OLTL would be the soap to survive for ABC. But anything can happen in 2 years...even 1 year...

[Southofnowhere]

OLTL isn't losing money so AMC will go before they do. Infact OLTL is doing so well it can cover AMC's loses.

U know what Frons what have the say on this so GH may be the first soap to go. If OLTL can keep covering AMC's butts GH could be TOAST!

[Darlotto99]

no way in hell would CBS let Y&R go to ABC it is a crown jewl of daytime. Y&R will live or die on CBS.

[SouthOfSoap]

ATWT is next. It won't survive without GL with these ratings. 1 April 2010 - mark it in your calendar.

[MarkH]

I fear this seems "know it all"...forgive me. A year ago I posted the chart below. It does a SIMPLE linear extrapolation of the decline trends of all soaps (using the past years as a base), and it assumes a soap is cancelled as it gets close to 1.0 in HH ratings.

Now, this graph assumed that the shows would go till they hit a 1.0. As we can see, CBS pulled the plug on GL earlier (a year early). That probably relates to the financials, and the overall health of the networks and the decline in advertising revenues. Thus, if we change the cancellation threshold to a HH rating of 1.5 or 1.4, then each soap dies a year earlier than this graph below projects.

There are many reasons why this graph might be wrong, but for me, it sort of helps me plan my mourning . I could probably update the graph, using the most recent data...but I don't think it would change much at all. Accept this as an oversimplification, but it sort of serves as the basis of my expectation that NO MATTER WHAT the creative types do, these shows will still go away. That is because virtually NOTHING has been found to alter these decline trajectories. These trajectories (judging from the past 50 years) have been remarkably consistent across all soaps, and have shown little modification based on the creative health of a soap--even as far back as in the 80s.

Truly, I don't it matters WHAT they put on screen, more or less. I think that factors OTHER than what is on screen are leading this death march.

[SouthOfSoap]

MarkH, thats a really cool graph - I like it when you post stuff like that.

Regarding this graph, I have some questions though: Why did you pick a linear trend and how did you get the slope (I assume you got it from averaging over previous years' year on year change in ratings). How many years data did you use? It also looks like all the soaps have the same slope - is that the case, or does it just appear that way in the graph? I doubt all soaps decline at the same rate though surely? Also have you thought about updating the model to use a different time date for projecting forward from? Sorry for the 2 zillion questions

[Jess]

Final Four

Young and Restless

Days

Bold and Beautiful

General Hospital

[MarkH]

My favorite thing is excellent, challenging questions. And these are terrific!

Mostly sheer laziness. But, also, actually, the overall slope of decline (really since the early 80s) has been linear. Not accelerated or decelerated (which would imply quadratic). Linear describes something like 95% of the variance in decline. It is truly a shocking and consistent linear decline that started around the beginning of the Reagan era, is uniform across all soaps. THAT is why I don't blame Ellen Wheeler for the decline. Really, this is a process that started at least 30 years ago. (And, actually, you can find evidence for average decline stretching as far back as the 1960s).

I can't remember (I did this a year ago). Looking at the blog entry I did on this last year, I was not clear. My recollection is that I started in 1990...but I don't remember exactly.

Well, they really do have the same slope, more or less. Look at this other graph I posted last year (and Sylph did something similar). Look how uniform the decline slopes are. Sure, there is random fluctuation...but mostly they fall in lockstep. (These are one-year old data, so forgive innacuracies)

But I also posted a more precise "recent decline" chart in the Ratings thread, at Sylph's behest, just a few minutes ago:

Yes, I would happily do that. What date do you suggest?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Mark and his graphs.

[MarkH]

I think it is my grief coping response.

If I show it is all fore-ordained by the numbers....it makes it seem strangely more controllable. Like, knowing WHEN the ax will fall makes the falling of the ax easier to bear.

But Sylph also motivates me. I would never do these without his suggestions. I haven't done 'em in months .

[kalbir]

Final four:

Y&R

B&B

Days

General Hospital