The Politics Thread

[Vee]

But it doesn't move new votes. And it alienates the middle (and yes, some of his peeling base) further. That's his problem, and that's why Harris is opening up since the debate.

[KristinG79]

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[Vee]

This is only state polling for Iowa, but is a striking change from how Trump was doing there in June against Biden. (And it's a pre-debate poll.)

 

 

[JaneAusten]

This is fricking amazing. It makes me think Christopher Bouzy is onto something. He talked about Florida but he also mentioned Iowa as a sleeper to keep an eye on and this was WEEKS ago.

[Vee]

If you liked that, you'll love this.

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

[Vee]

A longer thread of Vance's train wreck interview with Bash:

 

And a damning, non-paywalled NYT investigation into John Roberts' influence on recent SCOTUS decisions.

 

[Vee]

 

[Vee]

 

[janea4old]

All of this is horrific.

Important to take care of ourselves, so that we can fight for Kamala -- and for Democrat wins in House, Senate, governor elections, state legislatures, and local elections.

Trump and Vance are employing the politics of fear and hate.  
That is why Kamala's focus on joy and love is so vital and necessary.

The creeps want to wear us down with directing focus onto fear and hate.  That is destructive to our mental health -- and their strategists instinctively know this.

I remember a few elections ago, when Daniel Dale, the CNN fact-checker, used to go to every Trump rally and live-tweet the lies with fact-checks.  I respected him but I felt empathically exhausted for him.  I felt relieved for him when he finally took some time off. That was years ago.

Now Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) and Acyn are doing similar work.  I am amazed at how they function.    On August 17th,  Rupar tweeted: "I have to tap out of live coverage of Trump's PA rally to go see Green Day, Rancid, & the Pumpkins."   I was happy for him, because how would anyone remain sane without a break?  That's the only break he has mentioned and even then, he covered most of that rally.

There have been articles in the past several decades -- about how people working in war zones cope with trauma.   It's a balance between the urgency and compassion for others, and keeping oneself sane in order to be able to help others.

But on the other hand, as Tim Walz said,
we have to work every day to get this done, no breaks - 
"We'll sleep when we're dead".
That is also true!

After spending time reading news, I cried and cried this morning.  Then I sat outside under the trees for five minutes to regroup.  Came back to center. 
Just that five minutes helped.
I was able to remember in my mind Kamala talking about love and joy.
And I stopped feeling the fear that the creepy guys want me to be overwhelmed by.

This is a marathon.  Eat right, watch a comedy occasionally, keep fighting.
We can stay strong and spirited, and support those who feel overwhelmed by the fearmongering.

/soapbox

Edited September 15, 2024 by janea4old

[janea4old]

That being said, if anyone is/are just news readers with no personal connection to these attacks....  then personal discomfit doesn't matter.

There is very real violence and terror being directed at human beings, and this must be fought.

[Vee]

 

[Vee]

 

[DramatistDreamer]

Seems as if chaos and disaster trail TFG everywhere he goes. It’s beyond tiresome now.

Maybe it means that his ranting hatred on Ms. Swift did not achieve his desired outcome and now they’re off to find a new way to shift focus.

[Vee]

Honestly, like what was posted above, most of these disasters are not deliberate. They are not about shifting focus. They are simply self-made disasters and impulsive fúck-ups which ultimately hurt him.

Attacking the biggest pop star on the planet with hundreds of thousands if not millions of young fans (and suburban family fans, mothers, fathers, etc.) who she can mobilize to vote is not a brilliant plan or ploy - you can see GOP pundits all over social media dooming about it and saying that he has screwed himself with this. Inciting a race pogrom in Ohio when his opponent is opening up a lead and this kind of specific behavior turns off moderates and undecideds and causes him to bleed more of the support he has been bleeding for eight years is not a brilliant plan. And a potential new assassination attempt won't be a brilliant opening either. After the last attempt complete with fist-pump photo op and a yell of "fight!" faded within a week and did nothing for him, no second attempt will do anything either. It's not even going to knock Vance's blunder today out of the news for long. Look at the half-life the last assassination bit had and cut it in half, if that. As long as Trump, Vance and their people can't stop talking about Haitians, that story will continue to play even if there is a minimal interruption (which I doubt).

The only way Trump knows how to operate is to flood the zone and never stop talking, hoping the last thing he did will fade away. But that hasn't worked In any election cycles since at least 2020, if not since 2018. And again, most of what he has done and is doing is just him riffing and lashing out - no one told him 'let's go after Taylor Swift.' That's the last thing they want. This is him just going wild. There is no master plan. There is no brilliant ploy. There is no media jiujitsu anymore. Nothing has helped his poll numbers. Nothing has changed the national conversation about him becoming the loser of this race. Nothing has changed the fact that he bombed the debate and Harris has opened up more leads as a result. He just looks like a blithering fool stepping on one rake after another. It is no longer a series of incidents that are fading; in an election cycle they all merely become cumulative, building on themselves into a mountain of shít that drags him deeper. That is his new reality.

People need to accept that Trump is not some trailer trash Sun Tzu. It doesn't fit and it doesn't work.

Edited September 15, 2024 by Vee

[DRW50]

I appreciate all the polls, as otherwise I'd have to comb through all sorts of Twitter accounts populated with Trump bots, but I'm just not sure I will ever trust them again (and if I do it would mean I'd have to also go along with the polls saying that Taylor Swift endorsing Harris made people less likely to vote for her or the polls being passed around saying Jill Stein is beating Harris in the Muslim vote in various swing states).

Every day that Trump dominates the conversation means another day viewers don't know Harris. A lot of people will go with the enemy they know, especially if focus goes on issues that favor the GOP and slant media coverage of the GOP, like immigration or the economy. 

The whole thing takes me back to 2016, where I would see ads from pro-Hillary groups that were entirely about Trump and I got a sense of dread because I realized just how much he had crowded her out of the conversation. 

And now with this alleged assassination attempt the focus is even more on him. One of the key attempts Harris had to define herself to people who don't know her has been about everything else. No wonder per a Guardian tweet Trump's people were going around smugly saying how effective the push about Loomer, Springfield, etc. had ended up being. Yes, they are going to say that, but I don't think they were wrong.

A clip of Pete Buttigieg saying this was posted a few days ago, but it's worth posting again.

 

Edited September 15, 2024 by DRW50