The Politics Thread

[Roman]

So innocent people deserve to die that never voted for any of these people?

[quartermainefan]

No, no individual deserves to die, but the society as a whole deserves whatever ills befall it because of its decisions. If 100 people watch as 2 get shot, and then the 98 decide guns are good, and then out of those 98 watch 2 more get shot, they sort of lose the right to blame anyone but themselves. As long as the US population doesn't object to everyone owning a gun then we will continue to have school shootings. It really is that simple. Maybe my math is wrong but if you check every other western country on earth where they have strict gun control, you will see gun violence is a fraction of what it is here even adjusted for sizes in population. I feel bad for the kids and everyone who wants gun control.

[Roman]

Boston is shut down. Just chilling, and my hope is that this God-awful MSM we have in the USA don't turn this into something out of an action movie.

[Max]

Larry Sabato's website already addressed where he saw the Democtratic nomination at this early stage, and here is the article that was written about the Republicans:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16-part-2-an-elephant-rises-from-the-heartland/

 

Sabato actually makes a surprising prediction as to who he things is the #1 front-runner: rather that Rubio or Christie (as most people think), he thinks that designation belongs to Scott Walker.

 

Here's a table (from that article) summing up the strength's and weaknesses each candidate would face in a nominating contest:

 

First Tier
Candidate		Key Advantages	Key Disadvantages
	Scott Walker Governor, WI	•Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability	•Too bland? Next Pawlenty? •Might not deliver home state •Would highly motivate left/labor
	Marco Rubio Senator, FL	•Hispanic •Dynamic speaker and politician •From most electorally valuable swing state	•Future tough votes in Senate; has and will have federal record •Vetting issues regarding family •Could he really deliver more Hispanic votes?
	Chris Christie Governor, NJ	•Dynamic speaker •Shown ability to pursue conservative agenda in Blue state •Proven crossover appeal/populism	•Superstorm Sandy fallout •Not conservative enough for base? •Loose cannon
Second Tier
	Rand Paul Senator, KY	•Tea Party favorite •Strong support from libertarian GOP wing •National ID and fundraising network	•Too libertarian? •Association with out-of-mainstream father •Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes?
	Bobby Jindal Governor, LA	•Brings diversity •Southerner in Southern party •Extensive state/fed. experience	•Controversial governorship •Not nationally vetted •Not a dynamic speaker
Third Tier
	Rick Santorum Fmr. Senator, PA	•Strong support from social conservatives •2nd place finisher in ‘12 – next in line? •Been around primary track	•Too conservative for general election? •Lost last Senate race by 17% •Foot-in-mouth troubles
	Paul Ryan Representative, WI	•2012 VP candidate – next in line? •General election experience •Strong conservative record	•May not want to run •Couldn’t help Romney carry WI •Not a dynamic campaigner
	Rick Perry Governor, TX	•Strong conservative credentials •Texas fundraising •Extensive executive experience	•May lose ‘14 TX GOP primary •Ran very poor 2012 race •”Oops,” we forgot the rest
Wild Card?
	John Kasich Governor, OH	•Swing state •Long conservative record •Ohio’s unemployment below national average	•Supports Medicaid expansion •Legislative resistance to budget •Abrasive personality

 

[Max]

What do you folks think about the likely possibility that Anthony Weiner will run for NYC mayor?

While I dislike Weiner personally (because of his combative personality and the fact that he was a camera whore), I have no problem with him running. I was wrong when I joined the drumbeat of people who demanded his resignation from Congress. For me personally, a big reason why I was so insistent for Weiner to resign was due to anger over Chris Lee's senseless resignation for posting a shirtless picture of himself on Craig's List. (While a higher moral standard must apply to Republicans--as they are the party of conservative Christians--Lee's sin was totally inconsequential, and his resignation was the silliest thing I have ever witnessed.) But in hindsight, what Weiner did was nothing compared to what David Vitter (whom the GOP reprehensibly continues to support) or Bill Clinton did.

Of course, I would not vote for Weiner (if I lived in NYC), but--like I stated earlier--I have no problem with him running. And while he has little chance of winning, I do believe that he will shake up the race.

I am struck by the lack of enthusiasm by the current crop of candidates. If elected, the current front runner--Christine Quinn--would be the city's first openly LGBT (and first female) mayor. Yet, the amount of excitement that her candidacy is generating among gays and lesbians seems to pale in comparison to what Tammy Baldwin received last year, or to what Barack Obama and David Dinkins got among African-Americans.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Max

[DRW50]

Quinn is not overly popular among people in the know, due to her very abrasive personality (there was a NYT article on this). She's also not all that progressive. Look up some of the controversy over a living wage bill she blocked for several years.

[reallyhateskateonlost]

Historic day in Dallas....lol

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Lol at that picture. I actually was a little touched when I saw Dubya tear up at the end of his speech...I may dislike his policies, the decisions he made and questioned his intelligence more than several times but I know deep down he is a good man. He was just surrounded by a lot of sketchy people who gave him so self serving advice. However he was the President and he served during a very very difficult time for our country so I'll always respect him for that.

That being said though I think his brother Jeb is definitely going to run and will ultimately lose in the Republican Primary. Even if he somehow manages to get out of that (which I find highly unlikely) he'll be decimated by Hillary Clinton.

Who do I think is the front runner for Republicans? Marco Rubio of course....but does he deserve it? Absolutely not. The sad thing about him and the Republican Party in general is that they think they can apply a simple band aid to the problem and the problem will just "go away". Just because Marco Rubio is Hispanic that doesn't automatically mean that Lations are going to just miraculously start voting Republican at every level of government. Republican's are utterly incapable of acknowledging the deep wounds they've inflicted on mass psychosis of minority groups.

As a gay black man I can honestly say that I will never cast a vote for a Republican. Even for Republicans I respect like Chris Christie I just couldn't do it because by supporting him I'd be supporting the party as a whole (including the wackos at the local levels).

[NothinButAttitude]

I agree but they'll still use Marco Rubio, who I see is nothing more than a figurehead in an attempt to gain minority votes, to be their presidential or vice presidential candidate. They still seem to associate that people of certain races will automatically vote for a candidate that has a similar background instead of issues. I have some friends that are Republican and they most definitely felt that me and many of my other black friends voted for Barack because he was black. I have to constantly remind them that he's mixed (for one), and I voted for him b/c democrats share the same progressive ideals as me and favor the middle class, a class that I am a part of.

[DRW50]

As I predicted, looks like Mark Sanford will win tonight's SC special election.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/mark-sanford-47-elizabeth-colbert-busch-46-90948.html

A lot of our media elites love to pooh-pooh and sneer cheap stunts like Sanford debating a cardboard cutout of Nancy Pelosi, but generally, this [!@#$%^&*] works. This is not the cocktail party circuit. This is a 60% Romney district. They will probably send him in because of the R and then bounce him in 2014's primary.

Meanwhile, media darling Marco will likely get his way in pushing more anti-gay views in the immigration bill, and, as always, Democrats are happy to throw gays under the bus.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/gay-rights-push-threatens-immigration-deal-90807.html

Marco knows how to pull the con job. He can woo Latino voters while getting positive PR out of shunning those who likely would never vote for him anyway, due to his long history of homophobic legislation and statements. And the media will swoon on cue.

[Delia]

The idea that allowing maybe 40,000 gay foreigners to legally immigrate to America to join their partners is too much or goes too far is ridiculous, especially when the McCain/Schumer bill will result in the eventual legalization of nearly 11 million people! I've read that evangelical organizations have gotten on board this time on the immigration overhaul and Republicans fear they'll lose that support along with support from the House republicans because they are totally, 100% anti-gay. That's a terrible excuse.

[DRW50]

That's the way it goes. They know gay voters have nowhere else to go, Republicans know those votes are gone, so both sides are happy to deep-six basic human rights.

[ThePrinceOfSunspear]

Frankly as an Obama supporter I just want the immigration bill to first pass. Then afterwards we can deal with the gay issue. I say that as someone who likes guys myself....

Its just business. If it doesn't get thru it will be the biggest blow to President Obama's legacy and that I will not accept. I'm just taking a realist view of the matter. If that gets injected into the bill there's now ay it's going to pass this House of Representatives and that's just a fact.

A part of me can't believe Sanford won but another part isn't too surprised given how conservative and backwards SC as a whole is....

[DRW50]

It won't be dealt with. Democrats will likely lose seats in 2014, and Obama and Congress did their best to avoid a lot of stuff in his first term until they either were pushed by legal action (the DADT stuff) or realized they could gain something politically.

[juppiter]

Personally I don't want congress/Obama touching the gay issue (tho I'm aware that former Idaho senator Larry Craig already "touched" it, lol). Nothing except complete marriage equality dictated by the SCOTUS will be acceptable to me. Edited May 12, 2013 by juppiter