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Continuing to rack up the "Ls" on the diplomacy front (what diplomacy?).

 

  • Member

Protestors storm Postmaster DeJoy's apartment complex. I'm surprised but pleased about this!

 

 

  • Member

I can see why Pelosi moved the date up - the optics of waiting a month (especially since apparently that would have been after ballots started going out) would have been awful. Unfortunately I don't think the hearings will do anything, and will just be used by the GOP and the media as a weapon against Democrats. Republicans on the committee will make an ugly display, they will distract, Democrats will be criticized for not doing enough to stop them, and Dejoy will waddle away with the topic safely changed. There's a reason why the media is trying to move people away from this story and onto things like birhterism 2.0 or does Obama think Biden is a terrible candidate, etc. The worst part is I can't even say people may be better off voting in person because, even if I put aside the pandemic, which we can't, more polling places are being shutdown and the GOP are hiring more poll watchers to intimidate voters. Barring a landslide, Trump and his cronies have managed to shut down many Democratic votes from all angles. 

  • Member

The onus is on the GOP now, for sabotaging the post office, hurting not just voters but seniors needing medication, etc. That is the angle and that is the only story on mainstream media, not Fox. That is what is slowing them down on this sabotage now, even more than any hearing, though that will be important. That's why they've begun to back down on their efforts with USPS.

Edited by Vee

  • Member

In another attempt to change the narrative for Trump, CNN (whose main boss has bragged about Trump's help to their network) has a poll out showing Biden up +4. I do believe it's that close (or closer), but the narrative will be dishonest, as the media will do anything to help Trump win. They need him for relevance and ratings. Expect a lot of push this week about his comeback and about blaming Harris, and any efforts possible to ignore stories like these:

 

 

Edited by DRW50

  • Member

LOL, that is the only poll I've seen where it's anywhere near that close. I think it's +7 at worst, myself. CNN needs a horse race, though.

 

I believe in calling the media out early and often, but it's just not true they are ignoring the USPS story or trying to get rid of it. It's been everywhere on TV and in print all weekend and most of last week. I don't expect much from the media at any turn, ever, but this issue is getting a lot of exposure, and that's because public outcry and attention from the people is the only way to pressurize them and in turn the administration. It does work and has worked before, first with George Floyd and defunding/demilitarizing the police and with many other issues. That's how those issues turned overwhelmingly in our favor even in public polling. This is something we've seen before too, because the media was absolutely desperate for a horse race and GOP comeback narrative in both '08 and '12, and neither really worked, though they pretended there was one to the end of the race, even when neither McCain nor Romney had much of a chance. And that's because they were continually pushed and pressured, day in and day out and faced with public and IRL protest and pressure online and offline. That's why the USPS story has taken off in media, it's why the admin is freezing up, and it's why the House is back in session next week and not next month.

Edited by Vee

  • Member

CBS just broadcasted Biden with a 10 point lead on their morning news show.

Are people relying on polls again??  Those relying on CNN should remember that CNN has wild swings in their polling. I'm curious about polls but I'm no masochist, so I think I will take these with a grain of salt, especially the ones with wild swings.

  • Member

Speaking of CNN, this is what they're citing today:

 

 

Poll of the week: A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 53% to President Donald Trump's 42% nationally among registered voters.

 

Biden's advantage is similar in other polls out this past week: Fox News poll (Biden by 7 points) and Monmouth University (Biden by 10 points). The average of all polls puts Biden above 50% and ahead by 8 to 10 points, depending on how you exactly average.

What's the point: Biden's lead has been about as stable as they come. Since the beginning of June, he's been up by around 8 to 10 points. We'll see whether the convention period, that begins tomorrow, alters the race.

 

For now though, we can say Biden's doing better than any challenger heading into the major party conventions since scientific polling began.

In the 13 previous elections in which an incumbent was running for another term, no challenger has ever been at or above 50% in the polls at this point in the campaign. The closest were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Thomas Dewey in 1948. Carter was at about 49%, while Dewey came in at between 48% and 49%.

 

Most challengers were not even near that mark. The average opponent to the incumbent comes in at a mere 38% since 1940. Biden is nearly 15 points higher than that at this time.

 

Of course, It's not just that Biden is scoring a higher percentage of the vote. It's that he is ahead by a significant margin. Again, the only two challengers who were ahead outside the margin of error at this point were Carter in 1976 and Dewey in 1948.

 

The average challenger has been down about 10 points just before the conventions. Biden's up by about that much.

 

Trump, on the other hand, is in a historically weak position. Four other incumbents were polling at or below Trump's current level (George H. W. Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gerald Ford in 1976 and Harry Truman in 1948). Just Truman was re-elected.

 

Unlike Truman though, Trump's net approval rating (approve - disapprove) is in the negative double digits. That makes Trump more like Bush and Carter than like Truman, whose net approval rating was only slightly negative.

 

 

 

What I wouldn't give for a board that does not automatically add anything I put outside the quote into the fúcking quote. (And bans people)

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