How long can they last?

[BoldBeauty]

How long do you think the remaining 4 soaps can last? What is your estimation? Give them a number of years!

Y&R:

B&B:

DAYS:

GH:

???

My guess:

Y&R: 7 years

B&B: 5 years

DAYS: 3 years

GH: 2 years

[John]

Y&R 5 years

B&B 5 Years

Days 3 Years

GH 9 Months

[SFK]

My hunch is that Y&R or B&B will not outlast the other (at least not by long). I have a feeling they will be dual cancelled someday, like AMC and OLTL, or staggered by a year or so like GL and ATWT.

[Carolyn1980]

GH-gone in September 2012

DAYS-gone in September 2013

B&B-gone in November 2013

Y&R-gone in September 2014

[reallyhateskateonlost]

Unless a miracle happens, GH will be gone by spring 2012.

DOOL, Y & R, B & B within two years.

[tune_in_tomorrow]

I don't have much else to add to Carolyn's predictions (which I think are the dates the current contracts run through, correct?) except that if Y&R were to chop down to a half-hour and reduce its cast, it and B&B could stumble on for another year or two longer. I'm not predicting this, nor have I seen any indication that anyone in power would even consider it, but maybe that would be a significant enough cut in expenses that it might be worthwhile for CBS to continue a little longer with demos in the 1.0-1.4 range. The ratings will just continue to decrease because that's what ratings do, and you can't keep cutting budgets forever, so even if this were to happen it would only be a stopgap for a year or so to get something else in there. Short of something drastic like that, I agree that all will be gone when the contracts are up...maybe even sooner if those contracts are structured in a way to allow that kind of an out.

[Max]

If we're talking about how long they will last on television, these are my predictions:

GH--Last airs in September 2012 (though there is a slight chance that it could last until September 2013)

DOOL--December 2015 or early 2016 (DOOL always gets lucky come renewal time, so I think it will stay on NBC until its 50th anniversary)

B&B--It's possible that it could end in 2013, but more likely that its last CBS episode will air in the second-half of the decade

Y&R--Will still be on television past 2019 (its ratings are still very impressive for daytime, and HHs are not meaningless, especially for CBS)

However, I believe that these soaps (with the possible exception of GH) will make the transition to the internet, so the final televison episode won't be the end for them. If AMC or OLTL had actually made it online, I think that they would have lasted an additional year or two. The same prediction generally holds true for whatever soap is the first to make the online move (though since both GH and DOOL fans are more rabid than fans of the Nixon soaps, their chances of lasting more than a few years online are somewhat greater). Since GH and/or DOOL will be the first soaps to transition online, this will give a huge advantage to the Bell soaps (since they will be able to learn from the missteps made with the first move online). I believe that B&B has the longest future of any soap, because of its huge international popularity. Previously, foreign ratings meant little, but relatively soon a cancelled U.S. soap will be able to move online and still be broadcast on international television. Because of this, it is not a major stretch to suggest that B&B will be around (in some form) for another 20 years or more.

[BingCherry]

GH- May 2013 (I have a weird feeling that it'll get a stay of execution, but not for long I think)

Days- December 2013 (I feel like it'll get an extension to give more finality)

Y&R and B&B- September 2014, but I feel like B&B will continue outside of CBS for a while longer

[Carolyn1980]

Wow. Could I bet you a trillion dollars that you're wrong about this? (WTF, make it a "bajillion")

[Max]

To the best of my knowledge, B&B is the most popular television show in the world. Its domestic popularity is waning, but people overseas still crave it. The advances in internet technology combined with the business savvy of the Bell family will mean that a CBS cancellation cannot kill it.

It's unfortunate, but P&G and ABC did not have the foresight to market their soaps overseas. Perhaps if they had, those shows would still be around. (I'm sure that at the peak of their American popularity, these soaps would also have been hugely successful in Europe.)

[Eric83]

Aside from GH, which is clearly going next year, I don't think any of the other ones are predictable. They are family owned (at least partly in Y&R/DAYScase) and I doubt they are going to let these shows end without a fight.

[Chris B]

I want one soap producer to look at the fact that talk shows are 40% cheaper than soaps. Then I want that smart producer to look at a way to reinvent that soap with a much smaller cast, good production values and a new fresh direction that can keep ratings strong and the budget down. I don't understand why nobody has tried to produce their soap with a similar budget in an attempt to save it. That's the only possible way to save any soap, yet nobody sees that it seems.

[Khan]

Have we forgotten The Great Peapack Experiment?

[John]

I can agree with that all

ABC Owns GH and wont sell it so when it ends,

However YR &B&Bare Owned By Bell Studios and Days is owned by Sony who also owns a piece of YR sothe comapnies xould try and sell to another station wheter broadcast or cable

[Chris B]

I don't really count that considering what a bad producer Ellen Wheeler was. She tried everything and it was a disaster Peapack or not. Even that idea was a great was that was just painful in it's execution. But you don't have to sacrifice the look of the show to get that budget down 40%. These casts simply need to be cut. Everybody throws a fit when people are fired, so cutting 10-12 contract cast members and writing out families would probably drive them insane. Still, it needs to be done. Most of the actors that would get fired hardly get used anyway. These soaps are stretching themselves way too thin.