I refuse to accept that only the 18-34 or 18-49 demos count. I'm not being naive...I'm saying the mathematics are changing. It's not that straightforward anymore.

That said, I'm struck by how the "numbers down" for Y&R last week and last year are so similar (-51K, -71K). That's because we're now at the point where Y&R had the precipitous drop last year (massive tuneout due to disgust with the Sabrina story, some gathering anti-Rowell protest, and a general perception that the show had NOT improved and was boring despite being in a post-LML era).

My point is this: -71K is NOT bad...it could be +71K next week. We have finally hit the point of one-year stability for Y&R. Assuming that it does not decline further (not a safe assumption), some of these CBS shows, esp. Y&R and B&B may have a relatively straight-line function (instead of continued decline) for the next little while.

Indeed, in my analysis of longer-term ratings trends, the last year represents an interesting shift, because the actually RATE of absolute HH ratings decline has slowed. If that holds up, then soaps may be entering a new steady state of being a "low, niche-market, stable" kind of programming. And if THAT holds up, it will make the soaps different from all the other parts of the networks, which are still in free fall.

Very interesting times may be ahead...and I'm not being naively optimistic. What I'm starting to see in the longer-term trend is that the soaps may be the ONLY part of the network lineups that are no longer in rapid decline. If true, that bodes well for their short-term survival.

Moreover, this is true on all three networks: Days, AMC/OLTL, and Y&R/B&B. In each case, the shows seem to have bottomed out last year...and now they're staying fairly consistently at bottom...but not worsening.

Longer-term trends suggest that while GH is in free fall, it has the best statistical probability (of the ABC soaps) of actually rebounding.

So, the BIG risks are GL (gone) and ATWT. Since ATWT has been cancelled (I know people don't believe that, but it has...the number crunchers at CBS see the EXACT SAME THING I do when analyzing the trends), we may be left with a fairly robust set of six surviving soaps, at least for the next 2-3 years.

B&B is down, though, in all categories as well from last year. I know many assume B&B must be safe because it's aired in so many countries, but CBS doesn't see a dime of that money. If B&B doesn't do well in the demos, it will be as dead as GL (and likely ATWT) within the next few years, at least on CBS. The production company might try to syndicate it if CBS dumped it, but Santa Barbara was pretty popular internationally, too, and that wasn't enough to save it.

B&B is down, though, in all categories as well from last year. I know many assume B&B must be safe because it's aired in so many countries, but CBS doesn't see a dime of that money. If B&B doesn't do well in the demos, it will be as dead as GL (and likely ATWT) within the next few years, at least on CBS. The production company might try to syndicate it if CBS dumped it, but Santa Barbara was pretty popular internationally, too, and that wasn't enough to save it.

Yes, and even in the "unimportant" HH numbers, it has definitely staggered. But even there, it actually fell some time ago...so the one-year figures will start to show stability before too long.

I may be pie-in-the-sky, but I actually feel B&B is nimble enough that it could pull itself up (somewhat).

I wish we could get the online viewing figures. Those have a much higher probability of being in the desirable demo, and I have to believe those numbers are growing. So, how small are those numbers? None of us will probably ever know.

B&B is down, though, in all categories as well from last year. I know many assume B&B must be safe because it's aired in so many countries, but CBS doesn't see a dime of that money. If B&B doesn't do well in the demos, it will be as dead as GL (and likely ATWT) within the next few years, at least on CBS. The production company might try to syndicate it if CBS dumped it, but Santa Barbara was pretty popular internationally, too, and that wasn't enough to save it.

Very interesting. I think B&B is complete trash.

I would much rather see GL saved. You read an interview like the Nancy Curlee interview and you realize what a rich history GL has had, yet the deep as a plate B&B is gonna clog the airwaves? Go film it, and air it- in Italy, permanently.

Edited April 11, 200916 yr by rangethatrover

And i hope Days kicks B&B's ass this summer, and i think it will. Brad Bell should be ashamed of his product.

B&B is down, though, in all categories as well from last year. I know many assume B&B must be safe because it's aired in so many countries, but CBS doesn't see a dime of that money. If B&B doesn't do well in the demos, it will be as dead as GL (and likely ATWT) within the next few years, at least on CBS. The production company might try to syndicate it if CBS dumped it, but Santa Barbara was pretty popular internationally, too, and that wasn't enough to save it.

Good points about B&B. I have always thought that its time slot and international popularity would save it, but you make valid points. B&B is likely in more danger of being cancel than we realize. Y&R and GH are likely to be the last 2 standing soaps when all is said and done. I say it here all the time, but I find it shocking that so many soaps will be gone. GL's cancellation is a reality check.

Good points about B&B. I have always thought that its time slot and international popularity would save it, but you make valid points. B&B is likely in more danger of being cancel than we realize. Y&R and GH are likely to be the last 2 standing soaps when all is said and done. I say it here all the time, but I find it shocking that so many soaps will be gone. GL's cancellation is a reality check.

And the ATWT news made it even clearer.

And the ATWT news made it even clearer.

The rumor is that CBS only gave ATWT a one year renewal, right?

The rumor is that CBS only gave ATWT a one year renewal, right?

It's not just a rumor, it's true. In fact, CBS has only been giving the P&G shows one-year renewals for a few years now.

It's not just a rumor, it's true. In fact, CBS has only been giving the P&G shows one-year renewals for a few years now.

The rumor is that the one-year renewal is the LAST renewal.

The rumor is that the one-year renewal is the LAST renewal.

Okay, that makes sense. I can see CBS calling it a day with ATWT also. Now they would be dealing with the two higher rated soaps.

The rumor is that the one-year renewal is the LAST renewal.

I don't believe that's set in stone. At this point, I'd say it's likely, lol....but if the new programming ($25,000 Pyramid?) tanks in a big way, I think they'd stick with ATWT a little while longer.

Now if the new programming is particularly profitable for CBS, I could see ATWT and B&B dropping like dominoes over the next few years.

From what I read Pyramid is one of the contenders to replace GL. Pyramid may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I have to admit that I find it a fun game show. I would watch it, not an hour, but I could capture my attention for 30 minutes, until I turned to CNN

1.(1) Y&R: Monday: 3.8/5,431,000 (+649,000)

2.(2) B&B: Monday: 2.5/3,358,000 (+132,000)

3.(6) OLTL: Monday: 2.0/2,896,000 (+204,000)

4.(5) AMC: Monday: 2.0/2,768,000 (+31,000)

5.(4) GH: Monday: 2.0/2,745,000 (-34,000)

6.(3) DAYS: Monday: 2.1/2,635,000 (-414,000)

7.(7) ATWT: Monday: 2.0/2,552,000 (+47,000)

8.(8) GL: Monday: 1.6/2,081,000 (+49,000)

1.(1) Y&R: Tuesday: 3.6/4,895,000 (-536,000)

2.(2) B&B: Tuesday: 2.4/3,104,000 (-254,000)

3.(4) AMC: Tuesday: 2.1/3,021,000 (+253,000)

4.(3) OLTL: Tuesday: 2.0/2,915,000 (+19,000)

5.(6) DAYS: Tuesday: 2.0/2,746,000 (+111,000)

6.(5) GH: Tuesday: 1.9/2,563,000 (-182,000)

7.(7) ATWT: Tuesday: 2.0/2,549,000 (-3,000)

8.(8) GL: Tuesday: 1.6/2,061,000 (-20,000)

1.(1) Y&R: Wednesday: 3.7/5,105,000 (+210,000)

2.(2) B&B: Wednesday: 2.5/3,317,000 (+213,000)

3.(5) DAYS: Wednesday: 2.3/3,135,000 (+389,000)

4.(6) GH: Wednesday: 2.0/2,767,000 (+204,000)

5.(3) AMC: Wednesday: 2.0/2,706,000 (-315,000)

6.(7) ATWT: Wednesday: 2.0/2,672,000 (+123,000)

7.(4) OLTL: Wednesday: 2.0/2,506,000 (-409,000)

8.(8) GL: Wednesday: 1.8/2,387,000 (+326,000)

1.(1) Y&R: Thursday: 3.7/5,058,000 (-47,000)

2.(2) B&B: Thursday: 2.5/3,358,000 (+41,000)

3.(3) DAYS: Thursday: 2.3/2,959,000 (-176,000)

4.(5) AMC: Thursday: 2.0/2,646,000 (-60,000)

5.(7) OLTL: Thursday: 1.9/2,580,000 (+74,000)

6.(4) GH: Thursday: 1.9/2,553,000 (-214,000)

7.(6) ATWT: Thursday: 1.8/2,448,000 (-224,000)

8.(8) GL: Thursday: 1.7/2,344,000 (-43,000)

1.(1) Y&R: Friday: 3.8/5,183,000 (+125,000)

2.(2) B&B: Friday: 2.6/3,487,000 (+129,000)

3.(3) DAYS: Friday: 2.1/2,857,000 (-102,000)

4.(7) ATWT: Friday: 2.0/2,803,000 (+355,000)

5.(6) GH: Friday: 2.0/2,591,000 (+38,000)

6.(5) OLTL: Friday: 1.9/2,484,000 (-96,000)

7.(4) AMC: Friday: 1.9/2,407,000 (-239,000)

8.(8) GL: Friday: 1.6/2,209,000 (-135,000)

I don't believe that's set in stone. At this point, I'd say it's likely, lol....but if the new programming ($25,000 Pyramid?) tanks in a big way, I think they'd stick with ATWT a little while longer.

Now if the new programming is particularly profitable for CBS, I could see ATWT and B&B dropping like dominoes over the next few years.

What a great point! Pyramid could tank! Especially if it is bedeviled by the same lack of clearances and odd timeslots of its predecessor.

Of course, the marginal earnings needed to pay for the much cheaper Pyramid mean that the show could fare much worse and still be a relative "net gain" for CBS.

But if ATWT wants survival, it should not only clean up its creative house, reduce its costs, promote (virally) like CRAZY, but it should PRAY to all relevant deities that Pyramid sinks like a stone. Low ratings, and everyone who watches should be 60 and older. That would really help ATWT!

It's definitely not a good sign when the head honchos of CBS are taking a hardfast look and seriously paying attention to their line-ups!!! Especially CBS.

Edited April 12, 200916 yr by JimTolkien