The Politics Thread

[Vee]

I'm not going to say Nate has gone over to the other side, but I do think he has an ego about his model which has its flaws. And no, I'm not buying its wild swings anymore. I believe it dropped 8 points for HIllary this morning at random, then swung back 2 more. All based on bizarre modeling. I think people like Sam Wang are being a lot more clear-headed about the ebb and flow, the wild swings.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Vee

[DRW50]

I'm reluctant to focus on the poll sampling because I remember the "unskewed" movement in 2012 for Romney. The media loves Trump and a lot of people will never support Hillary. I think it will be a very tight win for her at best, and we are pretty much seeing that. My main concern is if the "Trump wins" debate headlines tonight and the general fear and anxiety gripping the country help push this further toward him.

[JaneAusten]

When I hear polling numbers skewed toward Trump I keep wondering where all these voters are coming from because aside from non college educated white males, Trump is losing every other demographic and he's even trailing Romney's numbers in that demographic. Hillary wins women, college educated white males, African Americans, Latinos(the last 2 by Obama margins) and every other demographic so I am not really sure how this leads to a Trump win. I remember Ohio being called for Romney the day before in 2012 and Obama winning it by 2 percentage points.  So unless voter turnout is really low(and no I do not believe it will be Sorry and I think minority voters have even more at stake and know it) I just can't fathom it.

 

As for the debate I don't think it's going to change how anyone feels. I don't buy that there are a zillion undecided and they are going to be swayed. Debates really have never made a difference other than in the short term. It might help confirm peoples decisions to vote the way they already are but in terms of swaying, no way. And we all know the media is going to declare Trump the winner, I am sure the scripts have already been written.

 

CSpan by the way is going to do real time fact checking as the debate is going on for people who are interested.

[DramatistDreamer]

I don't watch this webseries regularly but I did watch when POTUS was on discussing ACA and over the weekend I did watch HRC's episode (as well as Tina Fey's) but I came across this today and thought it was interesting.

 

[Juliajms]

I don't think I can watch either.  I know intellectually HC can wipe the floor with Trump, but I think this is going to end up being a shameful debacle. I'll watch the coverage once it's over.

[Ms. Quartermaine]

My students are asking me if I'm going to watch the debate. I said, "I don't want to talk about it." Their social studies teachers have assigned them to watch it and compare/contrast the candidates' immigration views. (They could just check their websites, lol). Wonder how much is going to be even dedicated to immigration. Probably, emails, foundation, emails... make America great again by doing something fantastic and tough, and more emails, and maybe the Iraq war vote. I have to look at the Holt's chosen topics again.

[quartermainefan]

Debates matter.  They have trotted out the clips again and again of bumbling Al Gore and his sighing and saying Lockbox, Ford not realizing half of Europe was under the control of the soviets, George Bush and his watch,,,debates can affect how people see a candidate, just ask Marco Rubio or Dan Quayle. 

Every election there is one or two great moments at the debates that can stand the test of video replay:  I loved when Obama told Romney that not only does the Navy not have as many boats, but they also don't have as many bayonets.  

[JaneAusten]

In terms of changing the direction of an election they have not mattered. That's factual. Romney beat Obama in the first debate and leveled the race out but that bounce only lasted a couple of weeks(and before the next debate happened Obama was back ahead). I think from reading articles the only race changing debate was Reagan/Carter in 1980.

 

 

New polling(a crazy day)

■NBC: CLINTON +7

■MONMOUTH: CLINTON +4

■ECONOMIST: CLINTON +4

■MARIST: CLINTON +7

■AP: CLINTON +6

■PEW: CLINTON +7

 

New Rueters/IPSOS poll has Clinton +4 in Florida

[Vee]

It got Al Capone too.

[Ms. Quartermaine]

Trump stand in during Clinton prep:

 

[Ms. Quartermaine]

WHY AM I WATCHING?! 

[Vee]

She's ready. "How are you, Donald?"

 

This is going very well. Unspinnably well.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Vee

[Vee]

He is incredibly angry that he can't bully her.

 

And she is working him.

[Ms. Quartermaine]

Thanks for updates. I turned it off a couple minutes in. Too scared. 

[Vee]

No, watch this. He is melting down. She is perfectly poised.

Edited September 27, 2016 by Vee