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DramatistDreamer Grand Master

DramatistDreamer

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Also, the unnecessary ringing of hands of Dems can only be tolerated for so long before it becomes very very tiresome. I understand not wanting people to become complacent by  downplaying chances but it risked encouraging people to feed into a doom loop of hopelessness. Hopefully this will give people some positive reinforcement. 

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janea4old Grand Master

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For anyone who can't see the whole tweet:

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I think a full page graphical editorial in the NYT against Tr*mp..
is obviously needed on all media,
but especially NYT since he did that full-page ad in that paper against the Exonerated Five.

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j swift Grand Master

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My polling journey this year.

  • July: National polls don't matter we have to focus on the swing states
  • August: Kamala's up in polls, hooray
  • September: They're polling the wrong people, this is not predictive
  • October: Voraciously reading every story saying the polls are tools of the media to keep us involved, and she's going to win in a landslide (while worrying that the polls could be true).
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DRW50 Grand Master

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It's difficult to trust polls, but when many are starting to lean one way and I'm also seeing some Harris supporters on Twitter who seem to be more in the know than I am (like that Swann Marcus account) diving so deep into crosstabs, it does make me wonder just how bad things have gotten that we're unaware of.

I think the worst part is that Trump tends to drag Republicans up when he's on the ballot (the main exception was 2020 Georgia Senate for several unique reasons), and a number of forecasters seem to think Republicans are getting a full sweep. That means no one can check him, and we sure as hell know the media won't.

Another article from Michigan. The positive is the Harris campaign is much more involved than Hillary, but, like 2016, the fear is the election is all about stopping Trump, not about Harris. I am wary that the public will just go for the enemy they know, especially when he isn't up against a white guy. That, and Trump is at his peak of popularity, so he isn't even the enemy to a lot of voters.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/27/democrats-michigan-trump-fear

At the big hate rally right now, they have a "comedian" joking about black people and watermelons and calling Puerto Rico a garbage dump. Of course, the audience loves it, and they will likely improve their performance in NYC this year. The more the party openly embraces bile, the more I fear the public seems to embrace them, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.

More bigotry from Wisconsin.

 

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Vee Grand Master

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But the polls are not leaning negatively, is the thing. The polling and early vote/mail numbers are shifting towards a distinctly positive result for us. Unless you're looking at something I'm not.

I also am not seeing any sort of sweep predictions re: Republicans from anyone credible.

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DRW50 Grand Master

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Most of the big polls I've seen of late seem to lean to a tie (NYT, CNN) or a narrow Trump win (NBC/WSJ), which is why CNN and others are trying to claim he may win the popular vote. There are state polls going in any number of directions but overall I do think momentum has been going his way. The early vote is all over the place but a lot of the analysis seems to be based on how things will be better for Democrats in places like Georgia or Nevada if there's a last minute heavy turnout of younger voters, or black voters, etc. rather than positive directions in the current date.

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Vee Grand Master

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That's something I pointed out over the last two or three pages: They're all suddenly herding to a tie now vs. posting tiny Trump leads and calling that 'huge momentum' because they're now coming back to Earth vs. the sugar high of pretending there's a big Trump comeback. And in most key states Harris is either up or at the very least tied. If anything I think it shows we've regained momentum after a foggy week or two.

Meanwhile, look at the Black/Latino numbers re: Harris posted earlier or at the shift in voters building in Nevada or Michigan over the last two days. I don't think you can call that inexorable Trump momentum. Just the opposite. Already in NV you have Republicans whining and tweeting that the steal has begun. That's where we are today.

Meanwhile:

When you look at the numbers whether it's about polling, approval, voter turnout and the shifting over the weekend, as Jain and others have said, doom city just does not pan out.

 

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