The Politics Thread

[Vee]

 

 

[DRW50]

Thanks for watching so some of us didn't have to @Vee . One talking point that will go around (I saw the father of a Parkland victim pushing this on Twitter) is Walz misspeaking that he has befriended school shooters.

I see that the narrative from Deadline, Acosta (as you posted), etc. is that Walz went easy on him and let opportunities slip. I imagine we'll be hearing that one a lot. And CNN going on about how Walz wasn't prepared enough and hadn't done enough interviews (the establishment media are still very sore about not being kissed up to enough).

Vance is such a nasty [!@#$%^&*] that going into the debate seeming "normal" and appeasing the voters who are appalled by how visibly decayed Trump is but still want to support him was probably his main goal, and I guess that succeeded, I don't know. 

Walz was going to be seen as the loser no matter what, because that's what the narrative demands, but he didn't seem to flame out the way Tim Kaine did in 2016. 

Other than the Biden/Trump debate this June I generally don't think debates make a big difference and I don't think this one will either (I do think reluctant Trump supporters will claim the debate moved them, but they were going to vote for Trump anyway). 

Edited October 2, 2024 by DRW50

[Wendy]

It's not at ALL scientific, but if one cruises the hellhole that is TwitX, the MAGA set seems to be in meltdown and screaming about biased mods again and Walz "lies". Which tells me that Walz must have acquitted himself well enough.

[Vee]

He isn't, though. It's widely being seen as a draw/tie, and the big takeaway was Walz nailing Vance on J6. Walz was def not a skilled debater but I'll take a tie and that key clip for us. That's all we really needed, and we got it. They needed Vance to do a comeback tour for Trump and be a MAGA attack dog - he didn't and wasn't.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Vee

[janea4old]

Vance seemed way more coherent and polished than expected.
He was hiding the fact that he's an evil lunatic, with terrible plans for all of us.

I need that facade to crack badly.

Edited October 2, 2024 by janea4old

[Wendy]

Based on the "damning non answer" clip, it looks like it did, at the end.

[Wendy]

Seems the theme of all the flash post-debate polling is just what @Vee has described: A statistical tie.

And for a candidate who is not a starched suit like Walz, that is actually pretty damned good, to me.

[DRW50]

I think it may among neutral parties, but most of the media isn't neutral. Beyond those I mentioned before, Politico also went on about Vance winning, his pink tie, and how much Walz could be hurt by his answer about Tiananmen Square (only one of their editors said no one would care). I don't think it's going to move a lot of votes, debates don't, but it's going to help set the storyline they have craved over how Vance is actually a great pick after all, and Harris should have gone with Shapiro or Buttigieg or whoever. At a time when Trump seems to be regaining momentum in polls (if you trust polls) this is another step forward for him.

[Vee]

I don't think he's regaining that much momentum in that many polls, though - Harris is still up or tied/variable in most key states. And again, most of the media is saying it was a tie, not calling Vance the winner, and Vance was nailed by the 1/6 question. So where's the comeback narrative? Vance isn't surging as a VP so there isn't any redemption narrative for him, and not much has changed. Hopeful tweets from Republican journalists at Politico don't make a narrative work; if they did Romney would've won.

Oh, and there's this:

 

Edited October 2, 2024 by Vee

[DRW50]

It tends to be sprinkled everywhere. I just saw a Guardian piece going on about how the Trump campaign is so sure the debate helped them. They know how to make these moments what they want to make them. The debate in of itself won't matter, but anything that benefits Trump or is perceived to benefit him per the press is going to be held onto for dear life by those in power. 

[DRW50]

I see Bulwark has piled on as well.

It's all such navel gazing and just furthers Republican talking points each time. A reminder of how much even 'allies' put themselves first over their supposed goal.

I was going to add this to the other post but apparently I can't edit it...

[JaneAusten]

I think people first of all are overestimating this debate. Some of you sit here are claim Vance was civil. How many of you are women? What was evident to me was his overtalking 2 female moderators and trying to do the mansplaining.  Now let me backup. Is he a skilled debater yes. Hell he was a debater at Yale. But any women watching this knew what we saw.  

People have forgotten how often GWB was beaten in debates. Didn't the pundit class declare it so. It's why people have come to despise these people. I can't tell you especially as a woman how much I have come to despise these people. Because many of them in fact including many women are so condescending to other women it makes me scream. But getting back to GWB, he underperformed.  But people thought he came across as authentic and real.  As the debate progressed Walz got better.  He came across as authentic but he was too prepped with facts.  No damage was done and the end is the debate was a draw.  Vance IMO did not improve himself at all. He came across as a slick used car salesman.

[Khan]

I'm not surprised that JD Vance agreed with Tim Walz so much and so often.  Midwesterners like Walz have this strange ability to help people meet in the middle, lol.

[Vee]

The Bulwark likes Walz (but prefers Shapiro, of course) and despises Trump. I don't have much use for the Bulwark people or trust them in the long-term because I remember who they are and where they come from, every single one of them. When we win they should be disposed of because they'll do the same to us. But I appreciate their killer instinct because I remember that from the 2000s too, and frankly Democrats need more of that to destroy MAGA (which will not end immediately, it'll take awhile). I do think they're right that the Trump cult may not take well to nice Vance from last night - it's not who they wanted or needed up there, but it's how he burnishes his brand to attempt a run in '28.

Anyway:

Polling:

 

[janea4old]