The Politics Thread

[janea4old]

re: previous post, on the fire at the drop-off ballot box in Clark County, Washington State:

fyi, Clark County, Washington is part of a U.S. congressional district of Wash. State -- a district that votes liberal in some towns and very conservative in other towns.
(The district borders Portland Oregon on the south but is also comprised of some very conservative rural areas)
Complicated district.

Ms. Jaime Herrera Beutler was the Congresswoman from that district previously (2011 through January 2023).
She's a Republican who voted against impeaching Tr*mp in 2019,
but then was one of the few Republicans who voted in favor of impeaching him in 2021.
In general, she supported Republican stances and Tr*mp's agenda most of the time; but January 6th was too much for her and she supported the establishment of the Jan 6th Commission.
Herrera Beutler lost in the 2022 Republican primary to an election-denier (Joe Kent). 
A Democrat won the Nov. 2022 general election for that district, defeating Joe Kent.

The district was won in 2022 by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is a "Blue Dog Democrat".   She began serving in January 2023.
She is running for reelection in 2024, against the same Republican election denier (Joe Kent) that she defeated in 2022.

Edited October 28, 2024 by janea4old

[DRW50]

 

[Vee]

 

[Vee]

 

[DRW50]

I don't think he will either. He does seem more popular now than he was in those years, and the media is working hard to help him, but I think Harris will still narrowly scrape through the popular vote. The only part that makes me hesitant at times is the early voting numbers and some of the anecdotal stories (not worth a lot, admittedly) about how reluctant some are, even when they are voting for her. Another from Michigan:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-us-voters-economy-is-personal-they-blame-democrats-2024-10-28/

Edited October 28, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

The Cook report, which has spent months propping up Trump and cheering on his imaginary pivots to seriousness or gains, very belatedly wondered a couple days ago if the only reason the polls are so close is because they have finally stopped underestimating Trump but that this is in fact his ceiling, which means Harris will wipe him out. I think they're finally right. We'll see.

 

[JaneAusten]

It's possible. I haven't been closely following polls, but I did read something a while back - can't remember where - that pollsters samples were R+2.  This was allegedly to account for the Trump bump.  Can't remember where, so maybe not but who knows.

[Soapsuds]

The polls are skewed to make Trump look good. Kamala margin is more than the polls are showing. That's what was said early this morning. 

[Vee]

 

 

[Wendy]

 

[DRW50]

Like I thought, Republicans got the talking points (Vance mentions Lopez after a lot of "liberals can't take a joke, wah wah"):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/vance-racist-jokes-trump-rally-stop-getting-offended-rcna177711

I don't think this is going to be some type of balm to bring back alienated voters, but I've lost count of how many times Republicans have made ugly comments and after brief anger, people move on. They find ways to distract.

Among them today - getting brain dead leftists to join them in believing lies that Walz said he was going to make AOC Speaker. A Daily Mail story being spread by Marco Rubio and others claiming Walz had an affair with someone's daughter in China back in the '80s. 

Sometimes I think these don't break out beyond the usual crowds who already love Trump anyway, but tonight I was listening to a podcast and the hosts were liberals or quasi-liberals and kept saying "Tampon Tim" because they thought it was intended as a compliment to him. 

The terrain has shifted so much to where I just assume Republicans get whatever narrative they want. I hope the comments do make a difference, but I just don't have that ability anymore. Not after 2016.

[Vee]

Of course they did. My point though was that it's not going to penetrate to most of the general public. They don't have a clue what this Lopez thing is about, and the mainstream media is not backing it or sanewashing this rally (probably because it was in NYC, the berth of the media apparatus). It doesn't make sense to assume that the GOP gets any narrative it wants and automatically declare their preemptive messaging victory when time and again that's proven to not be the case on things like this, at least as many times as it has.

Nor is anyone outside of the right wing going to care about a Daily Mail story about Walz's Chinese girlfriend. There is a reason Walz's favorables remain sky high - it's because none of their attacks on him have actually worked. That is my whole point.

Meanwhile:

 

[Vee]

 

 

 

[Vee]

NC appears to have a pretty clean 3-way vote split today in early voting - blue, red and independents. Almost identical totals. If we get even half those indies (and I think we will get more than half) it is ours.

In other news: This is not the own the very online right thinks, lol. Somehow I don't think is going to drive Walz's already sky-high favorability rating with the general public down. Blowing a young woman's mind in bed to the strains of "Careless Whisper," the beloved song that launched a thousand memes? It's only going to endear him further!

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Edited October 29, 2024 by Vee

[Vee]