The Politics Thread

[DramatistDreamer]

The ideal time to have saved the planet was likely several decades ago but this seems promising, at least.

 

And more importantly, there is this.

 

 

It had to chortle at the fact that China, which couldn't bother to show up, is now grousing about not being able to tongue-lash other countries by video message, but was instead limited to a written message, which no doubt, will lack the impact Xi will have wanted.

No word from Putin, the other no-show.

[Max]

Does anybody want to predict today's marquee races (not only who will win, but also by how much)? I'll post my predictions, but keep in mind that these predictions are heavily influenced by recent polling, which could very well be garbage (witness a "respected" poll that had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points as Election Day 2020 approached, or the fact that Susan Collins wasn't ahead in a single poll last year).

Polling is extremely scarce in New York City, but based on what I've seen, Eric Adams will defeat Curtis Sliwa by over 30 points. (In a post I wrote earlier this year, I wrote that there was an outside chance of Adams winning by only a 10 to 15 point margin. But for that to have occurred, NYC Democrats needed to be in disarray on Election Day, and a severe crime wave would have had to taken place.) Beyond Adams' 30+ point margin of victory, it's hard to make a prediction. However, I'm pretty sure that Adams will not replicate Bill de Blasio's 48.84% margin of victory over Republican Joe Lhota, as voters were extremely hungry for change in 2013 after 20 years of Giuliani and Bloomberg. And I'm guessing that Adams won't do quite as well as de Blasio did in 2017, when he defeated Nicole Malliotakis by 38.58 points (as I suspect that de Blasio fatigue will have some effect on Adams' margin of victory).

In New Jersey, a generic Democrat typically defeats a generic Republican by about 15 points. Though incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy will not defeat his Republican opponent, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, by that much, I do predict a nine or ten point Murphy victory. One very interesting factoid is that despite New Jersey's dark blue tint--it hasn't voted Republican for POTUS since 1988 and has not elected a GOP senator since 1972--Murphy would become the first Democratic governor to win a second term since the late Brendan Byrne accomplished this feat in 1977. (Note, however, that Democrats did win back-to-back gubernatorial elections in 2001 and 2005.)

Given how Democratic Virginia has become, I am very reluctant to predict that a Republican will win statewide. That said, I'll listen to the polls and the pundits and predict that Glenn Youngkin will defeat Terry McAuliffe by about a point. So much has already been written about the awful race that McAuliffe ran and the effect Biden's unpopularity is having on him, but I think McAuliffe is also being hurt by the aftermath of the Ralph Northam blackface scandal. (And none of us knows for sure if he was the one in blackface or if he was the one in the KKK costume; so many people are just taking Northam's word for it.) I do believe that the Northam scandal did play a part in McAuliffe's apparent failure to adequately link Youngkin to Trump, and I couldn't believe how idiotic McAuliffe was to have made campaign appearances with Northam. Plus, a 2019 statement of McAuliffe's came to light in which he absurdly suggested the infamous Northam photo was a youthful mistake (and then began to question whether Northam was in that photo at all):

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/22/politics/kfile-mcauliffe-northam-blackface-scandal/index.html

Regardless of how the Virginia gubernatorial election turns out, I do think that too much is being made regarding its impact on next year's midterms. Here's a good article that discusses the historical correlation between the Virginia gubernatorial contest and the subsequent midterm election:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-last-word-on-virginia/

Edited November 2, 2021 by Max

[DramatistDreamer]

Eric Adams defeating Curtis Sliwa is not a difficult prediction to make. NYC is overwhelmingly Democratic and Sliwa is a kook who offered nothing on his platform but bizarre campaign ads. I predicted he'd win before anyone even voted during the Democratic primary.

Not to sound rude or dismissive, I'm just not in the mood for further predictions, as I feel like it's become a kind of game, and this is real life.

[marceline]

I'm done letting polls damage my calm ever again. Pollsters and pundits thought the CA recall would be close, that Eric Adams would lose the NY mayoral primary, and that Nina Turner had a snowball's chance in hell of winning OH-11.

Someone on the ground I trust thinks T-MAC will be fine and the turnout seems to be really, really good. At some point maybe it's time to admit that polling in the current environment is broken for all sorts of reasons and adjust accordingly.

As for Manchin, he's just flexing for his constituents back home. He'll do the right thing. He usually does.

I remember all this. But the truth is that when people were pushing for Northam to resign, polls showed that 60 percent of Black voters wanted him to stay. As soon as I saw that, I knew he wasn't going anywhere.

Edited November 2, 2021 by marceline

[Vee]

Yeah, I'm just going about my day and hanging loose turning into the skid. Whatever happens or doesn't, most of the media narratives are pre-written. If it turns out for us, watching them slowly, grudgingly be undone is always a fun process. If it doesn't it's not like we don't have an insane amount of work to do as is.

[DramatistDreamer]

I mean, I already did my civic duty and voted. What others do (or don't) on this day, I have no control over. No use in me obsessing about it.

[Vee]

 

 

[Vee]

Today in, well, this:

 

[DramatistDreamer]

It seems cruel to keep 17 cats in a studio apartment in NYC, but maybe it's just me.

[amybrickwallace]

I have a feeling that Gizmo is infinitely smarter than his/her human.

Please register in order to view this content

I did, too - before 7 am!!

[Wendy]

Dave Wasserman calls VA Governor's race for Glenn Youngkin:

 

[DRW50]

He's a hatemonger who has been lauded to no end by the press as an "optimist" and as the ideal.

Never forget, unless you are a rich white person (ideally a man, ideally a straight one on top of that), the media hates you and wants you dead. 

People fall for this every time. Hate and bigotry in different wrappings sell well, no matter what. It's hard to even get through each day knowing that. I admire anyone who can or does. 

[Ponds]

My gawd, I'm on the west coast so haven't seen a picture of Curtis Sliwa in 40 years.......he's an old fart now.....but so am I.

[Juliajms]

I can't believe it's legal.  It would be nutty and cruel to keep that many cats in a large house never mind some little apartment. The sanitation issues alone would be a nightmare.

It's been the better part of a year since I felt that way. Then yesterday with that CNN front page of little girls being sold to old men for food money.  The suffering in this world is horrific. If you want to live you have to block most of it out, but there are just days when it's impossible. Hang in their Carl.

[DRW50]

@Juliajms Thank you. Same to you. That CNN report sounds awful.

This account will also give you many results from different state-by-state elections.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1455757339169067008

The dead end left has already zeroed in on India Walton's loss in the Buffalo mayoral race to the incumbent she had beaten in a primary (he went the write-in route), claiming Democrats cared more about beating her than Republicans. Failures and grifters like Nina Turner have also chimed in. They won't have much to say about it, but Walton made some serious errors:

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by DRW50