The Politics Thread

[Juliajms]

She's so much smarter.  She deserves to win.

 

[Max]

I've got a couple of unrelated thoughts:

 

*I will gladly vote Democratic in my House race. (I live in a district that currently has a GOP member of Congress but is favored to be a Democratic pickup.) I would like to be able to vote Democratic in the Senate race, but I just cannot do it (and will most likely vote Republican). If Bob Menendez loses, the ultimate blame does not rest with independents and anti-Trump conservatives. Rather, the ultimate blame lies with the NJ Democratic Party (and the national Democratic Party, to a lesser extent) for making the morally reprehensible and politically brain-dead decision to rally around Menendez in spite of his history of corruption. Even if Menendez wins (which seems likely, given that he has always been ahead in the polls and given that NJ last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1972), the NJ Democrats' decision to support Menendez was political malpractice; that's because NJ is such an expense state in which to run, and the money that the Democrats have had to spend to defend this race could have been put to much better use elsewhere.

 

*I personally think that this election is extremely hard to predict. While it seemed obvious to me that 1994, 2006, 2010, & 2014 were going to be wave years for the party that was out of power, I would not be surprised if the Republicans maintain control of the House, nor would I be surprised if there is a massive Democratic wave. Part of the difficultly in predicting this election stems from just how flawed the pollsters and the pundits were in recent election cycles.

 

*If the polls are to be believed (though as I indicated above, the polling industry has had a lot of problems in recent years), one of the most surprising and underreported developments of this election cycle is how much GOP candidates have been struggling in the Rust Belt. The Rust Belt was the crucial region of the 2016 election, since it was where the biggest swing from Obama to Trump occurred. Additionally, the Rust Belt is more demographically favorable to the GOP than the country as a whole. But despite all that, the Senate races in PA, OH, and WI have never been competitive, and the same holds true with the PA governor's race. Democrats also hold comfortable leads in MI's Senate and gubernatorial races. In the dark red states of IN and MO, the Senate races are toss-ups. And Democrats are favored to win the governor's races in IA, OH, and WI.

 

*In the previous bullet point I mentioned that Democrats are favored to defeat Scott Walker in WI. Watching Scott Walker's fortunes decline has been one of the more interesting developments in recent political history. When the 2016 election cycle began, I actually expected him to be the GOP nominee and was extremely surprised that his presidential bid fizzled. (As of matter of fact, he was only the second GOP candidate to drop out of the race in the entire field of seventeen.) I think it's quite possible that Trump's entry into the race hurt Walker more than any other GOP candidate, since the two politicians appeal to many of the same types of voters. Trump sucked all the oxygen out of the room, and Walker's blandness became a political liability that he couldn't overcome.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Max

[Juliajms]

@Max It will be interesting to see how the pollsters do this year.  Nate Silver has the chances of the Republicans keeping The House at 20%.  That's really not a terrible chance.  If someone said I had a 20% chance of dying tomorrow, I'd be checking to be sure my affairs are in order.  To me the number of races they get right will be more indicative of their effectiveness than if they call individual outcomes correctly. 

 

 

[Vee]

[Juliajms]

To my utter shock it turns out I know the professor that was being targeted here.  He's a conservative (politically liberal) Jew. He and his wife are friendly acquaintances because we have children of similar ages, so she is always inviting me to events. This is just crazy to think that these goons threatened to unleash their crazys on him just when another conservative temple was being attacked.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeff-fortenberry-nebraska-professor-threats_us_5bdb343ee4b01abe6a1c4ca8

[Vee]

[alphanguy74]

Geez... they get more nerve every day.  Using someone's song without permission at their stinkin rally,  and all the while demonizing every OTHER person from that part of the world. It just gets worse every day. 

It's all up to turnout.  If every one on our side turned up to vote, the Republican party would disappear. 

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/

[DRW50]

This is a woman the NYT ran a puff piece on as part of their "Women for Trump" feature today.

 

 

The NYT and the media are so desperate to get a win for Trump and the GOP at any cost (you can see how giddy they are over tightening ballot numbers - you could see how giddy and gleeful wastes of space Savannah Guthrie and Chuck Todd were over Trump going out and making the race about him this past week) that they actually promote a con artist. 

[DramatistDreamer]

Trump hates black people yet he cannot resist using aspects of our culture, including our music to try to boost his appeal. And according to his calculation, Rihanna would hail from one of those sh*thole countries he can't stop railing about. Hmph.  I hope Rihanna and Pharrell sue his ass off.

 

Interesting stat presented here.

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by DramatistDreamer

[marceline]

A great thread about how Trump supporters don't care that he's lying. It's a cult.

 

 

[alphanguy74]

To be honest with you, a big chunk of these people are just too stupid to know the difference.  They voted for Trump because they are angry that theyv'e been "forgotten" (Michael Moore is spot on) , but the reason they have been forgotten, and don't have jobs, is that they just don't have the intelligence to ascend in society. 

[DRW50]

NBC tries to go "oopsies" after already a racist, fear-mongering ad on a hugely watched football game.

 

 

I am beyond sick of this channel of Trump supporters and GOP sycophants who have become increasingly emboldened about showing us all who they really are. I am boycotting their network until Andrew Lack is gone. 

[ClassicTVShowsFan]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/pamela-anderson-says-supernumbermetoo-movement-is-a-bit-too-much-and-feminism-is-a-bore/ar-BBPlkgS?li=BBnbfcL&ocid=iehp

[Juliajms]

I wonder if this will backfire just enough to lose tomorrow.  Far too many people are on board with his message, but I don't think they have the majority.  I may be wrong, but I don't think most people like the way the country has changed over the last two (but really three) years.

[DRW50]

 

Honestly I am expecting the worst. If we get something good I will just be pleasantly surprised. I am mostly hoping if anyone is moved by this hate speech, they were already voting for bigots anyway.