If this lethargy continues, when will daytime die forever?

[Sylph]

Since nowadays everyone is soo excited about all these beautifully written soap operas, when do you expect this comatose torpor to turn into death?

Certainly, I was the one who kept repeating that no one is going to cancel the soaps until the networks find a successful business model to replace them. But looking at these ratings week after week, these awful shows, total disinterest and disappointment from the fans... These shows have their days counted.

I don't even believe that if by any whatsoever microscopic chance someone fires Bloom, Frons etc. and replaces them with someone who knows how to run daytime, these shows will recover...

I'm absolutely stunned by these developments...

Does anyone still believe that a well-written show equals good (and increasing) ratings?

[DaytimeFan]

While I do believe that a well written show equals stable ratings...I think the days of making increases are over. The goal, if I was a daytime executive, would be to maintain the numbers and the demographics, keeping things stable because, currently, the business model absolutely succeeds. Soap absolutely print money, not as much as they used to certainly, but they are still profitable.

In order to gain this sort of stability the writing has to be there. So does the casting. So does the marketing (which is one area which has been decimated). Soaps need promotion in order to 'hook' viewers.

I firmly believe that the 'daytime' industry will be long gone in the next 10-15 years. At the current rate of ratings decline a point will come where a steady stream of cancellations will begin. It's anyone's guess which show will die first. GL, AMC, DAYS...who knows. The point is that within 10-15 years all the soaps will likely be gone. The only one which may survive is B&B, the youngest soap on the air and one which makes enough money overseas to warrent survival. Perhaps Y&R will still be here and perhaps GH...but that's not a certainty, that's a longshot.

Television is in a state of major evolution, things are changing faster than ever and not always for the better.

[Cat]

While the horrid writing is the #1 reason for the haemorraging in audience numbers, I'm wondering whether moving Daytime to the 5-8pm slot might help, so that after-schoolers and people coming home from school could catch their show. Then again, that might be its death-knell.

[JackPeyton]

It will die, then it will emerge again.

[Jess]

There is no soap that is well-written right now.

They will die and I hope that come back in a form that is more consumer friendly. It will take a while though. Yes they are done and many of them deserve to be done. You know, all of these people who live for soaps to be what -- and who -- they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago -- are not doing the genre any favors in my opinion.

[Ann_SS]

I used to think that the soaps would be off network tv in 10 years, but if Y&R's ratings continue to decline so steeply, maybe 5 years is more likely. I think that soaps will go the way of game shows which used to be huge for the networks for several decades. Now there are only three surviving game shows (Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune and the Price is Right) on network tv and the one or two remaining game shows are syndicated and only shown in specific geographic regions. B&B and Y&R will probably survive on network tv, while GH and its primetime counterpart, Nighshift may be on SoapNet. The rest of the soaps will be canceled. Society changes and viewing habits change. There are simply not the numbers of viewers in the key demographic to keep soaps on network tv for much longer. I hope that I will be proven to be wrong.

[dragonflies]

I think if they put people in charge who actually care about the soap genre, IMO it can thrive and flourish.

The big problem nowadays we have IIC who have their own agendas and try to shove that agenda down viewers throats *coughFronsCordaycough*

[JackPeyton]

I still dont think TPTB dont care and are trying to kill soaps.

I just think they suck at the job and need to be fired. But i dont think they want to kill the soaps.

[All My Shadows]

Actually, WoF and J! are both syndicated game shows. TPIR is the one and only network daytime game show and it has been since 1994. I think it's ridiculous that it's come to this, though. Once upon a time, soaps and game shows went hand in hand in daytime, but as the dramas grew in size (30 minutes to 60 minutes), the game shows got bumped off. Fortunately, much of the morning syndication in my area is game shows ("Wheel of Fortune," "Jeopardy!," "Who Wants to be a Millionaire," "Merv Griffin's Crosswords," "Family Feud"), but I still think that it would be wonderful to have soaps and game shows working together on networks again.

I just do not get it. People wonder why soaps are dying, yet they don't realize that daytime's most successful period was back in the 1960s-1980s. Why aren't they looking to the ways things were done then? I'm not calling for the shows to become old-fashioned serials with nothing but characters over the age of 60, because that's not what they were back then. They were shows that were able to blend together characters of all types of generations and backgrounds in stories that made sense and not only entertained the audience but also made them think about their own life. At the same time, there's a large element of escapism that's lost in some soaps (coughGHcough). People like to watch soaps to throw themselves in a world that isn't their own sometimes, but when you have regular murders and other random acts of violence, who wants to throw themselves away in that world?

[MarkH]

Sylph, all, this is the end.

I can't say when...but as we all know...the next soaps will drop...maybe as early as 2009, certainly 2010 and 2011...and the momentum will continue.

I think there will be no daytime serial dramas by 2020. JP talks about rebirth...and yes the serial formal will continue to thrive...but not ever again the same. Primetime dramas (whatever that will be) will clearly continue to be serialized. I see no future for daily serials, except maybe these abbreviated things that are turning up on the internet.

You know, I'll stay with Y&R for a very long time, but (again paraphrasing Kay Alden at MIT) maybe I'll finally get the excuse to break my habit.

I am trying hard to convince myself that today's transitions could be a GOOD thing.

[evermore]

It seems to me like there are a finite number of people currently watching soaps, and when I see the ratings I often wonder how many of the million people watching one show are also among the 1.1 million watching any other show. I keep wondering why OLTL's ratings havne't gone up along with the quality of the show, and I can only guess that longtime viewers have already picked their favorite show, are sticking with it, and not sampling the others. And who has the time anymore to devote 5 hours a week to a TV show? With so many more channels and choices than there were in the olden days, it's a big commitment. I keep reading good things about ATWT, a show I've never watched, but I barely have time to watch OLTL and definitely don't have time to watch both.

I don't know what will happen. Maybe some shows will migrate to cable or to syndication. There are still many channels out there with ratings far lower than the big 3's, and many of them would be happy to take the gamble if it's affordable to them

[JackPeyton]

I do think it will be back. no not in this 11a-3p over the top melodrama way. but it will be back, IMHO.

Perhaps in a 3p-6p style of halfhour soaps more in the style of B&B. But i do think soaps will be back.

at this point tho, they all must die to move forward. there is too much of a past and a history with both fans and the stigma they carry with them.

[dragonflies]

People said sitcoms were dead, then along came Seinfeld, Friends, etc... and that genre came back to life.

IMO there's life left in this genre, we just need people in charge who know what the hell they are doing

[Cat]

That's what I mean! At a time when more people can catch them (I prefer 4-7pm or 5-8pm but that's just me)!

And I think half-hour shows might be better for soaps in the long-run. It might even mean more soaps.

Interesting, and I can see why you make the point you do. Sometimes it's like fans are imprisoned by their nostalgia of, say, the 80s and 90s (I know that sometimes happens with me when I watch Days). However, I think the history is a source of strength for these shows. It usually assures a loyal core audience. Just look at OLTL right now. Its astute reconfiguring of the fans' historical ties with the show are being used to drive the show forward.

And as Zendall Fan said, there's life in this old genre yet. Even with the ratings at death's door, I truly believe that. These past few weeks especially, thanks to B&B and OL.

[dragonflies]

I don't think it would work, I lived in California in the late 80's and GH there was on at 4PM and in that timeslot it flopped really bad. I just don't think timeslots like that would work for soaps.

IMO if people are gonna watch, they're gonna invest in watching no matter what time the soaps come on......

Personally I feel that if soaps get cut to a half hour it will be the death of them, shows like GH, OLTL, AMC, ATWT just won't survive the half hour format......