August 15-19, 2011

[EricMontreal22]

Hey

I get that, that's not what I meant, but Carolyn explained it. My point was it zseems more and more futile to go after that female demo for the daytime first and foremost when you're gonna find a lot fewer of them--but she made it clear in a way that's part of the appeal as to why it's prized. I do think that male demos (for all of daytime--not just soaps) soon should start to matter a bit more--I know nearly as many (or few) men who are home in the day and work at night or work at home, or raise families as I do women my age (I'm 30) or in their 20s, but I know these kinds of ratings and demos are very slow to change, and I guess it wouldn't make much of a difference. (And admittedly it's not like the daytime male tv ratings are anything anyone would be too eager to persue at the current numbers).

[EricMontreal22]

Except, despite OLTL being underbudget or *whatever*, won't The Revolution still be awfully significantly cheaper to make? Not just slightly cheaper?

I can't imagine ABC picking OLTL back up if The Chew flops--a lot of this seems like ego to me, and I can't picture them backtracking so quickly. Of course there's always spin and they could make up some excuse and try to save face, but...

Of course primetime used to get significantly higher numbers as well--and reruns used to (for whatever reason) do a lot better in primetime than they often do now (some sitcoms like Big Bang Theory aside) .

[Max]

Chyti, +1 for this comment

With all due respect to Carolyn, her theory about OLTL returning to ABC is little more than wishful thinking on her part. The irony here is that she is 100% certain that Y&R, B&B, and DOOL will be yanked from network television once their contracts are up.

[Carolyn1980]

DOOL and B&B haven't done as well as OLTL recently in the demo that counts, women 18-49. And I don't see OLTL staying on ABC long-term, just maybe long enough for Katie Couric's show to start.

As for Y&R, CBS doesn't own it, and it's only doing 0.1 better in the women 18-49 demo right now than GH (or OLTL, for that matter). And GH, despite ABC's ownership, is toast next September.

[Llantano Incorporated]

You are so clearly NOT a OLTL fan and enjoy the potential of its downfall. lol! I can't stand Days and this reboot holds no appeal to me. But I am sure Days will have a HUGE bounce because Days has huge potential and has proven it has a large reserve of fans who will tune back in. I don't "get" the show and have tried it again recently.. Back to OLTL, I am up in the air as to whether it can continue to do so well. I have not enjoyed the show this much in years.

[TeamEric]

Well, I called it a mixed bag because:

1) the show didn't meet the high expecations for the big reveal week;

2) the show can hit 3 year highs in viewership yet the percentage of 18-49 viewers remains low, only 27%.

In contrast, GH has proven over the past year, its spikes can lure close to 1 million 18-49 viewers. If this Two Todds story had spiked demos to even near 1 million even once, ABC would feel really the pressure.

As is, sadly ABC's point has been validated. Despite beating GH handily each week in viewers, OLTL only manged to beat GH once in the 18-49 demos over the last 3 months. GH remains the more attractive product to sell to advertisers. And OLTL has proven the product aging more rapidly. AMC's big anniversary gains last year proved it could not lure back 18-49 viewers either so both soaps were canceled.

You're quite right ONLY demos matter.

As for the CHEW, I'd be watching to see if their percentage of 18-49 viewers improve over AMC's abysmal 20-22%. If not, ABC has a real problem on their hands because ONLY demos matter... and demo percentages of total viewership is a key stat for advertisers.

[DRW50]

I don't think it matters how high the demos go. GH is going next year even though they hit close to a million in 18-49. ABC is done.

[Carolyn1980]

Actually....no. The percentage of 18-49 viewers doesn't matter at all. You could have a show on daytime that had 100 million viewers, and if only 2% of those viewers were women 18-49 (2 million of them), it would far and away command more advertising dollars than any other show currently airing.

[TeamEric]

That's as extreme and unrealistic example as saying there's a show with 100 hundred million male viewers but it can only attract 2 mil females. The percentages do not break that extreme, they never have.

I stick with AD WEEK's analysis on what advertisers look for, and they did list demo percentages as being key factors. Also listed was percentage of affluent viewership. Advertisers are really micro-targeting more and more.

[TeamEric]

ITA ABC is clearly done with soaps.

[aMLCproduction]

In fact I am a OLTL fan. If I wasn't a fan so what? Just like you aren't a fan of the Day's reboot. SO what is the point to all of this?

All this bickering and back and forth is non sense in this thread. OLTL is doing great we all know that. We all know demos only matter thanks to the Demo police in this thread. Etc. Etc. We keep going in circles in here

[Carolyn1980]

Of course my example was extreme...but it was designed to make a point. Percentage doesn't matter....raw numbers DO matter.

Advertisers ARE micro-targeting, but as I said, percentage of 18-49 viewers really doesn't matter. ALL THAT MATTERS is how many 18-49 viewers there are....period.

[EricMontreal22]

I think it won't be that long till they (and all networks?) are done with all afternoon programming and it'll just be syndicated stuff--by the end of the decade absolutely anyway. Shows like The Chew don't seem created with ANY sense of longevity, foreign sales, etc. They're stop gaps.

[Saving ATWT]

Recently, I read that NBC was trying to pimp Days with the cable news 25-54 demo. In a way, I could see this making sense for soaps but doubt it will really increase ratings. WHO is watching within 18-49 has become more and more important which is why we see less and less diversity on daytime.

(I believe, eventually, that the WHO will soon matter more than age as it becomes easier to profile viewers via the web. I don't think soaps bring in many high income viewers which is a big part of all this cancellation drama.)

[chyti]

This is it in a nutshell, daytime television viewing has changed, dvr, netflix, on-demand, cable has taken the eyes from the soaps and there is no going back. The networks aren't looking to replace soaps with programming that will last another 20+ years and sorry to say the public doesn't want that either. Shows like the talk and the chew are they for a specific purpose and they are or will fulfill that. Disney/ABC is done they are not regretting their decision at all, they do not think they made a mistake because quite frankly they didn't.

Carolyn is right the most elusive viewer is the most sort after and that just happens to be the viewer between 18-49 and has everything to do with the fact that this group watch the least amount of tv and no it is not because they are watching their shows on the computer either. It's supply and demand the more there is the least valuable it becomes.