Hey Eric

I am an older viewer and not in the demo wanted but i do more shop swapping than anyone. I dont stay with one product unless I truly love it.

Hey

I get that, that's not what I meant, but Carolyn explained it. My point was it zseems more and more futile to go after that female demo for the daytime first and foremost when you're gonna find a lot fewer of them--but she made it clear in a way that's part of the appeal as to why it's prized. I do think that male demos (for all of daytime--not just soaps) soon should start to matter a bit more--I know nearly as many (or few) men who are home in the day and work at night or work at home, or raise families as I do women my age (I'm 30) or in their 20s, but I know these kinds of ratings and demos are very slow to change, and I guess it wouldn't make much of a difference. (And admittedly it's not like the daytime male tv ratings are anything anyone would be too eager to persue at the current numbers).

That said, yes, daytime soaps are no longer as profitable as they once were....but OLTL was still profitable when it was canceled. And for The Revolution to retain the same profitability for ABC, it would still have to garner at least a 0.8 in the key women 18-49 demo...and there is no guarantee it will.

Except, despite OLTL being underbudget or *whatever*, won't The Revolution still be awfully significantly cheaper to make? Not just slightly cheaper?

I can't imagine ABC picking OLTL back up if The Chew flops--a lot of this seems like ego to me, and I can't picture them backtracking so quickly. Of course there's always spin and they could make up some excuse and try to save face, but...

Well, to put part of that in perspective....even at the peak of the soap ratings in the 1980's, they were also doing no better than what primetime repeats were getting, lol. That 8.0-9.0 rating in the 80's was at times even lower than repeats in primetime were getting at the time. (And in the 18-49 demo, Y&R, GH, and OLTL have been the top shows in daytime for most of the summer).

Of course primetime used to get significantly higher numbers as well--and reruns used to (for whatever reason) do a lot better in primetime than they often do now (some sitcoms like Big Bang Theory aside) .

Well, what is profitable to you may not be to Disney and unless you know exact numbers and can state them I am going leave the money issue alone because if OLTL was as profitable as you are stating it would not be getting cancelled. Bottom line is Disney likes making money and if these soaps were making them money on the level that they wanted they wouldn't be where they are now.

I really doubt that OLTL is ever going to see it's self on ABC daytime again, I could be wrong but I am thinking that if either The Chew or Revolution fail that ABC will just go with another talk show. I just really doubt that ABC leased OLTL and will now turn around and pay PP to air them in their orignal spot that is not smart business at all, if Disney had an indication of changing their minds with OLTL they would have jumped on the PP plan and air them on one of their cable channels (Soapnet would have been a great outlet until it changed to Disney Jr, with it's built in soap audience).

Chyti, +1 for this comment

With all due respect to Carolyn, her theory about OLTL returning to ABC is little more than wishful thinking on her part. The irony here is that she is 100% certain that Y&R, B&B, and DOOL will be yanked from network television once their contracts are up.

Edited August 27, 201114 yr by Max

Chyti, +1 for this comment

With all due respect to Carolyn, her theory about OLTL returning to ABC is little more than wishful thinking on her part. The irony here is that she is 100% certain that Y&R, B&B, and DOOL will be yanked from network television once their contracts are up.

DOOL and B&B haven't done as well as OLTL recently in the demo that counts, women 18-49. And I don't see OLTL staying on ABC long-term, just maybe long enough for Katie Couric's show to start.

As for Y&R, CBS doesn't own it, and it's only doing 0.1 better in the women 18-49 demo right now than GH (or OLTL, for that matter). And GH, despite ABC's ownership, is toast next September.

GH beat OLTL on Monday. Y&R keeps getting lower and lower. This is the second or third week that they had 4.2 million viewers one day of the week.

I just hope and pray MAB and Hacks are on their way out

If thats the case then look at B&B dead last.

You are so clearly NOT a OLTL fan and enjoy the potential of its downfall. lol! I can't stand Days and this reboot holds no appeal to me. But I am sure Days will have a HUGE bounce because Days has huge potential and has proven it has a large reserve of fans who will tune back in. I don't "get" the show and have tried it again recently.. Back to OLTL, I am up in the air as to whether it can continue to do so well. I have not enjoyed the show this much in years.

OLTL increased in the demo. That's where it matters so it didn't lose ground. No spin there. Reality.

Well, I called it a mixed bag because:

1) the show didn't meet the high expecations for the big reveal week;

2) the show can hit 3 year highs in viewership yet the percentage of 18-49 viewers remains low, only 27%.

In contrast, GH has proven over the past year, its spikes can lure close to 1 million 18-49 viewers. If this Two Todds story had spiked demos to even near 1 million even once, ABC would feel really the pressure.

As is, sadly ABC's point has been validated. Despite beating GH handily each week in viewers, OLTL only manged to beat GH once in the 18-49 demos over the last 3 months. GH remains the more attractive product to sell to advertisers. And OLTL has proven the product aging more rapidly. AMC's big anniversary gains last year proved it could not lure back 18-49 viewers either so both soaps were canceled.

You're quite right ONLY demos matter.

As for the CHEW, I'd be watching to see if their percentage of 18-49 viewers improve over AMC's abysmal 20-22%. If not, ABC has a real problem on their hands because ONLY demos matter... and demo percentages of total viewership is a key stat for advertisers.

Edited August 28, 201114 yr by TeamEric

In contrast, GH has proven over the past year, its spikes can lure close to 1 million 18-49 viewers. If this Two Todds story had spiked demos to even near 1 million even once, ABC would feel really the pressure.

I don't think it matters how high the demos go. GH is going next year even though they hit close to a million in 18-49. ABC is done.

As for the CHEW, I'd be watching to see if their percentage of 18-49 viewers improve over AMC's abysmal 20-22%. If not, ABC has a real problem on their hands because ONLY demos matter... and demo percentages of total viewership is a key stat for advertisers.

Actually....no. The percentage of 18-49 viewers doesn't matter at all. You could have a show on daytime that had 100 million viewers, and if only 2% of those viewers were women 18-49 (2 million of them), it would far and away command more advertising dollars than any other show currently airing.

Actually....no. The percentage of 18-49 viewers doesn't matter at all. You could have a show on daytime that had 100 million viewers, and if only 2% of those viewers were women 18-49 (2 million of them), it would far and away command more advertising dollars than any other show currently airing.

That's as extreme and unrealistic example as saying there's a show with 100 hundred million male viewers but it can only attract 2 mil females. The percentages do not break that extreme, they never have.

I stick with AD WEEK's analysis on what advertisers look for, and they did list demo percentages as being key factors. Also listed was percentage of affluent viewership. Advertisers are really micro-targeting more and more.

Edited August 28, 201114 yr by TeamEric

I don't think it matters how high the demos go. GH is going next year even though they hit close to a million in 18-49. ABC is done.

ITA ABC is clearly done with soaps.

You are so clearly NOT a OLTL fan and enjoy the potential of its downfall. lol! I can't stand Days and this reboot holds no appeal to me. But I am sure Days will have a HUGE bounce because Days has huge potential and has proven it has a large reserve of fans who will tune back in. I don't "get" the show and have tried it again recently.. Back to OLTL, I am up in the air as to whether it can continue to do so well. I have not enjoyed the show this much in years.

In fact I am a OLTL fan. If I wasn't a fan so what? Just like you aren't a fan of the Day's reboot. SO what is the point to all of this?

All this bickering and back and forth is non sense in this thread. OLTL is doing great we all know that. We all know demos only matter thanks to the Demo police in this thread. Etc. Etc. We keep going in circles in here

That's as extreme and unrealistic example as saying there's a show with 100 hundred million male viewers but it can only attract 2 mil females. The percentages do not break that extreme, they never have.

I stick with AD WEEK's analysis on what advertisers look for, and they did list demo percentages as being key factors. Also listed was percentage of affluent viewership. Advertisers are really micro-targeting more and more.

Of course my example was extreme...but it was designed to make a point. Percentage doesn't matter....raw numbers DO matter.

Advertisers ARE micro-targeting, but as I said, percentage of 18-49 viewers really doesn't matter. ALL THAT MATTERS is how many 18-49 viewers there are....period.

Edited August 28, 201114 yr by Carolyn1980

ITA ABC is clearly done with soaps.

I think it won't be that long till they (and all networks?) are done with all afternoon programming and it'll just be syndicated stuff--by the end of the decade absolutely anyway. Shows like The Chew don't seem created with ANY sense of longevity, foreign sales, etc. They're stop gaps.

It's not that the 50+ demo is undesirable (that's a myth), it's that the 50+ demo is easy to find, so it's cheap to advertise for. Just about every show on TV has a huge 50+ audience, so advertisers aren't willing to pay a premium for them. (They can advertise on just about any primetime show and reach a substantial 50+ audience). They pay a premium for viewers that are more difficult to find, and those are the key demos.

Advertising rates are set by certain demos on broadcast TV, and never on households/viewers. Those demos are:

Women 18-49 for daytime.

Adults 25-54 for morning news shows, network evening news, and Sunday news shows.

Adults 18-49 for primetime shows, and late night shows. (A BIG premium is paid for men 18-34 in primetime, since they are notoriously difficult to find....and the CW sells based on women 18-34).

Then there are the niche markets, like Nickelodeon for instance, who sells based on the 2-11 demo (seriously).

There is NO PROGRAM that makes money based on households/viewers, period. Even the SuperBowl is sold based on its 18-49 potential.

Recently, I read that NBC was trying to pimp Days with the cable news 25-54 demo. In a way, I could see this making sense for soaps but doubt it will really increase ratings. WHO is watching within 18-49 has become more and more important which is why we see less and less diversity on daytime.

(I believe, eventually, that the WHO will soon matter more than age as it becomes easier to profile viewers via the web. I don't think soaps bring in many high income viewers which is a big part of all this cancellation drama.)

I think it won't be that long till they (and all networks?) are done with all afternoon programming and it'll just be syndicated stuff--by the end of the decade absolutely anyway. Shows like The Chew don't seem created with ANY sense of longevity, foreign sales, etc. They're stop gaps.

This is it in a nutshell, daytime television viewing has changed, dvr, netflix, on-demand, cable has taken the eyes from the soaps and there is no going back. The networks aren't looking to replace soaps with programming that will last another 20+ years and sorry to say the public doesn't want that either. Shows like the talk and the chew are they for a specific purpose and they are or will fulfill that. Disney/ABC is done they are not regretting their decision at all, they do not think they made a mistake because quite frankly they didn't.

Carolyn is right the most elusive viewer is the most sort after and that just happens to be the viewer between 18-49 and has everything to do with the fact that this group watch the least amount of tv and no it is not because they are watching their shows on the computer either. It's supply and demand the more there is the least valuable it becomes.