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Toups

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Taniel is right about Cohn's sneering narrative-setting piece which insists that Trump is not only the 'change candidate' but the 'political center.' I'd forgotten how much Cohn shrugged off voter suppression and cheered on the imaginary red wave in 2022.

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Because it's always been a tight race and because Harris has more work to do. She only got hard launched in July, which is unprecedented for any general election, ever. The fact that she's this competitive is remarkable. I happen to think she can break away from Trump and I happen to think it may not end up being close, but she's got more to do, particularly in the debate.

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If Trump is experiencing a bump in the polls, then it's likely due to Trump supporters rallying around him in the wake of the "Arlington situation" and questions about his mental fitness for office.  

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The scary thing is that there are enough of them to give him a bump in the polls.

Any other politician (if you can refer to Trump as that) would have been dead and buried if they acted like Trump and said the things he does. It is still (and always will be) a mystery to me why nothing he says or does seem to hurt him in any meaningful way.

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I don't believe he's getting a bump either.  Trump's long past the point of winning over anyone who isn't won over by him already.  At this point, if you're not voting for Trump or for Harris, you're likely voting third party or just staying home.

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