Because the variability can make it hard to see the real TREND, here are the smoothed linear trends for the minima and maxima. Same story, but a little clear to see without the vagaries of seasonal variation.

It actually looks a little better this way, but I caution it is misleading. As you can see, the maximum line over-estimates the true maximum in recent years? Why? Because the REAL trajectory of the maximum rating is -- brace yourself -- quadratic or accelerated. In recent seasons, the true maximum is declining at a faster rate than this line implies.

So, below, I now show the quadratic trends. These are a little misleading too (remember...they are model-based estimates, not actual data), but they tell stories I didn't expect. The model implies that (a) the minimum has bottomed out! We're there! and ( the maximum is trending toward the minimum, at an accelerated rate...but not as fast as I subjectively felt. Small mercies :-)

Linear model-based estimates of minimum and maximum ratings decline:

Linear + quadratic model-based estimates of minimum and maximum ratings decline:

Oooh, I'm all tingly! But I expected a Markov process-type of modelling! Or at least, a polynomial model!!

Mark and Sylph, the networks would LOVE to have you two working for them! LOL!

Oooh, I'm all tingly! But I expected a Markov process-type of modelling! Or at least, a polynomial model!!

Well, this is a lower order polynomial. I do know how to do the more complex stuff, but when it comes to time trends, simpler often tells a simpler story.

As for the Markov stuff...I'm actually interested in coupled time series. But I had to wrap my head around how to do it. I think I figured it out today. That's what Memorial Day is for. Geeky fun.

Well, this is a lower order polynomial. I do know how to do the more complex stuff, but when it comes to time trends, simpler often tells a simpler story.

As for the Markov stuff...I'm actually interested in coupled time series. But I had to wrap my head around how to do it. I think I figured it out today. That's what Memorial Day is for. Geeky fun.

OK that's it. You guys are just scaring me!

I'm kidding. I really just wanted to add my gratitude for all the charts and graphs. I'm a complete math loser so the visuals help. Although saying Memorial Day is for making graphs and working with data? That just breaks my heart.

ABC soaps rose. Damn I wanted GH to fall!

Glad to see AMC/OLTL rise!

Ouch to ATWT 2.0 in HH

Yay for OLTL! The Best Soap On The Air finally went up!!!!!

Well, this is a lower order polynomial. I do know how to do the more complex stuff, but when it comes to time trends, simpler often tells a simpler story.

As for the Markov stuff...I'm actually interested in coupled time series. But I had to wrap my head around how to do it. I think I figured it out today. That's what Memorial Day is for. Geeky fun.

Thanks for all the analysis - its really interesting -given that you are using stats software of some sort and have the data, maybe you can please calculate something - the various autocorrelation for each soap for each season - I've never seen anyone test to see if people really are less loyal over time or more loyal , where loyal is implied by propensity to watch this week, given they watched last week... you dont have to if you dont wanna, i know its kinda boring Thanks for all the analysis anyway

B&B been good.

Okay I wasn't going to read the ratings this week but I'm glad I did. Yay for OLTL going up!!!

ETA: Thanks Toups

Edited May 22, 200817 yr by Laurie

ABC soaps rose. Damn I wanted GH to fall!

Glad to see AMC/OLTL rise!

Ouch to ATWT 2.0 in HH

LOL..sorry to burst your bubble. GH is the daddy soap of ABC. theirs no way AMC/OLTL will surpass GH EVER. but i like your signature.

Edited May 22, 200817 yr by shawn Perez

2.7 for b&b! that's a catastrophe! What I don't understand is that b&b has gained 24 000 viewers compared to last year, and yet, the HH dropped by .3 !!!

ATWT dropped so much. Not good for the show.

Good for OLTL. The show deserves a bump in the ratings.

ATWT sucks and no amount of fan fare can hide that from the audience for long.

Umm, is GL's HH correct, this was last week:

8. GL 1.7/6 (same/-.3) <------- ties low rating

How can it be -.1 and still at 1.7?

What on earth is it going to take to get JP fired, good god, the show had a 2.4 during the strike and moving up, then the week she came back, down it went, and down every week since then, and now back to the all time low, FIRE THAT HACK!

[!@#$%^&*]

ATWT's drop is only -.1 from the previous week. I think it's a bloomin' miracle considering the state the show is in and the dumps Y&R and B&B are taking.

Don't ask me how we can be +230,000 from AMC in total viewers, and yet tied with them in HH. (I'm not asking for an explanation---it makes my head hurt. It just sucks.)