May 12-16, 2008

[MoTheGreat]

I hope while Y&R keep losing viewers. B&B gains.

Is this true! Because somebody claim they was predicting but saw it somewhere else.

[dede261]

Gh probably will still remain at 2.2. Gh needs a new HW

[wiccachick_1]

hehe...I know. I meant that I hope they get a bump for last week's ratings but I REALLY want one for this week's stuff too.

I'm greedy like that! LOL!

ETA: Thanks, Angela...you were exactly right!

[Sylph]

MarkH,

could you make two graphs: one showing the ratings minimums, the other the maximums over the years?

[dragonflies]

LOL sorry I misread your post

[wiccachick_1]

hehe...s'alright. Happens to me allllll the time!

Yesterday was a gift from the soap gods for me. With AMC opening with great Zen, Greg seeing Tad, Opal (MORE OPAL PLEASE...sung to the tune of MORE OVALTINE...hehe) and Greg with baby Jenny, and the best soap wedding in forever. AMC really rocked...

plus having a GOOD J&R scene on GH put me right over the top....still not on board with GH getting a bump though. The show is still a hot mess.

[MarkH]

You mean just plot two lines: Minimum rating in each year and Maximum rating in each year? Sure.

[Sylph]

Or that! Thank you!

[MarkH]

Voila! (Watching too much Victor and Sabrina on Y&R)

[Sylph]

Thank you! A very interesting graph...

[MarkH]

As in, the maximum is trending to the minimum. The minimum, which used to be the threshold of cancellation, has stayed pretty flat for 50+ years. And now the maximum is trending toward the minimum, suggesting the best rated of the genre is trending toward the threshold of cancellation.

Yup, I'd say it was interesting.

Thanks for proposing it.

I should also add, because I am very interested in variability, that I find it interesting that the lines have SMOOTHED over the recent years. That implies several possibilities to me:

First, the network emphasis on reducing pre-emptions post-OJ has caused greater stability of viewership.

Second, we're down to a core loyal audience that does tend to stay tuned no matter what sh*t makes it to air :-).

I do wonder what the HELL happened in 1965 to spike the minimum AND maximum so much :-). Soaps were apparently ON FIRE that year. The years of minimum spikes coincide with the introduction of major new shows (e.g., Y&R in 1972-73 season), so one gets a sense that there were times when new shows actually GREW THE BASE for soaps overall. I'll bet there was actually promotion back then!

[Sylph]

Precisely!

Saaad days are ahead of soaps. This is just terrible.

[MarkH]

Because the variability can make it hard to see the real TREND, here are the smoothed linear trends for the minima and maxima. Same story, but a little clear to see without the vagaries of seasonal variation.

It actually looks a little better this way, but I caution it is misleading. As you can see, the maximum line over-estimates the true maximum in recent years? Why? Because the REAL trajectory of the maximum rating is -- brace yourself -- quadratic or accelerated. In recent seasons, the true maximum is declining at a faster rate than this line implies.

So, below, I now show the quadratic trends. These are a little misleading too (remember...they are model-based estimates, not actual data), but they tell stories I didn't expect. The model implies that (a) the minimum has bottomed out! We're there! and ( the maximum is trending toward the minimum, at an accelerated rate...but not as fast as I subjectively felt. Small mercies :-)

Linear model-based estimates of minimum and maximum ratings decline:

Linear + quadratic model-based estimates of minimum and maximum ratings decline:

[brimike]

Mark and Sylph, the networks would LOVE to have you two working for them! LOL!

[edgeofnik]

Someone should post a list of the top rated primetime programs during this time period. I bet you'd be shocked by the drop.