Vee

Take 'em for what they are at this point:

Walter has always looked for a reason to believe Trump can win 'on policy'. In any event, I don't buy it.

I'm sure the Times will grudgingly correct the record shortly, but it's still tiresome to see them print this stuff unquestionably over and over the first time.

Thanks! It's made ABC:

It doesn't come up as a gift link for me.

Fresh from spending months ranting about Biden being too old, Astead Herndon has returned to a) whine about Obama 'lecturing' men of color re: their vote, b) get co-signed by Nina Turner, and c) do this:

Out of the bottle:

The Times was pressured to publish:

Politico massages the facts: A deeply bizarre postscript:

That doesn't mean I'm going to take it seriously. It's Gallup!

Gallup by way of Alex Thompson. I'll pass on taking that at face value.

Meanwhile:

This is how I feel. I don't think we'd be human if it wasn't somewhat nervewracking for many of us. They're close numbers materially and the stakes are (once again) higher than they've ever been. But all Republicans have done since '16 is continue to lose elections. I have yet to see evidence that is changing, and we're still up where we need to be in a lot of the polling (which, as you say, has ceased to matter). Still, I do have some anxiety any time we get this close. I'll feel better on the night once I start to have my own suspicions borne out of course, just as they were overnight in 2020 (though it took a few hours) or in 2012.

Thread:

David Plouffe on the race.

Except in 2016 those weren't the polls. We never saw it coming. I do think we'll take GA and PA, and very possibly Michigan too.

I just don't think most voters are seriously caring about the Al Smith dinner or 'supporting the Catholics' in 2024. Grinnin' Brian Stelter may have been typically charmed by Trump's bad jokes, but the public doesn't really register that stuff.

What potential does Sam have left? Serious answers only. Are they now trying to say that Holly ditched Sasha with her mother before '92 and just hung out in town for almost two years without her?

I don't either. It may be tied in the way the polling is being done which understandably makes many of us tense (me included), but I haven't been convinced it'll actually be that close on the night for quite some time. People doing these doomsday scenarios of barely ekeing out a victory with 276 EV or something are deep in their own nightmares to me. I'm tenser than I was in '20 or '22, but a lot of that has to do with the unusual circumstances of this cycle and the heightened threat post-J6. I've suspected for some time this may look something like the midterms on the night of and we may put it away much earlier than anyone in media had expected. I think most of that is natural tightening towards the end of a race, and not that surprising given Harris has only been in the race since the end of July. I also think the polling underreports or overweights a lot of groups on account of the assumption of Trump Magic, and early voting that is not going to happen the same way as in the middle of a pandemic. The rest is PTSD Dems or angry Twitter leftists bedwetting over the One Weird Trick they would do with her campaign instead. Of course I can think of things I would do differently, but I see little serious change in that campaign since two months ago and it's been an insanely rushed timetable.

It's all just so tired.

This is paywalled, so I'll just note the key new factoid is that some source has told them Trump keeps backing out because of 'exhaustion.' Trump PR then of course pushed back on this. Trump also backed out of the Shade Room. Harris is apparently going on the trail with both Obamas next week.