DRW50

What's more worrisome is she seems to be underrunning Biden in a number of areas in Virginia and New Hampshire - she will likely win those states but that doesn't bode well for swing states. I am hoping Sherrod Brown would hold on but that's not looking great right now either.

That's the very early vote - it's not going to stick. If she does somehow win I'll certainly be happy. CNN is also saying she's worried about NC (and GA). They seem to be counting on PA. Not great. I think CNN was saying she needs 700K or more out of Philly to win PA so that makes me nervous.

If she loses NH or VA, which doesn't seem likely, that would mean it's definitely over. The issues are NC and GA. I don't see her winning those.

That seat was going to flip no matter what - Manchin was the only one who held onto it and he likely wouldn't have this year, especially as the popular governor was running for the GOP. Based on the results so far tonight I am worried about how much else Democrats may lose. The best to hope for might be keeping the losses narrow.

Is this Lee Bryant? I am not sure.

Reading on Twitter, apparently a number of Georgia polling places in DeKalb and Fulton are staying open later because of bomb threats. Not sure how much that will affect the vote. Hoax bomb threats linked to Russia target polling places in battleground states, FBI says | Reuters

Ever since exit polls in 2004 led some to believe Kerry had won, I've always been wary of them. I feel like they are used to depress turnout. Between that and the Charlie Kirk set warning of their side needing more turnout, the head fakes are in full force today to try to get anyone voting for Harris or Democrats to not bother. Early results are much more likely to be Republican. Trump will use this to declare victory and a great deal of the media will back him up every step of the way. Another thing to remember is that the GOP have also claimed that Harris will end democracy, so a good portion of those 38% votes may be going their way.

That an oh-so-serious publication like Semafor actually has to point out to us in jeering terms how "questionably funny" Pitchbot is. Speaking of questionably funny, this is one of the better pieces from the leftist shell that is today's Onion.

I couldn't get much rest either. I hope you have a good night.

Sorry if this was already posted. Jon Ralston, a big Nevada forecaster, has, after mentioning the strong Republican turnout for weeks, suggested that Harris will win the state - narrowly. Very narrowly. He was a few points off in other elections so the same may be true here, but we'll hope for the best. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions Joe Rogan endorsed Trump. Probably something that would have had much more of an effect weeks ago and seems to have been heavily manipulated by Elon. Still, in such a tight race anything can make a difference.

He's so two-faced, given that he was calling Harris "trash" tonight. Speaking of trash, some white nationalist got fired from their campaign recently (compared to the many who are still there). https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/white-nationalist-trump-campaign-00187282 Seeing some of them trying to use Tim Alberta to launder their images makes me roll my eyes, but if Trump does lose, I hope this means they will finally move on and stop trying to dredge up the new version of him.

One of the reasons the GOP and their outlets have ramped up the extremist rhetoric is likely to further numb the average citizen into accepting or encouraging violence. Comparisons to Nazi Germany are overdone but I do think we are heading that way in terms of public response to slaughter. I think Elon is power-mad and his anxieties over aging and one of his children transitioning made him the perfect target for the bro brainwashing. And he was apparently always a shitty person, whether or not he used to support candidates who weren't shitty. I stay on Twitter because there is still TV and movie discussion I won't get elsewhere, and some of the political talk still draws me in, but I don't know if I can without drastic changes.

Thank you @TheyStartedOnSoaps Always a delightful surprise to get "new" material from this period. I am so enthralled with Rita Lloyd's work as Lucille.

A pro-Trump influencer says a Russian agent paid him $100 to post a fake voter fraud video. It wasn’t the first time | CNN Politics

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/11/04/election-deniers-were-aimless-now-with-musks-help-theyre-an-army/

The fight for the Latino vote in one Pennsylvania county. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/latinos-decide-election-pennsylvania-00186534 The article is better than the propagandistic title.

There are few of us who pay attention to most of this to begin with, but the biggest difference is a lot of the ugly moments that get coverage end up being tied to simpler talking points for voters - the dogs and cats stuff about immigration, this nonsense about squirrels as government overreach in blue states, the FCC complaint about the media being against him, etc. One of the reasons the Puerto Rico stuff may have hurt Trump is because it wasn't tied to any of those themes a lot of voters seem to (if polls are any indication) be focused on this year. I think we see that Trump, but when people are dressing up in garbage bags at his behest, I am never sure if we are in the minority. I guess we'll know in a few days.

Apparently, Trump got some free advertising on NBC due to one of his FCC picks pitching a fit over the SNL cameo being so close to the election. Just another reason I wish her campaign had had second thoughts as even a puff piece ended up with churn to "prove" the system is against him. I can't remember if it was @Vee who posted this a while back or if I am mixing it up with another article, but even with Tim Alberta being GOP-sympathetic, it did give me insight into the two worlds of the Trump campaign and how his campaign managers have been forced into the old "let Trump be Trump" mentality at his events even as they stick to a more traditional campaign elsewhere. (they also try to blame a lot of the ugliness like cats and dogs and MSG on one staffer, which seems convenient) https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/ The news cycle is dominated with distractions about squirrels, raccoons, dogs, cats, garbage, drowning out positive stories from Harris, while his ads that are constantly on stick to much narrower topics - immigration, economy, and insisting Harris is the same as Biden. The same stuff Wasserman (who gave the game away on his views back in 2022) wants him to do at rallies. There's also a large amount of transphobia in the ads, of course. I don't know if the latter moves voters, but the rest is what has kept the election close, and I don't think it's gone away. The visibly decayed Trump of his rallies isn't the man half or more of the country see. They make him their own, whatever they need him to be. It takes so much to change that, and I am not sure this is the year or candidate who will make that happen, if any candidate even could.

I would have liked that. Bringing Tom back when John Bolger was there could have worked, as it's not like he worked long with Grant anyway.

This would have been a year or so after Michael was let go from AMC due to his issues so I think P&G would have been wary. I appreciated the Ross/Philip relationship, but I never thought it was strong enough to where the full absence of Justin for all those years was warranted. I think there was still story for him, and I might have brought Jackie back from the dead - maybe she had to fake her death because of some criminal activity she witnessed, or something along those lines. She might have started a new family while she was in hiding.

It's a shame there is so much baggage with Melissa Reeves as even with all of that and even with knowing how many years she phoned in her work, it still feels right to me seeing her back as Jennifer. Nice to see Marie back too. I'm glad they saw that as a moment to include in the promo. Who shot EJ? More like can they send some Alex's way next...

Thanks. I was mostly just going on that poll and some of the other polls/early voting stuff but hopefully she can get the Blue Wall.

Thanks. It's hard for me to imagine her struggling in the Blue Wall and taking Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, but we'll see. Is that the same polling where the race was tied nationally or is this a later version?

You're right about the poll being a barometer, it's just difficult to know how much of a barometer it is this year when few polls have shown the same result for her in the Midwest in places that have gone Democratic more recently than Iowa has. I see that Morning Consult put out a bunch of polls tonight that have Trump winning all the swing states (they didn't poll Nevada) but PA (tied), AZ (tied), Michigan (Harris +1). They had been more on Harris' side earlier, IIRC, rather than being known as a GOP poll. So it's another reason the Iowa result is a big question mark for me. I do see what you are saying about Selzer, and I want to believe it's true.

There's also a political cameo in this sketch. The sketch is...decent, I suppose. It works better if you've never seen the earlier versions, especially the one in 2019.