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A Twitter of one of the reporters covering the MT special election. Among other tidbits - higher turnout than expected (not a surprise), Gianforte's thuggery hasn't changed any votes at a polling place (not a surprise - actually I thought it might get him more votes...I still think it might), and his thuggery has gotten him a spike in donations (not a surprise).

 

https://twitter.com/annehelen

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I doubt it's going to have an impact one way vs another. 65-70% of Montana voters already voted before today. And I expect Gianforte to win but like with Thompson in Kansas by a slimmer margin than expected.

Edited by JaneAusten
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So they've pretty much said it's over then? I read a day or so ago that they thought the Democrat might do alright in absentees but not on same-day voting. But it does seem likely the Republican will win, Of course it shouldn't even be close, but election after election of "it should't be close" is going to demoralize people.

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No one is saying it's over I am just basing my opinion on what I've seen. If the energy out there is contingent on this one race(Because it is only 1) then people were never into it to begin with. And none of these races being fought (Thompson, Quist, Ossoff) were ever considered swing districts. Thompson in fact got very little support including media support until the couple of days prior to his election and closed the gap from November by 21 points. Democrats are having successes in the areas now where you can get a quicker turnaround at the state and local levels. I live in Illinois and am thrilled with how well the party did here in April in local races in traditionally red areas. No one is relying on the party either because that is a recipe right now for failure.

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I think the estimates are that he lost by 5 points = we'll see. But if anything less than 10 it spells trouble for GOP IMO.

 

I think the message IMO is we need to go back to going for a coalition of voters. If anything this proved is that these WWC people right now will support the authoritarian types.

 

I always felt Quist was a longshot for a number of reasons(ie his own baggage) and some of these districts just aren't ready yet. there are over 300 districts right now more competitive than this one.

 

Someone should have looked at the profile for Tester and Bullock their dem Governor who beat Gianforte to see the democratic profile that might have won. But Quist did win the primary. I just don't think the Bernie socialist message resonates with WWC voters there. I did phone-banking for Quist the last 2 weekend and I talked to several people who could care less about free college or min wage. And these were democrats we called.

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