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13 minutes ago, cassistan said:

It would have nice to see Michelle Pfeiffer get an Oscar nod.

 

Same with Sophia Loren, but the 5 who did are all well deserved.

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Nomadland takes the lead in the Best Picture race by winning the Producers Guild award. 

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11 minutes ago, Toups said:

Nomadland takes the lead in the Best Picture race by winning the Producers Guild award. 

I’m glad we at least have an open Best Supporting Actress race. The year Tilda Swinton won was probably the last time it was this up in the air.

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15 minutes ago, Faulkner said:

I’m glad we at least have an open Best Supporting Actress race. The year Tilda Swinton won was probably the last time it was this up in the air.

 

I'm not sure about Best Actor and Supporting Actor too.  I think Best Actress is the only one that's a sure shot right now.   We'll see what happens at the SAGs. 

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1 minute ago, Toups said:

 

I'm not sure about Best Actor and Supporting Actor too.  I think Best Actress is the only one that's a sure shot right now.   We'll see what happens at the SAGs. 

I think Chadwick has Best Actor in the bag. Too much sentimental value in a win, and his widow’s speeches have been so moving.
 

I do think Daniel has momentum in S. Actor.

 

You could make an argument for any of the five women in S. Actress. Very unusual.

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On 3/24/2021 at 10:43 PM, Toups said:

 

I'm not sure about Best Actor and Supporting Actor too.  I think Best Actress is the only one that's a sure shot right now.   We'll see what happens at the SAGs. 

 

Toups, are you thinking Mullligan as the surest? She's definitely my pick and well-deserved, but several sites are suggesting Day and even Davis as possibilities. I think McDormand could eke it out as well, if her latest win (3Billboards) weren't so recent. 

 

I think Actor is the sure shot. (Although Hopkins is phenomenal)

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Posted (edited)

SAG Film winners were

 

Ensemble: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Actress: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah 

Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

 

Davis throws a loop in Best Actress. The other categories feel locked. I can imagine people being up in arms with the very white and male “Trial of the Chicago 7” winning Best Picture if indeed the acting winners are all POC.

Edited by Faulkner
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On 3/29/2021 at 6:58 AM, cct said:

 

Toups, are you thinking Mullligan as the surest? She's definitely my pick and well-deserved, but several sites are suggesting Day and even Davis as possibilities. I think McDormand could eke it out as well, if her latest win (3Billboards) weren't so recent. 

 

I think Actor is the sure shot. (Although Hopkins is phenomenal)

 

I thought Frances McDormand was the sure shot in Best Actress but Viola just won the SAG.  After the SAGs, I think Chadwick and Daniel Kaluuya are the only sure shots now.   Best Actress and Supporting Actress are up in the air. 

 

 

So it looks like Best Picture will be between Nomadland and Trial of the Chicago 7, at least they're in the lead right now. 

 

 

31 minutes ago, Faulkner said:

I can imagine people being up in arms with the very white and male “Trial of the Chicago 7” winning Best Picture if indeed the acting winners are all POC.

 

Meh.  People complain about everything.   The Trial of Chicago 7 has an AMAZING cast. 

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56 minutes ago, Toups said:

I thought Frances McDormand was the sure shot in Best Actress but Viola just won the SAG. 

I don’t think they are ready to give Frances her third Best Actress. It would have to be an undeniable, generational performance like DDL in “Lincoln.” I thought Carey, Viola, and Andra Day were all ahead of her.

 

I think Youn is now the Supporting Actress frontrunner. She has a good narrative; she’s a South Korean actress in this monumental “Stop Asian Hate” year, which is a year after they gave “Parasite” Best Picture yet nominated none of that film’s great cast. And it’s a good place to represent “Minari,” which is unlikely to win much else yet had enough support for a Best Picture nomination.


Which... oof, Glenn. She’d be the new Susan Lucci in terms of acting Oscar nominations without a win. 

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7 hours ago, Toups said:

 

I thought Frances McDormand was the sure shot in Best Actress but Viola just won the SAG.  After the SAGs, I think Chadwick and Daniel Kaluuya are the only sure shots now.   Best Actress and Supporting Actress are up in the air. 

 

 

So it looks like Best Picture will be between Nomadland and Trial of the Chicago 7, at least they're in the lead right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

It wouldn't surprise me, actually, if went to Trial, even though the pundits are all saying Nomadland has the lead. Nomadland has two issues:

 

1. The actors are mostly non-actors. When the actor's branch of the academy is the largest branch, I don't know how well this will play.

2. The movie is more poetry than narrative. Again, that might get you a nomination, but not necessarily the win.

 

We are no longer in the plurality ballot, and haven't been for some time. It's a preferential ballot. That means something that earns a lot of #2s and #3s could easily win. Trial seems like it could be a safe #2 or #3 for a lot of people, who enjoyed PYW or another film more passionately. If Trial wins, it will be more like a Spotlight kind of year. 

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