Cancellation Predictions You Got Right and Those You Got Wrong

[Max]

Here is an opportunity for everyone to be honest with themselves and all others by stating which soap cancellation predictions you got right and which you got wrong. In my own case, my incorrect predictions outnumbered my correct ones.

Correct Cancellation Predictions:

*AW--Even though AW had a million more viewers than SuBe did back in 1999 (and led SuBe in the women 18-49 demos as well), I always had a sinking feeling that it would be the one axed to make room for Passions. One reason for feeling this way was that AW was (at the time) the only NBC soap filmed in NYC. Another reason why AW's demise seemed more likely is that it--being a traditional soap--just didn't "fit" in with the branding that NBC Daytime was going for (whereas the campiness of SuBe seemed a much better fit). However, by far the major reason why I believed that AW would be axed over SuBe was because AW possessed the golden, post-DOOL timeslot that NBC so badly wanted Passions to have. (And it just did not make that much sense to cancel SuBe, place Passions in AW's timeslot, and move AW to SuBe's erratic timeslots.)

*DOOL--Cancellation rumors have been a dime a dozen for this soap for decades. Because of this, I have grown accustomed to dismissing them (sort of like the tale of the boy who cried wolf). Thus, when just about everybody else thought NBC would cancel DOOL last year, I predicted it was safe. (Although I was surprised that it got such an outrageously generous renewal deal.) Seriously, DOOL is the one soap that you cannot kill off with a stick.

*OLTL--A lot of people here were in denial that OLTL would be cancelled this year (because of its higher ratings and demos over AMC). However, to me it came as no surprise, since ABC really left this soap for dead the moment they chose to move AMC to LA and upgrade it to HD (while leaving OLTL in NYC and opting to not upgrade the soap to HD). However, I should say that I always expected OLTL to go before (the much more well-known and historically important) ATWT, so I was very wrong on that front.

Incorrect Cancellation Predictions:

*SuBe: While SuBe's cancellation was a given due to its horrendous ratings, I never predicted it would be gone just six months after AW. I honestly believed NBC was being truthful when they suggested that only one soap would have to be cancelled to make room for Passions. Furthermore, I believed the spin in the NBC press release issued regarding AW's cancellation: the network stated (almost verbatim) that NBC executives believed that SuBe had more momentum than AW, so they went with it; after such a statement, it was logical to conclude that NBC would give SuBe a lot more than six more months. (I should note that the backlash NBC received over the way it handled the AW and SuBe cancellations was one reason I believe ABC chose to cancel both AMC and OLTL at once.)

*Passions: I was wrong about Passions' cancellation twice. Initially, I expected that the soap would be gone within two or three years, because of its horrendous ratings (and poor performance in the women 18-49 demos); however, this never happened because (1) NBC executives were in bed with JER and (2) the network was pleased with Passions' ratings among females ages 12-34. Thus, after Passions was on the air for about four years, I then held the exact opposite prediction: that the soap would be on for at least a generation. Part of this prediction was based on my pessimism (given that I despise this show) and another part was based on believing the NBC spin that they were completely thrilled with Passions' demos performance (and did not care about its overall ratings). Of course, Passions was cancelled, because JER lost favor with the network (largely as a result of his failed second run at DOOL) and of the fact that NBC really expected a lot more of this soap (than for it to just remain in the ratings cellar).

*GL--I predicted that GL would be cancelled back in 2004 (when it was just barely ahead of Passions in the household ratings). Never in my wildest dreams did I expect it would last until 2009 (and outlast Passions). And, while it would have been very humilating for GL to have gone before Passions, I honestly wish it was cancelled in 2004 or 05 (in spite of the fact that I love P&G soaps), since we know how horrendous this show later became.

*ATWT--While nearly everybody else said that ATWT had only one year left to live after GL, I never believed it. For one thing, I really thought that P&G would have given a damn about its crown jewel. (I even thought CBS would be reluctant to pull the plug on a show that was #1 for twenty years.) And despite the fact that ATWT was last place in the ratings, it was considerably ahead of where GL was (and was not that far behind the #3 soap). Furthermore, an ATWT cancellation (in 2010) seemed unthinkable to me because this show (1) is so iconic and well-known (and arguably the most important soap ever) and (2) did not teeter on the edge of cancellation for over a decade the way AW and GL did.

*AMC--When the rumors first came out about AMC's cancellation, I refused to believe them (while everybody else here did). Again, much of the reason why I was in denial mirrored the reasons I was in denial over ATWT's cancellation: AMC, I believed, would not be cancelled because it was an iconic soap that became an American institution, and because it was a huge ratings hit until about four years ago. Furthermore, cancelling AMC so soon after the move to LA would not happen simply because it would make the ABC executives look like utter idiots, given that these individuals flushed tons of money down the toilet.

[DRW50]

At the time of AW going, it was conventional wisdom that Sunset Beach would be going soon. The only salvation would have been some huge ratings surge, which wasn't going to happen.

I'm thrilled GL wasn't canceled in 2004. For me the show's most heinous damage had already happened by then (the Michael Zaslow fiasco and the "Ben is a serial killer because he'd been molested" stories are unforgiveable for me) and I wouldn't want the show to have ended on Tom Pelphrey screaming all his lines. GL 2009 managed to right a few wrongs, and go out on a decent note.

As for defying expectations...honestly? I was shocked the show made it past 1996. I don't know if you were watching in 1996 but that was the year from hell, and ratings sank into the floor.

[Max]

As always, thank you so much Carl for sharing your insightful thoughts. Actually, I did not start watching soaps until 1998, when I became hooked on the soon-to-be-cancelled AW. (In my opinion, a cancellation of a show that one has watched only briefly is just as painful as a cancellation of a show that one has watched for decades.) Of course, I later did a lot of research of AW after its cancellation (which made me adore the show even more).

There is no doubt about the fact that 1996 was a terrible year for all of the P&G soaps. And while GL's ratings had tumbled from where it was in the early-90's, I would have been shocked if it was cancelled in 1996 (had I followed the genre back then). The reason for this is because I don't believe that P&G would have allowed for it, given that GL had well over a million more viewers than AW did at that time. (Even when one takes into account that an acceptable soap rating at CBS is much higher than at NBC, I still would have been surprised if GL went before AW.)

[rcsnj]

Actually, Max, there were strong rumors of an impending cancellation for Guiding Light in 1995. E! interviewed Kim Zimmer at that time as she was reprising the role of Reva and touched upon the possible cancellation. Guiding Light worsened greatly in 1996. The word "dull" describes Guiding Light in 1996.

[DRW50]

Rumors first hit in early 1995, around the time right before the Fifth Street Fire.

Megan McTavish brought the ratings up enough in late 1995 but by mid-1996 they were falling again. The show was rotgut, with the Hart/Dinah drugging Roger story, and accidentally giving him electroshock therapy, one of the most disgusting and misplaced stories ever on GL (along with the Gilly/Griffin incest mess). Rumors swirled about B&B moving to an hour. Something stopped that. If it hadn't, I think GL would have been gone.

[ZoeTate]

Dark Shadows cancellation depressed me terribly. I had a feeling when House of Dark Shadows was big that the daytime show would be off the air in a year and it was. Jonathan Frid had been tired and dropping hints that he was sick of Barnabas.

Another World was toast once I heard Reilly was promised his own soap. NBC only wanted two soaps. I loved the first year and a half of Passions - I think Reilly really set it up beautifully but THEN it went along at an irritating pace. Don't even get me started on the Ethan/Gwen engagment party that went on for six weeks.

[beebs]

With 1996 on GL, if you look at the ratings that summer, things got so bad at one point that AW actually beat them one week, and tied with them a couple of others. Judging by how unbelievably drab the stories were that summer (wasn't Annie's undoing at trial in '97? That was worth suffering through '96 for...almost), it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that there were cancellation rumours swirling at GL. I always felt that AW's cancellation was unnecessary, but considering the fact AW was sinking like a stone at this point and SUN was just staying flat, it isn't totally shocking.

The only cancellation that really shocked me was GL. I think I'd been out of the soap bubble for so long, that when my roommate told me GL was gone, it was a bit of a wake-up call. I knew the ratings were terrible and I knew nothing short of a miracle would save it, but I always saw the Peapack move as sort of a prelude to moving the show online. Which, of course, never happened. I had too much faith in P&G's dedication to their soaps, I suppose. ATWT was equally surprising, considering how recently they'd been the big buzz soap thanks to Nuke etc., I figured P&G would've kept pushing along with it. Oh how quickly one grows cynical, though.

[rcsnj]

Yes, Annie's undoing was in June 1997. 1996 did have a few good moments but the show seemed to fall apart after the Brent/Marian storyline ended.

[ClassicSoapsFan]

I predict that GH will be canceled at the end of 2012 if the following happens:

-Frons is not fired.

-The Chew does well (I have a bad feeling it will do well because there is an ad for the show on this forum as I am typing this.)

-OLTL's replacement does well (which I doubt because the same concept was used for Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition and failed.)

-ABC wants to crap on soaps by getting rid of the most popular soap on the lineup. *dies inside*

[Mitch]

The Brent/Marion story did give the show a shot in the arm, but it was at the expense of the rest of the show, as it covered up all the flaws. We had returns of big iconic 80's characters (Reva, Nola, Amanda) which were mishandled, the canvas remained splintered (the show was still reeling from the lost of the tentpole Maureen and JFP making the show the Buzz Cooper hour) and the writing was ridiculous for the vets (Holly all of a sudden HATED Roger after she had made a semi peace with him before, Roger was a mustach twirling villian, Alex was a shreking shrew, Ed had absolutely nothing to do,Josh hated Reva despite the fact she had amnesia, Nola was a dour bore, Bridget was a grasping woman who considered plastic surgery, and Dinah was of course a heroine all of a sudden. )

But Brent/Marion infused the show with energy and was the umbrella story that was needed as it involved all the cast somehow. Scary that it took a cross dressing psycho to make SF a community again, and it all fell apart after he was vanquished.

[casandranow]

I can still feel the rage flowing through me with the way AW's cancellation was handled. They gave them what, a month, to wrap up everything, maybe a bit more? I think it was announced in mid April, and they finished taping mid May, so yeah, a month to tie up everything. They knew Passions was set to go, they premiered it like a week after AW's last day. Why not, at the very least, give the AW execs some more time to do things properly. Because I HATED the damn gorilla wedding. I know it tied in with Cass and Felicia's history, but ugh. I suppose AW should have seen the writing on the wall when they got dropped by one of the California affiliates in late 98, but still.

Passions surprised me continuously that it lasted as long as it did. It was truly awful. There was no legacy family, no core. Nothing but over the top stunts and supernatural oddities. They didn't use any of the classic soap formula, which I think is part of the reason it struggled to find an audience aside from teenagers.

As for Guiding Light, I actually started watching it in mid April of 09, AFTER the cancellation had been announced. What kind of idiot am I? lol

[jcar03]

The show could get less than half of AMC rating and be considered a success by ABC since it is cheaper to produce. I am not sure that the ad of this forum relates to it being a success though. Plenty of cancelled shows and movies that have bombed have had ads on here and spent a pretty penny on advertising.

[KMan101]

I dislike the entire group of hosts on The Chew, to be honest. I'm not being a disgruntled soap fan, either. They keep pimping Michael Symon and something about him just bugs the crap out of me. Everytime I turn on ABC they have a promo for the show, they even have the View ladies pushing the show as well as GMA. I've seen Symon on there at least twice. Hall was on the View and it just all comes across as tacky.

[EricMontreal22]

While I agree with your reasons why AW went before SuBe, Max, I think opne reason you left off too is it had been struggling for an awful long time--NBC probably felt like they had done all they could with it (not something I agree with, but...)

[juppiter]

With AW, I was shocked. I absolutely thought it would be SB getting the ax because SB's ratings were in the 1.0s and in 1999 those are awful awful ratings, plus AW had been around so long it just seemed bizarre.

With PC, I was surprised it did not come earlier. PC never knew what it was and certainly outlived its welcome.

With Passions, I was actually surprised to see it go. I never watched much of Passions but from what I saw the Blackmailer was the best storyline they had ever done. I love all the lines they crossed with that.

With GL, it was just time, they had been on the chopping block for 15 years and the show had just become unrecognizable. I wasn't too surprised.

With ATWT, I'm gonna echo what someone said above, it did not teeter on the brink of extinction for 15 years like GL and AW did, so it was pretty surprising to me. I knew the numbers were bad and the show was probably not making much money for the network, but I was honestly expecting a one-year renewal and cancellation in 2011 instead of 2010. So I guess the cancellation itself didn't surprise me as much as the timing of it.

Oh, and yeah, DAYS getting renewed was shocking to me. Didn't NBC even say at one point it was "unlikely to continue past 2009"? So that it's still here it's amazing. But with all this publicity about the September relaunch I do think they're on their last chance now.