January 4-8, 2010

[MarkH]

Well, I agree with the findings not the conclusions.

Alden/Smith had straight linear decline. But a lot of that was industry wide (viewers abandoning broadcast and the daypart)...so they were really just riding a trend. If we want to lay failure at their feet, it is that they were unable to buck the overall trend.

We see in LML the opposite. During the early part of her regime, with the legacy team, she DID buck the trend. Unfortunately, her long-term contribution is negated by the downturn after the legacy team left. She could not sustain.

MAB leaves a far more ambivalent legacy. The initial plummet during her early regime is the WORST WEEKLY DESCENT in the history of Y&R. Was that her fault or -- coming so early in her regime -- inherited dissent from the LML era?

There is no question that MAB was able to claw back to where she started (like LML, she gets credit for bucking the trend...probably credit also goes to HS-SH, her palindrome team at that point). But, like LML, she has also been unable to hold on to what she achieved...so she went right back down to all-time lows...and now she's trending up again. The W-shape of her ratings lends a lot of credence, IMO, to Angela's "seasonal" hypothesis (i.e., summer kicks the sh!t out of her ratings).

[Sylph]

So if we make a forecast, when will Y&R hit a 2.9 at this point?

Just extrapolate into the future.

[MarkH]

A simply linear extrapolation (the steady downward decline model) explains 92% of the HH rating. So, we could do better, but I'm just using this simple model to predict the 2.9.

Based on that model, and using the weeklies from 1999 and beyond (shown above), the 2.9 will be reached in Week 17 of 2011...that is the fourth week in April, 2011.

Now, with these seasonal variations these last few years, there could be a lot of flex around that date. But the best crude guess is that we'll see a 2.9 HH for the week (April 25-29, 2011). Watch this be way off,

[Saving ATWT]

Love your breakdown of my convo with Carl. I should preface by saying that my suggestions regarding ATWT pertain to the shows final months on CBS if and only if PGP hopes to find a new home. Any 54 season 'wrap up' would take months thus effectivly ending any non-nostalga storylines. ATWT needs mini 'cliffhangers' useful in bringing viewers along with a switch to a new network if a new network can be found.

I agree with you in that PGP wants out. I am suprised that they did not sell out to CBS or another company years ago. I am curious as to whether there have been buyout offers that PGP considered too small. I have taken into account the rationale of corporate heads when making the above suggestions because, if there is any hope of the show being picked up, it would be with a far slimmer budget and less vets. Any new company would be aiming for stronger demos and the elimination of vets would free up money for the addition of new talent. (I love most of the vets but have tried to look at this, not as a screaming fan, but from a business perspective.)

Also, I do get the notion of clearing a failing shows canvas and trying new things. My mother and grandmother, both well over the 18-49 demo, seem more interested in Katie and Emily than they are Bob and Kim. I think vets add texture, sure, but in most cases fail to drive story. An exception can be found in those over-the-top, Queen Bee types, such as Y&R's Kay and World Turns' (under-used) Lucinda.

In the end, PGP has no interest in the show. The odd thing is that they seem determined to hold onto rights/content. I am curious if any network would buy this show at a bargin basement price. I also want to see if rating continue to climb over the next 8 months. It would be so strange to see CBS end a show ranked 4th or even 5th place. I say 4th as being possible because AMC is due for a tumble.

[Saving ATWT]

I thought Latham killed the show; wow, she brought ratings way up--why was she let go? For all the hype, she was far better for numbers than MA Bell and crew.

Also, do you think the drop for Y&R harmed World Turns in ratings. This week, ATWT ratings seems so disconnected from Y&R. I'm guessing ATWT would have ended years ago if not for the strong lead ins.

[MarkH]

It was alleged that LML was fired for bad management (e.g., she twice had to shut production down because she ran out of scripts) plus her failure to honor her EP duties during the WGA strike (allowing force majeur to be played when she'd stayed out long enough)...not the ratings.

Oh yes, there is a strong association between the declines of ATWT and Y&R.

Since 1973, the two shows have been correlated r=.615 (which is a pretty modest correlation...during that period ATWT from getting twice as many households as Y&R [in the 1970s] to less than half as many [in the present].

But focusing just on the last decade, the correlation has been an adjusted (for low number of years) r=.821 (raw correlation is r=.919). So, yes, as the fate of Y&R, so goes the fate of ATWT.

The basic formula is this: ATWT rating = .362 + .438*(YR's household rating). So, MOST of ATWT's rating can be predicted from Y&R.

[Jess]

That is really an interesting chart. It looks like the ratings were stable from about mid-2004 until 2007.

[typoprone]

This stats talk is turning me on. Marry me. lol.

[Saving ATWT]

I've never been a huge Y&R fan; however, the show was pretty good under LML. From what I can tell, most people on this board do not agree. LML seems to be hated in soapland but I've always felt she would have been a great fit for ATWT. The show has needed a reboot for years and, given her past work, Latham seems just the person to have done it. I've noticed the connection between Y&R and ATWT ratings but the tie with B&B is even greater. For the 2007-08 year, ATWT ranked 2.4 in HH which is about what B&B scores today. I don't think World Turns hold onto its lead very well but just imagine if World Turns still held the old 1:30 timeslot: it would probably be number two show on daytime. Something tells me that when Les Moonves talks about 'special shows,' he is not talking about B&B.

BTW, thanks for the stat breakdown.

[Mitch]

Well we have had this discussions on other topics here, but...when I was in high school and college, my fave characters were Bert and H.B. on GL. Both had major story at the time (Bert's unfortunatley was the amputation story, which in real life would take Charita Bauer's life) and H.B. was a horny old son of a bitch who married hot 30 something Reva.) AND GL hit number one that summer (course it was not all old folks all the time, there were teens, and 20's and middle aged people too,uh, wait, maybe a show can write for everyone and hit number one...) That was over 20 years ago, but I think the same can hold true now. You write for a multigenerational canvas and everyone wants to watch.

I also think the vets can get airtime but they dont have to have major storyline. They need to be there as support as the "I did that so you better as hell listen to me you stupid slut," kind of thing ( I have no idea why Lisa is not more involved with her love child Carly..) Kreizman, or somebody kinda gets this with the token appearances of Nancy and her friendship with Katie...which not only makes me feel like I just got a home made bowl of chicken soup (and might just buy a P G product) but adds dimension to the show and to the character of Katie.

I dont want to watch a show that is all about love affairs, breaking up and making up...thats what ATWT and GL WERE about their last five years and it killed them. I need to see the context of those affairs and their importance to their families and their communities. Reva and Josh during Long were just as much about their families as it was about them...ditto Holden and Lily etc. Right now I dont really care about Carly and the cop as they just seem to be immature middle aged people who refuse to grow up, as we dont see them in any other context then "making up and breaking up."