Predict the Order in Which the Soaps Will Be Cancelled

[Max]

When it comes to the topic that I just raised, we obviously need to start by predicting which soap will be cancelled first. And, usless somebody has the IQ of a fruitfly, it is apparent that the only two soaps in immediate danger of cancellation are ATWT and OLTL.

I personally think that OLTL will go first, for a variety of reasons (despite the fact that OLTL does better in the ratings and demos): First of all, after Frons re-located AMC to California, but didn't do the same for OLTL, it became painfully obvious that OLTL's cancellation is imminent (meaning that it will go either in 2010 or 2011). Second, even after GL's cancellation, CBS is still a more soap-friendly network than ABC. Third is the fact that P&G seems to like to "space out" the cancellations of its soaps (witness the gaps inbetween the cancellations of SFT, AW, and GL), and therefore may make it really difficult for CBS to cancel ATWT. And last, but not least, is the fact that ATWT has far more name recognition than OLTL. (Honestly, the only factor that seems to be going in OLTL's favor is that fact that its cancellation would create a "gap" in between AMC and GH; to avoid this, I'm assuming that AMC will move to OLTL's old timeslot, even though such a move could be devastating to its ratings.)

If I had to guess, ATWT will be cancelled in 2012 or 2013. At this point in time, it becomes much tougher to predict the order of cancellation, although I will attempt to do so below:

3. AMC: This soap probably will be next in line, simply because it neither gets the ratings attained by Y&R & B&B, nor has the "buzz" (and the huge soap media bias in favor) of GH & DOOL. Additionally, I predict that the move to L.A. won't save nearly the amount of money that Frons expects it to. (Of course, if this world was completely fair, AMC would actually be cancelled before OLTL, given that the latter soap appears by all objective measures to be more profitable. Unfortunately, Frons and other industry "experts" are under the impression that AMC is some sort of national treasure worth saving while OLTL is disposable.)

4. B&B: This may surprise some of you, since B&B is still the second most watched soap. However, the fans of GH and DOOL are absoulte fanatics while the same cannot be said about B&B fans in this country (although internationally, B&B does attract a lot of fanatical supporters). And of course, the soap media won't do much to save B&B (while they will move heaven and earth to save DOOL and GH). Furthermore, given how much B&B's ratings have eroded over the past couple of years, it really wouldn't surprise me if it fell behind DOOL and GH in viewership five years from now. (B&B sure doesn't do itself any favors in this department by continuing on ad nauseum with Brooke, Ridge, and their problems with Stephanie; this is the same damn story they've been telling from the beginning, and the show's sole focus on it makes it impossible for the soap to grow creatively.)

By this juncture, the two soaps in imminent danger of cancellation (DOOL & GH) will nonetheless still be extremely difficult to get rid of. As I've indicated earlier, fans of these shows are absolute fanatics that will not let their shows go quietly. And, the soap magazines will do everything they can to save both shows because WITHOUT BOTH DOOL AND GH, THOSE RAGS WILL IMMEDIATLEY GO OUT OF BUSINESS. (As a side note, it's really sickening that--by contrast--the soap media didn't/doesn't give a rat's ass about the cancellations of EON, SFT, AW, GL, OLTL, & ATWT.) However, one of these two shows will go next, and I precict it will be:

5. DOOL: I think that this soap will go before GH simply because of the NBC/ABC factor (regarding how each of those networks has historically looked at the soap genre).

Then, of course, the next to be cancelled will be:

6. GH: However, I predict that it will be about ten years--at the very least--before both GH and DOOL are finally gone.

Finally, the last soap to be cancelled will be:

7. Y&R: This one's a no-brainer. Although I am not certain as to when Y&R will meet its demise, I predict that it still will be around to celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2023.

[Jonathan]

Such a morbid topic. How can we get all these shows to survive?

[DRW50]

All I know is that if they ever take The Second Hundred Years or Valiant Lady off, I won't be responsible for my actions.

[Southofnowhere]

ATWT

(2010)

OLTL

AMC

(2011)

DOOL

GH

2013)

Y&R

B&B (2014)

Yes i think due to it's worldwide appeal and because it's way cheaper to make i think B&B will out live Y&R and be the last soap standing.

[jcar03]

Why do we have to be Debbie Downers? Plus, I think we restart this thread every other month or so.

[sactownfan]

Yeah, what is the point of this topic? To me, it's the equivalent of a group of people who stop at a car accident, and take bets on if the injured person will live or die? Does that make you a soap fan? Not in my book. A "true" soap fan would be fighting for survival. The worst thing about the advent of the internet, in regards to soaps, are all these backseat quarterbacks. They ALWAYS know what would be better, and obviously get their jollies by complaining. I am in no way saying soaps are perfect, but I love the genre, and can find as many things to get excited about as to bitch about.

Unfortunately, the web boards seem to attract mostly the negative. A good friend's mom, who lives in Oklahoma, who is a 30 year fan of soaps, told me she got shouted off a variety of message boards because she said she LIKED things. She said she was called stupid, ignorant, and much worse. She stopped posting.

I used to read SON a lot... but I have unfortunately had the same experience as my friend's mom. On one site, there were hundreds of posts ridiculing a soap for it's awful work... but it turned out, NONE of the naysayers had actually watched the show. All the bitchy comments were based on one posters one line summaries. I wrote a post, saying I disagreed. That if you actually haven't watched the show... maybe you shouldn't be criticizing it. MAN! Within an hour, I had sixty angry comments. Some likened me to Hitler. Others expressed their extreme "hurt" at anyone saying bad things about them.

Whaaaaaat? Posters, claiming to be long-time soap fans, who DON'T watch the shows and BADMOUTH everything... were horrified that I had called them out for criticizing the show without watching...

Just bizarre to me. Yeah, every soap could be improved. But this odd subculture that people get to criticize EVERY SINGLE THING.. whether they've watched or not? And yet, if you turn the tables, they runaway and cry like 3 year olds...?

So no. I won't respond to this topic. But I do have a question... what are all the negative bitches who thrive on predicting failure for soaps going to criticize once all their soaps are gone?

[Max]

Sactownfan, that was an extremely rude and personal attack that was completely uncalled for. If this topic bothers you, then fine; don't respond to it. But, like it or not, this is a topic that some may actually believe is worthy of discussion. And, these cancellations are going to happen sooner rather than later, so to not talk about it is to ignore reality (no matter how depressing and upsetting some may find this topic to be).

To tell you the truth, I really don't mind if all of the remaining soaps are cancelled tomorrow, since they have become completely unwatchable pieces of crap. However, unlike your accusation, I do love the soap genre; however, I only love traditional daytime drama--with quality actors and plots--which sadly no longer exists.

Jonathan brought up the point as to how we can get these soaps to survive. Unfortunately, the only way to do that is to completely return to the quality storytelling of decades past. Because TPTB refuse to do this, I'm afraid that cancellation is all but inevitable.

[sactownfan]

Max,

Thanks for your response. It only served to illustrate my point. People who BITCH about soaps on boards can say anything... but if you CHALLENGE them at any point.. they cry foul, immediately.

My post was rude? How? Did I call him fat? Obnoxious? Stupid? Or any other word that posters will HAPPILY call actors and staff of any soap?

What was "personal" about my "attack?" I didn't say anything about the poster "personally." I just DISAGREED. Yes, soaps are worthy of discussion. But the same goes for those on the boards. You can't say "something sucks" without expecting an opposite response.

And again, my goal isn't to offend anyone. If you can tell me what I said that was "rude"... I'd be happy to hear it. Honestly. I'm just hear because I love soaps.

[Max]

Sactownfan,

I perhaps went too far in saying that you were rude; I just got upset when you suggested (or at least that's the way I interpreted it) that I did not love the soap genre. I do love it, but in a different way (as I explained above) than most others probably do. My honest belief is that if there appears to be no realistic chance that soaps will return to how they once were, then it is the best interest of each soap to go off the air (before further damage is done).

Your point regarding the fact that soap message boards are highly negative in tone is a valid one. Even though I myself am culpable here (since my posts are mostly negative), I sometimes get sick of the negativity as well. (Specifically, I get tired of all the posts which trash the EPs and HWs, simply because I believe that such people really no longer have all that much power but are instead told by executives what to do.)

I sincerely apologize for upsetting you tonight.

[Jonathan]

Do I need to quote Rodney King?

[sactownfan]

Max,

Thanks for the apology. That's not why I wrote, but is still, sincerely appreciated. I guess my overall point is... how can we CHANGE things? Yes, daytime ratings are down. Just like they are for primetime. So all the people who act like it's the 80s and that soaps rule and get to do anything, if only the EP or Head writer knew what to do... are just not paying attention to reality...

So how do we fix this? And again, that's why I first posted. I am not interested in complaining... I want to suggest things to fix things!

[marceline]

When I saw this thread I knew you were going to get jumped on. There are always going to be people who think that if we don't mention the possibility that soaps are dying then everything will be just fine. It's whistling past the graveyard.

I used to be one of the first ones in a "how does daytime need to change" thread but now I simply no longer care. Soaps are dying but the audience for serial drama is still out here and many of us are willing to see what comes next. One of the things that I've been most pleased by has been the generally lukewarm response to Jay Leno's 10:00 show because its showing NBC that the audience for the scripted drama won't just shift to talk shows. But just because we won't watch Leno doesn't mean ER had to stay on FOREVER.

Daytime is in a state of transition and we have no choice but to ride it out.

[tina m]

What a terrible topic! I would guess ATWT would be the next to go, then maybe All My Children. Gosh, who knows.

[ian]

This post is exemplary. It is really nice to see two people have a disagreement and then resolve it with a sincere apology and a sincere acceptance of said apology all in the space of a couple posts. Kudos to maturity, it's a pleasant surprise and a nice change!

[dragonflies]

AMC-2010

ATWT-2010

OLTL-2011/2012

GH-2012/13

The rest I think will last through at least 2012-2014 or longer

AMC if they want the show to last, moving it to LA ain't going to make one damn difference as long as Pratt is there. OLTL I can see lasting longer cause it's demos are better than AMC's