All: In 5 years how many soaps will still be on the air?

[RoseVioletDaisy]

I think the bad economy might actually help the soaps to a certain degree. Yes, they're losing ad revenue because the Big Three and others are cutting back and the ratings aren't what they used to be but the companies that still are buying ads know that they have a certain audience with the soaps, even if it's lower than it used to be. And most soap advertisers, other than the auto and entertainment industries, tend to sell nearly recession-proof life staples: toothpaste, detergent, shampoo, common pantry items, etc. It would be far riskier to spend precious ad money on new game, talk, or reality shows in those slots when they have no built-up viewer loyalty and aren't yet certain of their exact demographics. With soaps, those factors are already known and factored in to their decision-making.

[marceline]

Well to stick with the dying relative analogy, do you pretend that that relative is going to be around years from now even as you pump them full of morphine? Doesn't that person and their loved ones deserve to face their dying head on if that's how they choose to face it? Should you not talk about where to scatter their ashes or ask them who they'd like to pass their precious possessions on to just because you find it too painful regardless of whether they do?

You don't want to be "bogged down" as you put it, would you rather be surprised and just wake up one day to discover your show's been canceled? If you would then so be it. But I have no problem acknowledging that some of these shows aren't going to make it ,if for no other reason than a tiny part of me hopes they will make way for something else. (Blasphemy, I know...) We've seen plenty of shows come and go: Search for Tomorrow, Capitol, Generations, Another World, etc... They all had people who watched them and mourned them.

I understand the discussion bothers some people but that isn't enough reason not to have it. No one is forced to take part. If we can talk about writers, actors and EP's coming and going, then those of us who wish to ought to be able to talk about the shows living or dying without a giant freakout. The web community is tiny. Those of us "dead pooling" have no more real effect on a show's survival prospects than a psychic doing a tarot card reading. It's the people off the boards who are or aren't watching that have a real effect. And all the forced optimism won't change that.

[All My Shadows]

True, true, true. I think we're talking about two different types of people. There are the overly optimistic who just want to fence themselves into a state of not believing that soaps' days are numbered, and there are the people who know that soaps' days are numbered, but aren't ready to bury them are still open to options that may keep them going. Believe it or not, I think I'm closer to those who believe that soaps are over no matter what than I might be to the people who truly believe that all of the shows currently on the air will be on the air for decades to come. I mean, I say things like "Well, twenty years from now, I'm sure OLTL's Sam is going to be one effed up individual," but in my mind, I know that odds are, there won't be a twenty years from now...as opposed to not even having the thought (that in 20 years, Sam will be nut city) or actively anticipating the day, 20 years from now, where Sam will be holding people hostage. I fall in the middle of the two mindsets that are more prominent. I wouldn't be surprised when the shows leave, but I wouldn't be surprised if they stayed on, either.

[Sylph]

Nurse Marceline, do you have the syringe ready?

[DavidEvanSmith]

All My Shadows, you're arguing with the notion in mind that there are more than two types of people in the world when it comes to soap viewership, and clearly that just mustn't be true. It's either the blind and ignorant who are forcing optimism because they can't deal with reality, or those who are evolved and clear-headed enough to accept and discuss openly that daytime is just gasping for its last breath and so we must take our time now to make sure we're prepared and have been put in the living will and are ready to split the inheritance.

I guess it's outlandish to think that there are those who KNOW they have no control over the end result but like to spend their time watching, debating, and celebrating the fact that the genre is still here, and by that reinforcing that the genre is still vital and worthy of care and attention. It just must be better to sit around and start thread after thread taking bets about what year this soap will take a nosedive into the cancellation bin and when this soap will be transferred to another network while the new network hopes to choke the last few breaths out of it for one more year before cancelling it once and for all. That's a much more productive use of our time and a great expression of our devotion to the genre, and a perfect illustration of why we're all here.

And isn't it just a more clever way to make a point when it's dripping with sarcasm?

[aMLCproduction]

GL will b canned in less than a year. In 5 years time and with current trends, I think THE ONLY shows left will be Y&R and B&B. Maybe an ABC show and MAYBE DAYS.

[marceline]

I forgot to address this. I really hope that somebody creates a web drama that causes some buzz. Again not something open ended but something more in the vein of an independent film, that could appeal to the lapsed and soon-to-be-lapsed soap viewer like myself.

Of course it would probably take another writers strike to make something like that happen.

[All My Shadows]

LOL. I feel for you, Dave, I really do. I'm not as annoyed by the threads as you are, but I get why it grates on your nerves so much. I don't really care if there's a new gloom and doom thread everyday...the only time I really get aggravated is when the same person posts, essentially, the same thread once a month or so (and I have one person in particular in my mind right now, and luckily, he hasn't shown up in this thread yet). If others choose to contemplate what's going to happen and how it's going to happen, that's fine and dandy. I just choose not to, but I also choose not to bury my head in the sand and act like nothing's wrong.

[dragonflies]

I'd be shocked if AMC is around a year from now. McTavish was the beginning of the downslide, B&E compounded it and Pratt is shoveling dirt onto it...........

Days is done for in 2010 I'd say

GL probably next year as well

[NYC123]

I hate these thread...........

Everyone is sooo positive!

[SFK]

I don't think "daytime drama" will disappear any time soon. If there are only two 30 min. soaps on the air, they will be padded with Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives reruns. A network is not going to air 4 hours worth of Judge shows a day. That's eight episodes, that's embarrassing. They will be forced to be more creative than that. Even though the numbers may be sucking, I think deep down people in this country are uncomfortable with the idea of any form of entertainment becoming extinct. We don't have the 37 game shows airing a day like we used to, but we still have them. Be prepared for a huge backlash if soaps are wiped from the canvas. I just don't see it happening any time soon. Again, things will probably change, but soaps won't completely disappear.

[marceline]

But didn't game shows almost vanish with the exception of a few that had what it takes to hold on? Specifically Price Is Right, Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy. Then someone took a chance on Millionaire, The Weakest Link (which failed) and Deal or no Deal. Likewise, I really believe that we can't move on to the next stage of daytime drama until we bury some of these current shows.

I know this makes me a heretic but if it would bring me a soap with strong women, a truly diverse cast and people who actually work for a living, I'll hold a pillow over Reva Shayne's face my damn self!

[SFK]

LOL, no, I feel you. It all feels so hopeless and fans get so frustrated because it seems like there's all the wrong people making all the wrong decisions in all the wrong places. I would love to see someone like my mother on a soap, and you would be entertained by her, but the only way that'll ever happen is if I'm writing it.

Those two hypothetical 30 min. soaps left standing would be the cream that rose to the top. When I was a kid, there were more soaps and many more game shows. We had one reality judge show, The People's Court, and two or three fictional judge shows like The Judge and Divorce Court (Do you guys remember those?? Don't get me started on them...). We also had more talk shows, Geraldo, Sally, et cetera. Now morning news/women's chat shows eat up the morning, then soaps, LOTS of judges, and a handful of talk. We're evolving, and honestly, I don't know what the hell will be next.

[All My Shadows]

The difference between soaps and games, though, is that games transitioned into their current position over several decades. In the 50s and 60s, game shows were most popular in either daytime or primetime, and then when the 70s rolled around, primetime game shows pretty much went away, but daytime thrived (golden age of game shows and daytime TV in general, folks!) and syndicated game shows found their footing and became institutions, too. Most of the real popular daytime shows also aired in syndication...Price is Right had a healthy eight-year syndicated run...Match Game had two successful syndicated runs, one that aired while the CBS version was still going strong, and another one that replaced the CBS version...Family Feud did six years in syndication while still on ABC, which was the same for Let's Make a Deal...Hollywood Squares ran in syndication and on NBC at the same time. The 80s continued in pretty much the same way, but by the end of that decade, it began to be adios time for daytime network games. Game shows were able to transition from one area (being mainly daytime, sometimes primetime, shows) to another (being mainly syndication, with the less traditional shows in primetime) without it being so abrupt. And there also wasn't a mass exodus of the "old" and an incoming of the "new." 30-40 years ago, there was The Price is Right, Family Feud, Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, Password. Today, there's The Price is Right, Family Feud, Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, Password. Sets, hosts, announcers, and some rules have changes, but at the heart of each show, the main idea is still there.

Soaps really don't have the money or the time to be gradual though. If there are gonna be format changes, it'll probably happen the way GL changed last year...on a set date, with all of the changes happening at once, which is really a shame. People keep talking about how soaps evolved from radio to television, but even then, there was a considerable amount of transition. The first hit TV soaps came in the early, early 50s, but radio soaps were still running until the early 60s. Even GL did four years of broadcasting on both TV and radio before becoming TV only.

I would personally love it if soaps could somehow squeeze into the early evening area. Not only would the ratings be higher (regardless of what the storylines are), but it would then actually make sense when people compare US soap ratings with UK soap ratings. I love my Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune at 6 and 6:30, but if I could get half-hour versions of AMC and ATWT there instead, I'd totally be there.

[detroitpiston]

Same here