All: Daytime Confidential Article on the state of the soap genre

[dragonflies]

Excellent article IMO! Basically about how soaps aren't as dead as people think they are:

http://www.daytimeconfidential.com/2008/12/soap-on-a-rope

[YRBB]

Thank you for posting. I, too, think that it is very good. All these assertions that daytime is dying have never sounded absolutely true to me and I'm glad to finally see someone else agree.

[Soapsuds]

Funny how the article mentions the 25-54 demo for GL. They have never been close to the top in that demo. So they are probably dead to last in that demo too. And in the 50+ demo they usually ranked 4th or 5th behind the rest of the CBS Lineup. Now with the new change you would think the 50+ and the 25-54 demo would drop like a rock. I am in that category...although in the male side but I no longer care to watch under the new changes. GL could bring back Maureen Bauer and I still wouldnt tune in. The new production values are just awful!! The horrendous writing of David Krieztman doesnt help either!!

[Soapsuds]

And GL is dead last in DVR as well.

[JaneAusten]

I think the blog brings up some good points but the real issue outlined here is not soaps it's television in general. Yes DVR viewing is probably higher than expected but this applies across TV Land and the execs(not just daytime) need to be positions to move to an on demand television/internet model come 10 years from now or maybe sooner. Network TV as we know it is changing and will be a thing of the past. Even Cable TV has flattened somewhat and will have to evolve as well.

I read an interesting article in medianet talking about the recession and the impact recessions have had on advertising $$$ over the last 50 years. In each recession, the new and up and coming media channel was hit the hardest(in the early 50's it was TV) but when the recession ended, they got a huge upswing which did not taper off until the early 90's. Ad revenue is being shared by network and cable TV(cable not as much as was expected at this point) and now the internet. The difference in this recession is that the general opinion is that ad $$$$ for the internet will continue to grow even through the recession while ad $$$ for network TV and cable will slowly drop.

In 10 years it will be interested to see where and how most of us are being entertained. Is digital TV it or will everything be transitioned over to the internet. Well the infrastructure for that won't be in place for anothe 15 years, so it should be an interesting evolution leading up to that

[MarkH]

J Bernard Jones (the author of the piece) sure inspired a lot of thought in this one. Enough that I started blogging about him, LOL.

He did inspire another of my damn graphs.

One of Jones' points is that it isn't only daytime that is declining. All of network TV is falling headlong into the crapper. NBC's announcement today that it was thinking of scaling back, possibly going to 4 days of new content, and giving primetime hours back to the affiliates (like Fox and CW do) is a deeper sign, to me, of where this is headed.

The whole affiliate system is a product of a bygone distribution system. Surely, the networks would love nothing more than to become all-cable outlets, where they keep 100% of the revenue, need to create fewer hours of original content, and don't have to deal with affiliates and clearances.

Anyway, Mr. Jones made me want to test the hypothesis. Can we in fact show evidence that daytime decline is basically part of a larger network decline? The blog deals with this in detail, but this picture tells the main story:

It appears J. Bernard has a point! Look at the period since the early 1990s. The slope of the decline is IDENTICAL for primetime and daytime!

Juxtaposing the two sets of numbers adds another fascinating insight. Daytime was on the leading edge of the decline, showing clear evidence of decline for the last 3-4 decades. Primetime, in contrast, was continuing to build through the late 70s. But then, when decline set in...the trajectory quickly emulated that of daytime. The amazing lockstep decline of the two figures is...breathtaking!

So, yes, daytime is not alone. In my words: "The sky is falling, but not just over the daypart".

[Ann_SS]

The decision by NBC to give Leno the 10:00 p.m. slot shows that the networks are beginning to look for ways to reduce costs by substituting expensive serials in favor of less expensive to produce talk shows. If this experiment succeeds, this does not bode well for the fest of prime time or soaps. Struggling shows will be canceled sooner than later.

[All My Shadows]

NBC is ridiculous. I read an article where Zucker pretty much said (this is not a quote) "Well, FOX and the CW and MyNetworkTV don't program 22 hours a week, so we don't have to either. And the CW doesn't program on Saturday nights either, so we don't have to either." It's like...dude...you're NBC, not FOX or the CW or MNTV. You're one of the big 3, you've been around for decades, and you shouldn't have screwed yourself into this position.

NBC doesn't want to get out of the soap business. They want to get out of the TV business all together.

[MarkH]

Well put! I agree.

I couldn't disagree more.

Programming round-the-clock (daytime, evening) 5 days a week, with weekend programming, distributed via a hodge podge of broadcast affiliates is a 1950s construct. It was supportable, in part, because limited viewing choices meant a concentration of ad dollars.

For all of Chris Goutman's negative press (saying there was no longer an appetite for 5-day-a-week soaps), the reality is that most surveys show that viewers DON'T watch their soaps every day. Moreover, in general, the ratings send a clear message that the broadcast network viewers aren't there anymore. They have gone elsewhere.

Like a weak heart...you might manage okay until stress. Then you keel over. The one-two punch of the WGA strike and the decision to 'cancel' last season (eyeballs went elsewhere, and forgot their shows), coupled with this economy that will continue to decline for another 18 months, created the perfect storm where the network broadcast economic model was not sustainable.

Like the complaints about Soapnet, and the complaints about SOD...what is happening on the networks isn't because of "bad people" or even "bad managers". This is about a changing financial model.

The networks don't even have critical successes anymore. Where are the buzz shows?

Mad Men? True Blood? Dexter? Not on broadcast networks.

Part of the brilliance of this cable model is that they CONCENTRATE their resources. A small number of shows. A small number of episodes (10-13/season). They repurpose those shows out the wazoo (run it multiple times a week; DVD sales). So, they really milk these shows.

This "low intensity commitment" has secondary benefits: (a) it fits with the lifestyle of an american public that can no longer sit down for 22 weeks and devote it to a show; ( an american public that -- due to DVDs and DVRs and so forth -- would rather watch a small quantity of GOOD stuff rather than lots of dreck; and © for those who LIKE dreck (e.g., Howie Mandel's show, or whatever), that can fill the primetime hours for that class of viewer.

My own sense is that the affiliates will be decoupled from the networks in the next decade. Most affiliates will die. Smaller communities will have, at best, a single affiliate. Those affiliates will run of local news and syndicated shows and infomercials.

Meanwhile, the nets will re-emerge solely as cable properties. They will have a much curtailed schedule.

I don't see a single thing in this scenario that is bad. It is evolution to the way we live and spend our time now.

Where it IS bad is for creators of scripted drama (in daytime, primetime, anywhere). That content market is drying up in a huge way. It is economically riskier than ever to go into the creative/dramatic arts. I do not forsee that changing either.

[All My Shadows]

I disagree with some of the things said here, but I can see that there's a point in there. I think that what NBC is doing right now is not something that's going to spill over to the other networks (really, ABC and CBS) at all. Before the strike, NBC was already headed into dire straits. ABC and CBS were in a much better place than them, and so while the strike hit those two hard, the impact it had on NBC was much worse. They hyped up several shows that failed to deliver (to their expectations, at least) and the hole continued to be dug (or digged or was dugged or whatever the hell -- I'm out of school for the winter, so grammar need not apply). And with this thing with Jay Leno on every night, I don't see how that's going to be a good thing. They tried to push "Deal or No Deal" as a multiple-times-a-week show and that hasn't turned out well (and who really expects the syndicated version to last long?). It's a situation that's unique to NBC at this point, I think. Could the others get there soon? Maybe. But I don't see ABC or CBS deciding to trim an hour from each weeknight to put a late night talk show in primetime. CBS already does reruns on Saturdays, ABC does college football, and NBC does various reruns (aside from "Crusoe," but really...), so it's not as if they're really doing anything on Saturdays anyway. (IMO, what they *should* do is take advantage of the fact that mostly older people watch network TV on Saturdays and treat it like CBS's daytime, with commercials for denture creams and life insurance and stuff, with *gasp* westerns and other older-skewing genres).

[dragonflies]

So damn true!

[Ann_SS]

If Jay Leno is successful at 10:00 p.m., I don't think that it is a stretch that ABC and CBS will rethink prime time their line up. These networks cannot continue to lose all this money when there is more successful alternative programming available. They may even take the daring step of luring Jon Stewart or Bill Maher, in his case, back to network tv.

I now advocate the telenovela format for the soaps and I still think that they are the best way to save the daytime soap serial. Maybe only 4 telenovelas a year for the most. A series of 12 or 13 episodes combining veteran and young new actors full of action and drama and ending with bang. The telenovelas will need lots of promotion, but since they are short it will not be very expensive.

[MarkH]

I agree with every word here!

If Leno succeeds, it is going to happen everywhere.

I think the telenovela....or a variety of short-term series...is the way to go.

Successful ones can come back for continuations/sequels/future series.