Cruz is ahead but it's within the margin of error. So you never know!

40 minutes ago, Soapsuds said:

Cruz is ahead but it's within the margin of error. So you never know!

Yeah, but Texas, for some reason, loves to keep voting against their own interests. As much as I wish Allred could pull an upset, I see Cruz easily winning again. And then the bitching from some Texans will continue, even as they are the ones that will usher him back in.

It's political Stockholm Syndrome.

Texas does seem to be fool's gold. I think Cruz will not lose with Trump on the ticket, but I hope he does. Hopefully Cruz will underperform polling the way he did in 2018.

Nevada is another state where polling is often off, but in favor of Democrats. Hopefully that will be the case this year as it seems to be a dead heat (some Culinary Union person said last week that if the election was held that day, Trump would win).

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2024/10/15/what-the-campaign-feels-like-in-nevada-00183798

An interesting article on the history of Nebraska's separate electoral vote.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/14/nebraska-2nd-district-battleground-00183400

 

 

 

Texas is like my home state (OK): in both cases, you're fighting against generations of deeply ingrained, ultra-conservative thinking from people who resent liberals, whom they perceive as looking down at them.  More often than not, they'll knowingly vote against their own interests, because it's more important to them to put liberals in their places.  (As I've said before in this thread, Democrats do pretty well in OKC and Tulsa, but once we head into the smaller towns, we're officially dead in the water.  I suspect a similar scenario always happens in TX as well.)

I'm not saying liberals can't make inroads in TX and "turn TX blue," but I think it'd take a different sort of strategy than what most left-leaning politicians are used to.

1 hour ago, Khan said:

Texas is like my home state (OK): in both cases, you're fighting against generations of deeply ingrained, ultra-conservative thinking from people who resent liberals, whom they perceive as looking down at them.  More often than not, they'll knowingly vote against their own interests, because it's more important to them to put liberals in their places.  (As I've said before in this thread, Democrats do pretty well in OKC and Tulsa, but once we head into the smaller towns, we're officially dead in the water.  I suspect a similar scenario always happens in TX as well.)

I'm not saying liberals can't make inroads in TX and "turn TX blue," but I think it'd take a different sort of strategy than what most left-leaning politicians are used to.

Texas also seems to have issues (and I suppose this is also true for OK) where many of the people who move there are hatemongers, swamping even those who were born in the state. IIRC exit polls (whatever those are worth) from the 2018 Senate race had Beto O'Rourke winning votes of people who were native Texans, and Cruz won transplants. There's a reason why scum like Elon and Joe Rogan and all his creepy cronies are flocking in.

Edited October 16, 20241 yr by DRW50

Trump is lucky that thanks to decades of free media and the whole machismo facade, a lot of people seem to shrug this stupidity off.

Harris campaign struggles in Pennsylvania and Michigan (a number of people have pointed out the usual agendas in these types of pieces - and one of the Michigan politicians complaining is tied to Kwame Kilpatrick).

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/detroit-harris-trump-michigan.html

Edited October 16, 20241 yr by DRW50

I saw the Semafor version of that same PA piece. It was reaching, the typical off-record Dem bedwetting.

The Baier interview seems to have gone well according to mainstream media punditry - Baier was aggressive and so was she. Here's the whole thing, plus some clips:

 

 

 

 

Cueball is charmed and most media seem pleased:

Not someone I'll generally ever quotetweet:

 

Meanwhile:

 

Oh, and:

 

David Plouffe's tweet seemed so oddly defensive that I was not sure how the interview went, so I'm glad if it was received well. I do think her legal background makes her more at home in confrontational interviews than friendly outlets (and some like Colbert have odd vibes that flare up even in friendly settings), even if it's a double-edged sword to go on Faux (if she's trying to appeal to Republican voters, some may respect her move, while others may just side with Baier and think she wasn't subservient enough).

22 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

David Plouffe's tweet seemed so oddly defensive that I was not sure how the interview went, so I'm glad if it was received well. I do think her legal background makes her more at home in confrontational interviews than friendly outlets (and some like Colbert have odd vibes that flare up even in friendly settings), even if it's a double-edged sword to go on Faux (if she's trying to appeal to Republican voters, some may respect her move, while others may just side with Baier and think she wasn't subservient enough).

There's always going to be spin in either direction - if you ask the Trump campaign it's all about how it's a total disaster, etc. But the mainstream media pundits seems pleased with her going on there and holding strong, as do many or our side. I do think there are more viewers to peel off and penetrate from in that bubble, and Fox cut the interview short. I also think she does better aggressive than trying to play soft.

I do wonder why Vance is finally being honest with the Trump party line now. Either they think they're going to win big, or they know they're going to rig it. 

1 minute ago, DRW50 said:

I do wonder why Vance is finally being honest with the Trump party line now. Either they think they're going to win big, or they know they're going to rig it. 

No, I think he's just cornered after being asked a dozen times lately and has decided to lean into MAGA and hope for the best.

 

I'm so anxious that I just wish November 5th would just get here, and let the chips fall where they may. You know?

Still, I have already done my part and voted a straight-blue ballot. I can only hope and pray enough other voters do the same.

Edited October 17, 20241 yr by Wendy