Thanks for the internals. I don't believe those Michigan Senate numbers, as Gary Peters nearly lost in 2020 and this election will likely be as close or closer than that one, even if Elissa Slotkin seems to be an overperformer. I am also hoping that the Wisconsin Senate numbers are wrong as I don't really get why they would be so close, unless it is due to the increasing homophobia and transphobia in this country, or some voters have a weird daddy fixation on Eric Hovde and his pornstache. I think Cruz will win in Texas, probably by 3-4 points, although I hope he loses as he's just a smarmy shitstain constantly begging for love. PA will likely be very close but unless Trump has a big night (which sadly seems more and more likely), I think Casey will pull it out.

The Ohio internal for Trump is interesting. If that is accurate, slimy Bernie Moreno (who now seems to be going around saying he's been subject to racist attacks - how ironic) is likely hosed. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes may also hold onto their Congressional seats.

Trump is going to win Iowa but if he doesn't have as big a blowout there as he did in 2020 Democrats might manage to get one of those Congressional seats back. The last polling for him, I think around the last debate, wasn't great by his 2020 standards but he seems to have made a real comeback since then.

Edited October 14, 20241 yr by DRW50

13 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

unless Trump has a big night (which sadly seems more and more likely)

I don't see that at all.

7 minutes ago, Vee said:

I don't see that at all.

I hope it doesn't happen, but I often thought (before Biden dropped out) the outcomes were a big Trump win or a narrow Biden win. With recent polling (if it's accurate) I am just putting Harris' name in place of Biden.

4 minutes ago, DRW50 said:

I hope it doesn't happen, but I often thought (before Biden dropped out) the outcomes were a big Trump win or a narrow Biden win. With recent polling (if it's accurate) I am just putting Harris' name in place of Biden.

Yes, but you have thought that re: Republicans for almost every cycle on this site that I can remember.  I also don't see any Dem win is automatically close but a Republican win would naturally be a mandate/blowout. That's just Politico thinking to me. Wouldn't a close election (if the polling matches the turnout, which I doubt) dictate that a win for either would therefore be close?

For me, the facts remain we're up in most polls by one number or another, and turnout is up as well - those numbers have not changed. Then you have these internals, which are pretty rough for the GOP period across the board. I am not seeing a major Trump comeback or likely win/sweep there. YMMV. For me, it's feeling like 2022 (and others have mentioned '12, but I am not there yet). But it could be bigger.

Anyway, here is a gift link for a NYT piece re: the Dem ground game vs. Trump's.

Edited October 14, 20241 yr by Vee

Not Sinead!

This is truly off, even for him. @marceline does not miss.

Kamala is now doing an interview with Bret Baier on Fox and (it's rumored) may be doing Joe Rogan next week. I think these are actually pretty smart because I see the strategy - I don't think Baier will outplay her and she's depriving Trump of his safe spaces, boxing him in. She continues to answer the nagging media question while continuing to push the angles she has been on the stump and in intvs for the last couple weeks; his cognitive decline, asking why he's hiding, why he won't do more interviews, why he won't do another debate, etc. I wouldn't be shocked if she next challenges him to show up for the Fox debate he offered and then rescinded. It's not desperation, it's offense.

I hated Sanders doing Rogan bc it felt like it was of a piece with him actively courting that incel/angry white vote in a very different way, coddling who they are, which he did over and over again at that time. Here, Kamala doing both Fox and potentially this feels like a psyop designed to continue to drill down into Trump and drive him nuts, so I can potentially stomach it.

Edited October 15, 20241 yr by Vee

2 hours ago, Vee said:

Not Sinead!

This is truly off, even for him. @marceline does not miss.

He finally apparently left the stage after swaying to November Rain. Yes, the Guns 'N Roses epic.

Because a Town Hall is the same as a concert!

If this POS can't handle a Town Hall, he has no business acting as POTUS. (But then, he was never really POTUS. Lackeys like Steven Miller run the show.)

This tweet sums up the raging hypocrisy:

 

Sinead?! 

She's now out there cursing him from the afterlife / great beyond

-- or she's not wasting a single drop of energy on him

 

Edited October 15, 20241 yr by janea4old

Some of the reporters at the hate rally mentioned that two attendees, one quickly after the other, had medical issues and were sent out. Some of the attendees begged for the doors to be opened as it was so hot inside. Kristi Noem made a "joke" blaming Harris and the economy for why the building wasn't in better shape.

You're absolutely right that Biden wouldn't get away with this. Or Harris, who was attacked by many for a Teleprompter issue which was not even hers, yet Trump can call Arizonans "Allyasians" and no one cares. His greatest strength is always that he can just do and say whatever the hell he wants and everyone shrugs. 

Edited October 15, 20241 yr by DRW50

1 hour ago, Vee said:

Kamala is now doing an interview with Bret Baier on Fox and (it's rumored) may be doing Joe Rogan next week. I think these are actually pretty smart because I see the strategy - I don't think Baier will outplay her and she's depriving Trump of his safe spaces, boxing him in. She continues to answer the nagging media question while continuing to push the angles she has been on the stump and in intvs for the last couple weeks; his cognitive decline, asking why he's hiding, why he won't do more interviews, why he won't do another debate, etc. I wouldn't be shocked if she next challenges him to show up for the Fox debate he offered and then rescinded. It's not desperation, it's offense.

I hated Sanders doing Rogan bc it felt like it was of a piece with him actively courting that incel/angry white vote in a very different way, coddling who they are, which he did over and over again at that time. Here, Kamala doing both Fox and potentially this feels like a psyop designed to continue to drill down into Trump and drive him nuts, so I can potentially stomach it.

Everything with Rogan and Bernie was part of a wagon train of delusion and toxicity, trust fund kids like Walker Bragman and deeply embittered "revolution" grifters like Brie Brie. If Harris goes on it won't be for those reasons and is (similar to her doing interviews with the Shade Room) just trying to cover all bases, but I do wonder if it will be seen as trying to chase Trump voters even as almost none of the Rogan fans/Trump voters will ever vote for her. Even the attempts at positive interviews she had recently ended up being spun against her by the press and seemed to hurt her numbers somewhat, if polls are any indication. Maybe the internal numbers are at a point where she thinks she has nothing to lose. If so I can't blame her for trying anything.

This is where we will differ again, because I don't think most of those interviews hurt her numbers and I don't think there is much that suggests that. But again, as I said above I also don't think there is any sign that her internals are bad or this is a desperation play - that is the right-wing framing about this, but it doesn't have a basis in reality to me. From what I can see it's offense to box Trump in and continue to drive him nuts and dig into his margins.

Edited October 15, 20241 yr by Vee

😟😮

 

🤦‍♀️

 

12 hours ago, Vee said:

This is truly off, even for him. @marceline does not miss.

And here's the thing: he's only going to get worse. He can't get better. Whatever cocktail they have him on isn't working anymore. I'm still waiting for a major medical event.

Edited October 15, 20241 yr by marceline