The Politics Thread

[Vee]

 

[I Am A Swede]

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This has been the most extraordinary day. If this really is the end of it then none of it makes any sense at all. What was this all about? Does Prigozhin really think that Putin is gonna honour any possible deal they made? Events in Russia can often seem illogical, but this one really takes the cake.

 

[Vee]

Unlikely.

I do not think this was a Putin op because he wouldn't expose himself like this.

[I Am A Swede]

Definitely not. This whole affair has made Putin look weak and ridiculous, and that is something he won't like at all. That's why Prigozhin's withdrawal makes no sense. He must realize that he now has a big fat target on his back. Actually nothing about Prigozhin's actions make sense. That's why it feels like there's more going on here behind the scenes.

[DRW50]

I do believe Prighozin is genuinely angry over his group having to do much of the work, but this has felt like a distraction to me for a while now, to play games with the West, and maybe lull Ukraine into a false sense of security (although I don't think this will work). Prighozin's broadsides against Russia (which rarely involve criticizing Putin himself) have gone on for months and nothing changes. I could see him doing all this to save face, with Putin going along for his own purposes, before they go back to what they love most - raping and torturing and murdering. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by DRW50

[DramatistDreamer]

[Cat]

I still wonder if all this is an act of grandiose political theatre, allowing Putin to suspend a paper-thin constitution and rubber-stamp legislature, become supreme leader, clear out the 'weaklings' in the Kremlim and military, give Prighozyn command of the military to go full scorched earth in Ukraine, and disseminate the false impression in the West that Russia may be about to topple.

Ukraine does not have command of the skies over Ukraine. Russian air force does. Air forces can also deploy nuclear missiles. I'm worried certainly about where this will lead. Even if it is a genuine coup.... this mercenary group is highly brutal, bloodthirsty and psychotic. As they showed in Bucha and countless other Ukrainian towns.

[DRW50]

Above I posted a tweet from someone who said how much this reminds them of what went on in Turkey in 2016 - a puppet show used as an excuse for further erosion.

[DramatistDreamer]

The headlines are just ridiculous now. One (who I won’t name) alluding Prigozhin might be a worthy presidential contender. Sigh.

[DramatistDreamer]

Something of a more nuanced take, which has seemingly been hard to find on social media today, in particular.

[Cat]

The idea that this guy might be easier to negotiate with than Putin, if not a 'better' leader for Russia going forward... absolutely ludicrous. He has exposed himself as no better than Chechen psycho Ramzan Kadyrov, only with delusions of controlling a massive country encompassimg 8 time zones. He is as nasty, grasping as RK, and (as this foolish attempt to take power from the Godfather shows) just as dumb and ridiculous.

I saw your post earlier, but when I came to posting, I wanted to link to it but couldn't find it! Your observation is very astute, as always. For years, VP famously employed a propaganda strategist who had originated in Moscow's theatre of the absurd. The point was to go through the motions of 'democracy' with fake, useless presidential candidates who ended up never winning, while blanketing Russia in opaque or false information to keep the people unknowing and on their toes (about 80-90% reportedly get their news from state television, and only state television). The falsehood of democracy became like a TV show, a sort of Russian Idol, where 'votes have been counted' and which eroded democracy with each passing election. Russia has never experienced democracy, certainly not a functioning one, and after the traumatic, violent, poverty-stricken, mafia state of the 1990s , democratic institutions had been completely tarnished as weak and highly ineffective.

[Cat]

And now apparently Putin's buffoonish puppet in Belarus has brokered peace between Wagner and VP? Lukashenko has invited Prigozhin to stay there, and the Kremlin says it won't be prosecuting anyone in the Wagner Group -- which would be a first, to say the least. 

The more I read, the more this whole mess reads fishy and manufactured. For what ends, though?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/25/wagner-boss-to-leave-russia-as-reports-say-us-spy-agencies-picked-up-signs-of-planned-uprising-days-ago

[I Am A Swede]

Of course they won't be prosecuting. But if Prigozhin thinks that he will live much longer I think he might be disappointed. Putin hasn't exactly been against poisoning people who have displeased him.

[Cat]

Yep. Sooner or later, VP will exact revenge. See Berezhovsky, Litvinienko, (almost) Navalny, among many others. No matter where they are in the world.

I just don't understand why Prigozhin called it all off, knowing VP's modus operandi. VP is ruthless and vengeful, and will want payback for being humiliated on the world stage. If this coup is even legit.

[I Am A Swede]

That might be the only thing that saves Prigozhin, if this whole thing was a scam. But would Putin agree to something like that when it made him look so utterly weak? I doubt it, but then again, who knows....