The Politics Thread

[DramatistDreamer]

It was more a plea, I forgot to add the word “please”. Biden’s last cabinet pick barely squeezed in, no thanks to Manchin. Sure, he could have calculated that he could vote no because Dems had just enough votes to confirm but I’m just tired of him being a stumbling block whenever possible.

[DRW50]

 

[Vee]

As if we didn't have enough going on over here between our politics and the reign of David Zaslav, meanwhile in Russia:

An informative, long thread:

Near the end of it:

 

[DRW50]

I saw some claims that Putin is doing this to strengthen his hand and root out those he sees as betrayers or weak, as happened in Turkey a few years back. I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[DramatistDreamer]

For years, I have been reading about the Wagner mercenary group and their ruthless exploits as thugs for hire at the side of autocrats and despots throughout the continent of Africa and when I read that not only Putin had decided to join with them, but gave Prigozhin a free hand in Ukraine (allowing Prigozhin to release convicts, including rapists and murderers) I only ever imagined some sort of bitter power struggle down the road, especially once Prigozhin began to publicly berate Shoigu, while Putin stood by and allow open hostilities between the leader of the mercenary group and the general fester. Putin, and by extension, the Russian state is reaping what Putin has sown (chaos and instability).
Putin’s reasons for invading Ukraine have always been built on a shaky foundation, to the point where he seems to have either missed or chosen to ignore the willingness to join forces with a bloodthirsty mercenary group whose origins stem from a fascination with aspects of nazism (Prigozhin chose the name Wagner for a reason) while decrying his supposed urgency to rid Ukraine of Nazis, totally disregarding the fact that Ukraine has a Jewish leader. Putin started citing and emphasizing the supposedly rampant nazi sympathizing in Ukraine, while ignoring all the nationalist groups with nazi sympathies in Russia, a number of whom were responsible for savagely beating African and Indian students who were studying in Russia. 

It’s fascinating to watch and read about the creeping political instability in Russia and wondering how the average Russian perceives the current events in their country and region. A large number (even factoring in dissidents and those who may disagree with their current leader) chose to continue to tie themselves and their nation’s fate to this one autocrat, usually citing a predictable and ordered stability, even if it is achieved through strong-arm rule. From the outside though, Russia looks highly unstable politically.
I guess we’ll just have to see what happens next.

[I Am A Swede]

All this is a bit scary. So many unsubstantiated rumours flying around. God only knows how all this will end.

[Vee]

It's hard to know what is happening or what to believe. Best to just filter and curate as best one can.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Noel]

I'm in Russia right now. No, I'm kidding, but it was cool to see Noel Reports. I'm so confused about this development though and I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. As far as the confident street sweeper, I saw that part. Hey, a street has gotta be cleaned despite a coup with military tanks all over the place, ya know? It goes to show that worker takes pride in their work. Respect. 

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Edited June 24, 2023 by Noel

[I Am A Swede]

This is hardly the development Putin and his cronies had in mind when they attacked Ukraine last year....

[DramatistDreamer]

Briefly, I decided to pop in on Twitter, where I no longer have an account and the misinformation is strong on that platform. Despite only venturing onto the pages of mainstream news organizations, if you scroll down, you will see random verified accounts with dubious posts below the tweets from legitimate news organizations. It’s all a random algorithmic mess. I wouldn’t recommend Twitter unless you keep your eyes focused on legitimate news twitter accounts, avert your eyes from the paid ads and weird paid-verified accounts spewing nonsense.

Talk about your rules of unintended consequences! Putin had to have known, even in the back of his mind, that he was taking a risk with a loose cannon like Prigozhin but he decided to take the calculated risk, perhaps hoping that some mix of patriotic feeling and a laissez faire attitude from the Russian state would be enough to keep Prigozhin girded close to him. It appears that Putin has miscalculated. Prigozhin’s group of mercenaries picked up the slack with a lot of the fighting and he probably figures that Mother Russia needs him and Wagner group more that he/Wagner need Mother Russia. This is a group of mercenaries that have been in Syria and Central African Republic, Libya, Sudan and other nations. They have been paid in diamonds, gold and other minerals and precious metals…they have undoubtedly made many connections outside of Russia (Russia enabled and assisted them in cultivating their connections, but that’s a different story). Now that Prigozhin has had a taste of power and autonomy, it will be interesting to see what, if any tools Putin has to try to bring Prigozhin to heel. Somehow I doubt the Navalny treatment will work this time.

[I Am A Swede]

I think the main thing is that they expected Ukraine to fall easily and that the invasion would be successful in a matter of days. When that didn't happen Putin had no way out, and now that miscalculation is coming home to roost....

[DramatistDreamer]

Another miscalculation, based on how the Russian military was able to wrest Crimea away. But Prigozhin is a different kettle of fish. Putin made the mistake of believing that a mercenary loose cannon could be granted autonomy and influence to plunder the world over and be controlled after that. It’s like a series of seemingly separate miscalculations that have had a domino effect.

 

[I Am A Swede]

Something like this could not have happened before the invasion of Ukraine, because then the Russian army would have been around to hit back immediately. Now most of that army is tied down in the Ukraine, and if Putin withdraws troops from there to help then that would give the Ukraine the upper hand and give them a golden opportunity to reclaim their territory.

[Vee]

 

[DramatistDreamer]

What Julia Ioffe mentioned is what I intimated about the difference between Navalny and Prigozhin when I mentioned that Putin would not be able to handle Prigozhin in the manner that he did Navalny. Navalny wanted to take on and win by way of the ballot, Prigozhin is a mercenary who has been backed over the years, mainly by battle hardened fighters who fought in Syria and in various conflicts like Libya and the CAR on the African continent. Consider the fact that Prigozhin has been working with many formerly incarcerated Russian men, some jailed for violent crimes, I doubt he’d be cowed by prison.

Like I said, a different kettle of fish.