international success means nothing to advertisers.

On the positive side (I know a shock in the ratings sections LOL), all the CBS soaps were slightly up from last week. Also, the losses by B&B and ATWT from last year are downright small. Compare that to GH, OLTL and AMC losses, which is scary. (Although Y&R is nearly same, it comes from a much larger base.) Here's hoping all of the shows start to stablize.

It is weird that people predicted this year we would all be talking about the decline of Price is Right in the ratings. Price Is Right has held on despite the fact that it is not as good with Drew Carey. But the fact is the games and all are still teh same and that has kept viewers tuning in.

Thanks for posting the numbers. I'm not sure if any soaps will go up right now based on the current story lines. OLTL might get a little jump from the 40th anniversary episodes, but that's really about it.

I hope AMC gets better with the new writer coming on board.

My question is, with a much smaller pool of soaps, will that drive ratings up for the remaining ones, or just drive them down for all. I think we know the answer and it is not good.

Yeah. History shows that when viewers leave a show, they do not go to another. That is why each show/viewer lost is a loss for the genre.

ATWT may last that long, but GL is gone in 2009, no doubt. It was only renewed for one year, until September 2009, and that was based on early ratings that showed GL having no significant drop from the new production model....of course, as soon as it was renewed, it dropped like a stone, lol. I don't see CBS picking it up again, especially since it will likely be even lower by the time they make their decision whether or not to renew or cancel it again (May of next year at the latest).

This package deal thing is a good question. I guess P&G is lobbying for the package because they have some cross-show "daytime division" expenses (i.e., infrastructure) that would be too large to bear for a single soap. So, I think the issue may be that if GL is cancelled, P&G can't afford to keep ATWT.

P&G has historically resisted selling its' shows. That would be the fix though...cancel GL and sell ATWT to CBS. P&G has started selling its' classic brands off (e.g., "Prell"), so maybe they would finally consider doing that with daytime soaps too.

Of course you know the answer TC. Passions was cancelled.......and what happened to the other soaps ratings?? You know the answer. Once ATWT is over....and probably Y&R although I dont watch anymore..I am done with soaps in general.

ATWT is gone in 2009 then also. Because when they got picked up...it was a package deal. If GL is canned so is ATWT.

Yup, that's basically what I thought.

The only deviations from your prediction might be: (a) they uncouple ATWT from GL, or ( GL gets cheap enough that they continue to renew both, but really only care about ATWT.

The current renewal may have been a "package deal," but the next one doesn't have to be. If CBS is only willing to renew ATWT, P&G will have to deal with it. P&G would rather have money from one soap on the air than zero.

I don't know.... There is a lot of infrastructure...corporate office/staff...You are right ONLY if the financials still give P&G a net profit. With international sales almost down to zero, ATWT needs to earn just about all of its costs PLUS profits from CBS only. I'm not sure CBS can afford to pay that much.

This is why I think GL's fate seriously compromises ATWT.

B&B's safety net is that it does so well internationally, it can lower it's licensing fee to CBS (if necessary) and still make lots of money. However, I still see the ABC soaps lingering the longest, even if it's only for a year or two once the other shows have all gone. It'll be interesting to see what happens....arguably more interesting than what's transpired on most of the shows themselves lately, lol.

Well, here is my question: One of the history books I read yesterday said, a decade ago, B&B had 250 million viewers internationally. IS THAT REALLY TRUE?

Because didn't someone post here within the past few weeks that B&B had 25 million viewers internationally? Am I dreaming that?

One never knows if the two numbers are comparable...but to me this suggests a free fall globally...and suggests that B&B is no safer than any other soap.

If you pay attention, B&B has done less expensive stunt casting in recent years. Patrick Duffy only comes in for brief arcs. Phoebe and Steffie are newbies pushed to the front burner. This seems like classic soap cost cutting to me.

Thanks for posting the numbers. I'm not sure if any soaps will go up right now based on the current story lines. OLTL might get a little jump from the 40th anniversary episodes, but that's really about it.

I hope AMC gets better with the new writer coming on board.

The new world order is that nothing bumps numbers up. Ron Carlivati said it best to Nelson Branco: Try to hold on to old viewers as the primary goal. They welcome new viewers, but.... (they are realistic).

Can someone explain to me what ABC is trying to do with Nightshift? I have read several people say it is Brian Fron's way of trying to keep soaps alive or turn them into primetime shows? I am not sure it's either or maybe it's both. I am not criticizing it just trying to understand the objective.

Edited June 27, 200817 yr by emilyq

What a bitchy thing to say, not including OLTL that's trying so hard right now.

I know that you're kidding but let me explain before someone else jumps on me.

No matter how "wonderful" and "classic" OLTL is right now, the show doesn't have the historic crossover cache of AMC or GH. AMC brought the world Erica Kane and the great Susan Lucci Emmy race brought the show to the consciousness of people who never watched a soap. And we all know what a force of nature Luke and Laura were. OLTL doesn't have anything like that. IMO, the next show with that kind of historical appeal would be DAYS. I remember seeing Deirdre Hall on the Arsenio Hall show (how's that for a rewind?).

And as much as I'm ready to see what the next generation of soap turns out to be. I want the ones currently on to get the goodbye they've earned.

Can someone explain to me what ABC is trying to do with Nightshift? I have read several people say it is Brian Fron's way of trying to keep soaps alive or turn them into primetime shows? I am not sure it's either or maybe it's both. I am not criticizing it just trying to understand the objective.

Here's what I put together myself this morning at my blog (albeit from a different starting point). This is an excerpt from a longer posting.

So, do all these shows HAVE to last 50 years? No! What's the matter with 2-3 great years, and then we move on.

More and more, I'm feeling that the super-annuated nature of the daytime form is part of what is killing it...the burden of history just gets too heavy and cumbersome.

The best primetime shows are those that have a defined lifespan. My favorites are the HBO shows, with their clear 5-season 13-episode/season arcs. They shine brightly, they are coveted as brief jewels, and then they disappear. Even in primetime, the longest shows usually last 5 or 7 seasons...and then we have our memories of greatness.

I think part of the reason the serial reality shows (American Idol, Survivor) thrive is because they require a thirteen week commitment, and then you get a rest, and then you revisit the franchise but with some fresh 'characters". I think that is the new reality...and and that is what soaps need to evolve into.

Much as I love my soaps, I really think the secret to renaissance is to start over. I'd even be open to--after a rest--trying to move one of the existing soaps into a true telenovela format for limited runs.

IN THAT SENSE, though he is vilified, I think Brian Frons' attempt to do Night Shift--and his apparent limited success with it (peak ratings for SoapNet, if the hype is to be believed)--is an excellent demonstration of the way of the future.

Mark, I agree with your blog. Now I don't think all these soaps should cancel themselves right now, but I do think when they die a natural death, that what you suggest is the answer. 30, 40, 50 years is a long time and I don't know if there is any way that soaps can interest a majority of viewers across that kind of generation swath.

Not to be morbid, but I think Days will stay on the air as long as Frances Reid is alive. Once she passes, and given her age that realistically will be in the next few years, Alice Horton will also pass away, and with her, Salem. Having watched Days for over 2/3 of my life (since the early 80's), it's not a day I look forward to, and I can't say exactly when it will happen, but I know it's inevitable.