Because THAT worked so well.

I'm sure if the demos were higher, Frons would consider buying it. But frankly, if the demos aren't much better (and if Corday's not willing to part with it), I don't think Frons will touch it. Plus, he's a "brand marketing guy" (hence the homogenization of the ABC opening credits). He'd want Days to fit into his mold.

DOOL is obviously a failure on SoapNet, which is why it got pushed back to 11 pm, and why it is now pre-empted 2 out of 5 days a week.

No hope for DOOL with Disney.

I think the cancellation of the P&G soaps will more likely happen in 2011, but yes, I agree, the end is near.

I see you waiting up late for your bf...I see a mustache on your face. Yes I am here.

*giggle*

Seriously, I think your numbers are probably right, if not a little generous.

I think the cancellation of the P&G soaps will more likely happen in 2011, but yes, I agree, the end is near.

It's either going to be 2010 or 2011. I dont see it going past 2011.

*giggle*

Seriously, I think your numbers are probably right, if not a little generous.

Well, I am just going by the drops they had yearly. AMC and GH usually have -.3 yearly drops. OLTL -.2 drops. And if ABC does outlast them all ......the production values will be just as bad or worse than GL with no stars left on their shows but LaLuci, and a handful of others. You know how I feel about GL now...no reason to watch the crap of a show.

Edited June 26, 200817 yr by Soapsuds

At the rate soaps are going yearly this is what ABC would look like

2010:

AMC 1.4

OLTL: 1.7

GH: 1.6

2011:

AMC 1.1

OLTL 1.5

GH: 1.3

2012:

AMc 0.8

OLTL 1.3

GH; 1.0

So ABC would keep their shows past 2012 with those kind of ratings?? Wow,,,,,I just dont see them doing it. JMO of course.

Your decline slope is shallower than my model :-)

From last week:

Let's assume that is a linear function, and constant across all soaps (I know these are big assumptions, but play with me). Where does that bring us?

While we're at it, let's make one other TINY little assumption: Soaps are automatically cancelled when they reach a rating of 1.0 or lower.

This flawed projection says that we lose GL in 2010 (i.e., this last renewal was its last). It says 2011 is the year of hemmorhage and bloodshed, with Days, OLTL, AMC, and ATWT all leaving us. By the way, that's about right (maybe a year late) given recent contract extensions for Days and ATWT. It says both shows will get one last renewal. Finally, the mighty tumble. We lose GH in 2012, B&B in 2013. Y&R hangs on all the way to 2016.

Of course, I know this is nonsense. Decline is actually FASTER than linear right now. Rank orders shift weekly. The 0.3 loss per year is too global. Still, for me, this kind of figure clearly illustrates inevitability. I'm probably off by a year or so here or there. But basically, this is my anticipated future. I'd love to be proven wrong.

I'm just predicting Mark..that is all. I could be way off....but I highly doubt soaps will see only -.1 drops yearly. We have to face the facts.

And where is Toups? Where is he hiding?? I need my ratings fix.

It's either going to be 2010 or 2011. I dont see it going past 2011.

Well, I am just going by the drops they had yearly. AMC and GH usually have -.3 yearly drops. OLTL -.2 drops. And if ABC does outlast them all ......the production values will be just as bad or worse than GL with no stars left on their shows but LaLuci, and a handful of others. You know how I feel about GL now...no reason to watch the crap of a show.

Your decline slope is shallower than my model :-)

My question is, with a much smaller pool of soaps, will that drive ratings up for the remaining ones, or just drive them down for all. I think we know the answer and it is not good.

DOOL is obviously a failure on SoapNet, which is why it got pushed back to 11 pm, and why it is now pre-empted 2 out of 5 days a week.

No hope for DOOL with Disney.

I think the cancellation of the P&G soaps will more likely happen in 2011, but yes, I agree, the end is near.

ATWT may last that long, but GL is gone in 2009, no doubt. It was only renewed for one year, until September 2009, and that was based on early ratings that showed GL having no significant drop from the new production model....of course, as soon as it was renewed, it dropped like a stone, lol. I don't see CBS picking it up again, especially since it will likely be even lower by the time they make their decision whether or not to renew or cancel it again (May of next year at the latest).

Edited June 26, 200817 yr by Carolyn1980

My question is, with a much smaller pool of soaps, will that drive ratings up for the remaining ones, or just drive them down for all. I think we know the answer and it is not good.

Of course you know the answer TC. Passions was cancelled.......and what happened to the other soaps ratings?? You know the answer. Once ATWT is over....and probably Y&R although I dont watch anymore..I am done with soaps in general.

ATWT may last that long, but GL is gone in 2009, no doubt. It was only renewed for one year, until September 2009, and that was based on early ratings that showed GL having no significant drop from the new production model....of course, as soon as it was renewed, it dropped like a stone, lol. I don't see CBS picking it up again, especially since it will likely be even lower by the time they make their decision whether or not to renew or cancel it (May of next year at the latest).

ATWT is gone in 2009 then also. Because when they got picked up...it was a package deal. If GL is canned so is ATWT.

Of course you know the answer TC. Passions was cancelled.......and what happened to the other soaps ratings?? You know the answer. Once ATWT is over....and probably Y&R although I dont watch anymore..I am done with soaps in general.

Exactly. I know you're more of an ATWT viewer, but there'd be no point in you getting emotionally connected to its competition if it's only a matter of time for that show too. I felt the same way about OLTL when it was Higley Hell and ratings outhouse basement. ATWT could have been the contemporary reincarnation of William Shakespeare and I still would have been reticent about getting emotionally attached to it. Maybe I overstate my case, but ...

Of course you know the answer TC. Passions was cancelled.......and what happened to the other soaps ratings?? You know the answer. Once ATWT is over....and probably Y&R although I dont watch anymore..I am done with soaps in general.

ATWT is gone in 2009 then also. Because when they got picked up...it was a package deal. If GL is canned so is ATWT.

The current renewal may have been a "package deal," but the next one doesn't have to be. If CBS is only willing to renew ATWT, P&G will have to deal with it. P&G would rather have money from one soap on the air than zero.

BTW, I should add that it wasn't exactly a "package deal." While it's true both ATWT and GL were renewed together until September 2009, there is an automatic option for CBS to pick up GL at the same licensing fee through September 2010 if they wish. In other words, they're locked into a specific cost for GL that CAN'T go up if they choose to renew it another year (September 2009-2010). But P&G didn't give them that automatic option on ATWT, figuring they would be in a better bargaining position with that show than they would be with GL. So CBS would have to renegotiate the fee for ATWT if they wanted to renew that one through September 2010. I suspect they will, but will not exercise the automatic option on GL if it continues to sink.

Wow...ATWT at #4 in Total Viewers. That is too funny.

Damn. Look at those year-to-year numbers. It looks like all that's left is to determine in what order the shows will die. Here's my guess:

GL, DAYS, ATWT then B&B. The next gets a little harder. I think ABC will dump OLTL. It doesn't have the cache of GH (Luke and Laura) or AMC (the home of Erica Kane) then AMC will go next. Then GH and Y&R will die together.

But I could see GH going before AMC.

Edited June 26, 200817 yr by marceline

ATWT

Wednesday: 1.9/2,904,000---------Hmmm....a large amout of viewers not HH's. Barbara was poisoned by Meg. Wow....funny concept...you show your vets or vet in danger....possible story..and u gets viewers...I would have never thought of that...ends sarcasm.

Damn. Look at those year-to-year numbers. It looks like all that's left is to determine in what order the shows will die. Here's my guess:

GL, DAYS, ATWT then B&B. The next gets a little harder. I think ABC will dump OLTL. It doesn't have the cache of GH (Luke and Laura) or AMC (the home of Erica Kane) then AMC will go next. Then GH and Y&R will die together.

But I could see GH going before AMC.

Unless one of the ABC shows REALLY starts to tank....or one of them REALLy breaks away and does significantly better than the other two, all three will go together. The differences in ratings among the three shows, even the demographics, are negligible. And for the record, I think all three will be the last to go.