34 minutes ago, Vee said:

I mean Biden. The conversation they're having moves from Harris' current totals (where she's not losing as much of the Black/Latino vote as once speculated) to months-old predictions that Joe would lose a lot as well. Cohn gets very angry when Carlson suggests predictions of Trump's major minority support have been a mirage all along.

I really don't understand why people believe any of this especially since every election since I can recall, the GOP are always projected to be picking up black votes and it never happens.

36 minutes ago, JaneAusten said:

I really don't understand why people believe any of this especially since every election since I can recall, the GOP are always projected to be picking up black votes and it never happens.

I think if it were a "regular" GOP candidate, a la Reagan or either Bush, etc., that story would be shrugged off.

But I think Trump has given so many people PTSD that even the thought of him gaining support is seen with trepidation/fear, and fear causes people to believe what they may not otherwise.

I'm no analyst, obviously, but I will say that numbers of minority Georgia voters thus far is being seen as low/weak. Now, whether that is just more narrative or based in truth, we can only wait and see come November 5th, assuming it is correct, and see if that demographic increases.

Edited October 23, 20241 yr by Wendy

 

Let me put it this way: I don't necessarily believe that Trump is gaining ground with Black men, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually were.  Speaking as a Black man, I know how many of my fellow Black men (and even some Black women) can be swayed by a Victor Newman-esque "badass" like Donald Trump, who is wealthy (or, in his case, pretends to be) and who says and does whatever the [!@#$%^&*] he wants and doesn't care at all whether you like it.

I realize it sounds like I'm denigrating my fellow African-Americans...and I don't know, maybe I am.  (I'm certainly not suggesting that the AA community is a monolith, however).

Edited October 23, 20241 yr by Khan

1 hour ago, Khan said:

Let me put it this way: I don't necessarily believe that Trump is gaining ground with Black men, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually were.  Speaking as a Black man, I know how many of my fellow Black men (and even some Black women) can be swayed by a Victor Newman-esque "badass" like Donald Trump, who is wealthy (or, in his case, pretends to be) and who says and does whatever the [!@#$%^&*] he wants and doesn't care at all whether you like it.

I realize it sounds like I'm denigrating my fellow African-Americans...and I don't know, maybe I am.  (I'm certainly not suggesting that the AA community is a monolith, however).

I've seen a number of black men online say that it's not fair for people to constantly question and criticize their vote (which is one of the reasons many seemed angry over Obama's speech), because many still vote for Democrats, and people just seem to zero in on them while many more Hispanic men vote for Republicans, white women vote for Republicans, etc. And I do wonder if this backlash leads more to support Republicans, along with the other reasons you've given. 

I also see constant guttural, dehumanizing attacks against Harris from the likes of Judge Joe Brown and Candace Owens, clearly tailored to the most cynical approach possible to get black voters, especially black men.

And I do wonder, as much or more than Hillary in 2016, how much there are built-in reasons many won't vote for Harris that they just won't say out loud - although many are clearly comfortable saying them out loud.

Another poll came out today showing a big increase in support for Trump among black and Hispanic voters, and I saw comments about MSNBC having propaganda yesterday with black voters who support Trump, so I do think there is going to be a big jump in support. 

The only issue is exit polls often overcount non-white support for Republican candidates, so we can't take those as reliable.

Edited October 23, 20241 yr by DRW50

End of an era

 

 

2 hours ago, Khan said:

Let me put it this way: I don't necessarily believe that Trump is gaining ground with Black men, but on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually were.  Speaking as a Black man, I know how many of my fellow Black men (and even some Black women) can be swayed by a Victor Newman-esque "badass" like Donald Trump, who is wealthy (or, in his case, pretends to be) and who says and does whatever the [!@#$%^&*] he wants and doesn't care at all whether you like it.

I realize it sounds like I'm denigrating my fellow African-Americans...and I don't know, maybe I am.  (I'm certainly not suggesting that the AA community is a monolith, however).

Recent polling has Harris 86-8 with black voters.  Those are Biden numbers so her numbers have gone up.  I hear what you're saying, but I still don't buy "the inroads". Of course you know better than me, but it's not you I distrust it's the media and the broken polling industry. As for the media, all the networks always focus on Dems in Trouble and Dems in Disarray including MSNBC. It's their way of keeping their viewers anxious and tuning back in.

I don't think Khan is saying it's definitely happening. He just gets the mindset. I get it, but I also don't think Trump's picked up substantially damaging Black support.

In other news, Jonathan Weisman has blamed the Times' handling of the John Kelly story re: its front page on... the printing press.

 

Meanwhile:

 

The LAT owner (Soon-Shiong) has taken to Twitter(!) to lament that the editorial board would not simply post 'explainers' of each candidate's positions instead of an endorsement, so you can tell this is going well for him.

2 hours ago, DRW50 said:

I've seen a number of black men online say that it's not fair for people to constantly question and criticize their vote (which is one of the reasons many seemed angry over Obama's speech), because many still vote for Democrats, and people just seem to zero in on them while many more Hispanic men vote for Republicans, white women vote for Republicans, etc. And I do wonder if this backlash leads more to support Republicans, along with the other reasons you've given. 

I also see constant guttural, dehumanizing attacks against Harris from the likes of Judge Joe Brown and Candace Owens, clearly tailored to the most cynical approach possible to get black voters, especially black men.

And I do wonder, as much or more than Hillary in 2016, how much there are built-in reasons many won't vote for Harris that they just won't say out loud - although many are clearly comfortable saying them out loud.

Another poll came out today showing a big increase in support for Trump among black and Hispanic voters, and I saw comments about MSNBC having propaganda yesterday with black voters who support Trump, so I do think there is going to be a big jump in support. 

The only issue is exit polls often overcount non-white support for Republican candidates, so we can't take those as reliable.

Not trying to be rude or mean but are you sure these are real Black men and not people posing as Black men? The round table discussions I have watched Black men are saying, that while they don’t think they are the problem (still noting how many white men and white women who were formerly Democrats-anyone remember those who claimed to have voted for Obama twice before voting for 45?-broke bad for 45) the majority said they understood why Obama felt compelled to speak and say what he said.

And what we’re not gonna do is use the likes of Candace Owens and Joe Brown (last seen trying to beg his estranged wife to reunite with him) as representative of any sort of community lol. ‘Judge’ Joe Brown and Candace Owens spent years denigrating Black men, wtf would any listen to either of them now?? 
 

Are people still breathlessly watching these polls? Seriously? 

32 minutes ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Not trying to be rude or mean but are you sure these are real Black men and not people posing as Black men? The round table discussions I have watched Black men are saying, that while they don’t think they are the problem (still noting how many white men and white women who were formerly Democrats-anyone remember those who claimed to have voted for Obama twice before voting for 45?-broke bad for 45) the majority said they understood why Obama felt compelled to speak and say what he said.

And what we’re not gonna do is use the likes of Candace Owens and Joe Brown (last seen trying to beg his estranged wife to reunite with him) as representative of any sort of community lol. ‘Judge’ Joe Brown and Candace Owens spent years denigrating Black men, wtf would any listen to either of them now??

I agree - that's why I said the most cynical approach. It's just sickening, playing into the epitome of misogynoir. I don't think that is how most black male voters base their decisions, but I do think a lot of time and money is going into trying to steer to that type of approach (sexist slurs, going on about Harris lying about her race, about being Christian, and so on). It's a win-win for the GOP and their moneymen, because if there is a big movement to Trump, this is what will be cited as the cause, which will lead to even more division among an already breaking coalition of Democratic voters. 

Some of the comments could be blackfishing, but many seem to be real, albeit some are grifters, or Astead Herndon.

 

This is exactly why I believe very little on any network INCLUDING MSNBC.  It's all performance and acting based on the message they want to send.  And it's the kind of thing that makes me believe the entire black voters going to Trump is a mirage that even the media is playing up.  But not with facts.

As for social media, there are so many trolls on X/Twitter - I only go there for specific accounts - and I am with @DramatistDreamer. Too many trolls too many fake accounts. And it's 100 times worse than it was before. 

10 minutes ago, JaneAusten said:

This is exactly why I believe very little on any network INCLUDING MSNBC.  It's all performance and acting based on the message they want to send.  And it's the kind of thing that makes me believe the entire black voters going to Trump is a mirage that even the media is playing up.  But not with facts.

MSNBC is tagged as liberal due to a few hosts but is just as right wing and corporate as Faux News and CNN. After hearing about Anderson Cooper's questions to Kamala Harris tonight, including a tsk-tsk about tax increases on people who make more than 500K, I wish Democrats were in a position to ice out cable news altogether.

 

Edited October 24, 20241 yr by DRW50

Incredibly annoyed (if not surprised) to see clips circulating of Jake Tapper, David Axelrod and Dana Bash panning Harris after the town hall. Between that and Anderson Cooper's tactics I wonder if she was set up. It's deja vu to 60 Minutes, right down to people saying "even CNN" is critical of her. I think those interviews hurt her momentum, and with how much the momentum feels like it has already shifted against her that's the last thing she needs right now. 

I'm not saying this to act like Harris is great at interviews, because I don't think she is, but they always make it sound like she's a disaster, and when you say that enough, people believe it.

I think the town hall was pretty solid in terms of the Q&A from the actual voters. Anderson OTOH kept interjecting desperately trying to prosecute her on gotcha questions.

But right wingers spamming the Twitter threads or YT links to crow about her 'flopping' (which they do on every single appearance she makes) is not an accurate metric of general viewer/voter response, nor do I think we can determine if this town hall hurt her momentum in any way in the first 4-6 hours afterwards based on that kind of spam. Everything else is just individual personal vibes.

 

Edited October 24, 20241 yr by Vee