May 18-22, 2009

[Eric83]

Ok I'm confused as to why Y&R is owned by Sony yet B&B isn't. Couldn't the Bells sell it to Sony or something. I don't like B&B, but I don't want to see CBS basically cancel off its whole lineup in a span of 2-3 years.

[CSF]

Why would the Bell's want to sell their soap to Sony? They take in all they profit from B&B and would lose it all by selling it to Sony. Y&R isn't fully owned by Sony. Sony owns the majority, but like 49% or so is owned by the Bell's, 1% is owned by Corday Holdings and the rest, is owned by Sony. Sony is the majority holder of Y&R.

[Eric83]

^ Ok I get what you're saying. Speaking of which when are the Bell Soaps up for renewal, and the ABC Soaps. I only know/knew about the renewals for DAYS/ATWT/GL.

[Carolyn1980]

The ABC soaps don't come up for renewal. Since ABC owns all three, they can cancel them anytime they want. Tomorrow, if they felt like it.

[MarkH]

Yes, the Bells make the $$ on B&B...but it is NOT a package deal with Y&R. As DaytimeFan often told us, THAT is distributed by Sony. Therefore, Y&R's fate will be largely independent of B&B's.

No, it's not a bad week. That's not it.

It is the trend. It is the poor demos, relentless bad for a very long time, and dipping lower. I'm sure there will be rebounds yet, but B&B (like all soaps) is on a trend. And when it dips below some critical threshold, it becomes unsustainable...at least at a high license fee.

So the real question is how low the Bells can let the US license fee go, and still make the necessary compensatory profit from international sales?

CBS will not cancel B&B, regardless of demos, if advertiser returns are still profitable compared to license costs. That is in the Bell's power to control, as long as the international sales keep the show profitable. Nonetheless, one can imagine that the Bell's profit will be slipping and slipping. I expect, then, to see some paring of the cast, increased hiring of less seasoned actors. Although, in the short term, that does not seem to be the case.

I agree with everything you write except maybe the last.

The critical question is: Can CBS get the show for a buck-and-a-half? (metaphorically speaking). If it cheap, or gets cheaper (because the Bells can absorb the reduced license fees due to international sales) then I see B&B holding on.

Plus B&B is truly one of the oldest audiences. It has such an old audience, I could imagine that selling to the "Centrum" advertisers might start to get more profitable...because it can be marketed as a target show to reach older boomers, etc.

[CSF]

How does B&B have an audience older than Y&R and ATWT. They have to be in the same boat when it comes to the older demographic.

[Sylph]

Carolyin1980, do you have data about which soap has the highest income viewers?

[Carolyn1980]

No, sorry

[Rakesh]

I know right! lol Don't forget about all the revenue B&B make internationally.

[Carolyn1980]

Once again, CBS doesn't care how much money B&B makes internationally......because they don't own the show, and don't share in those revenues. All CBS cares about is the bottom-line: advertiser revenue (which is based on the 18-49 demographic, exclusively), and the cost of the show (which is in the hands of the Bells).

[MarkH]

You are absolutely right. EXCEPT...B&B's ultimately profitability will be a joint function of license fee and advertiser revenue. While the conventional 18-49 formula might disadvantage B&B, there are two possibilities [ a ] they can sell to niche advertisers coveting the older demographic, and [ b ] if the license rate is low enough (due to the international sales offsetting CBS' cost), the show can be profitable even with low 18-49 numbers.

So, while Carolyn1980 is correct that per se CBS only cares about that demographic, more importantly they care about profitability. And B&B, somewhat uniquely, may be able to achieve profitability for CBS without being optimal in the 18-49 demo, for reasons [ a ] and [ b ] delineated above.

[Carolyn1980]

Mark, I thought that went without saying, lol. That's why I included the "cost of the show" as one of the only two things CBS cares about, and the fact that that cost is in the hands of the Bells. If the Bells deem the show profitable enough for them at a very low licensing fee, CBS will continue to buy it.

[MarkH]

Yes, you're right. So the determinant is the Bells. I suspect that they can go pretty low with CBS, and still survive on this one.

Well, that's an interesting question. It is legend that B&B skews old, so I decided to get an estimate. In the table below, I took this week's total viewers and subtracted women 18-49, girls 12-17, and men 18+. The "residual" in the second-from-right column is the leftover viewers. While a few boys under 18 and girls under 12 might be included in the residual numbers. These would be negligible. So, the column on the second-from-right mostly represents older women. What it shows us is that B&B is second only to Y&R in absolute number of these (mostly) older women. More importantly, the right-most column shows is the PROPORTION of all viewers that are older. This is a fascinating number, no? It does show in absolute terms, at least last week, that B&B has highest proportion of older viewers. But its' number is only 1% greater than its next neighbors.

SHOW	TOTAL	18-49	12 TO 17	MEN	RESIDUAL	% of viewers who are older
Y&R	4,874,000.00	1,085,000.00	18,000.00	1,104,000.00	2,667,000.00	55%
B&B	3,369,000.00	691,000.00	17,000.00	718,000.00	1,943,000.00	58%
OLTL	2,560,000.00	848,000.00	27,000.00	411,000.00	1,274,000.00	50%
GH	2,550,000.00	905,000.00	49,000.00	386,000.00	1,210,000.00	47%
DAYS	2,527,000.00	802,000.00	42,000.00	470,000.00	1,213,000.00	48%
AMC	2,518,000.00	793,000.00	8,000.00	461,000.00	1,256,000.00	50%
ATWT	2,394,000.00	530,000.00	17,000.00	488,000.00	1,359,000.00	57%
GL	1,951,000.00	434,000.00	15,000.00	396,000.00	1,106,000.00	57%

[CSF]

Interesting table, MarkH. I wish someone would post the 54-77 demos. The last time I saw them back in 2003, before Port Charles was canceled, they looked something like this:

1. The Young and the Restless

2. As the World Turns

3. Guiding Light

4. The Bold and the Beautiful

5. One Life to Live

6. Days of our Lives

7. All My Children

8. General Hospital

9. Port Charles

10. Passions

I am pretty certain Port Charles and Passions are in the correct order. Y&R was definitely number 1. GL and B&B may have been in reversed spots. I'm pretty sure 5 thru 8 are accurate. I wish I saved those numbers. They were pretty high.

ETA: Now that I think more about it and based on your table, I think B&B was in 3rd place and GL was in 4th. It would make more sense and it would make even more sense that B&B is skewing more older viewers now than Y&R and ATWT. We all know LML chased away many longtime viewers and at the rate CG and JP are going at ATWT, it's no wonder they are bleeding their older audience.

[Carolyn1980]

Don't forget, Mark, that men 18+ includes men 50+, and, indeed, the men 50+ make up most of the men in the men 18+ age group who watch soaps. In other words, there are even more viewers 50+ than your table illustrates.