The Politics Thread

[DRW50]

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[Vee]

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I think Republicans are far too confident re: mail-in/EV, given the fact that we naturally won't be seeing mail-in at the same level as 2020.

[Vee]

This feels like base-covering for something they sense is already in the wind.

 

[DRW50]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/early-voting-good-harris.html

Essentially, they are saying some of the numbers are good but may be a mirage, which may (or may not) also be the case with the Nevada info from @Vee . It's difficult to figure out how much is just Republicans who weren't voting early in 2020 but are now doing so or if Trump really is turning out new voters. The part I'm most hesitant over is whether or not Harris is turning out new voters, or enough to make up those who are lost to the party.

The endless media focus over the [!@#$%^&*] McDonald's photo op and his crudity about Arnold Palmer, how this is a brilliant populist choice, have led him to dominate coverage and to Harris getting coverage more if she reacts to him than on her own campaign. The press is letting Trump run out the clock again just like he did in 2016. 

Edited October 22, 2024 by DRW50

[Vee]

The Nevada rural turnout for the GOP was also very strong on Day 1. Do I think it's the end of the world, no - I think one of the outcomes below is very possible.

 

[DRW50]

Looks like Republicans are also overperforming in places like Georgia. Democrats will catch up to some degree, but I worry the speculation about apathetic turnout in parts of the base will be true. So much of this last month has seemed to demoralize if some polls and early voting results are any indication - I know some keep blaming Harris appearing with the Cheneys, or her not separating from Biden enough, but I feel like it's just been the usual advantages that swing in Trump's favor kicking in again, along with the bigotry at the core of this country.

Edited October 22, 2024 by DRW50

[wonderwoman1951]

wanted to share this exhaustive, passionate analysis i just received from a dear friend — one of the best people i know: 

As we all know, in two weeks a small number of voters in certain parts of the U.S. will finish choosing one of two paths for us all. One is a constructive step into a challenging, even treacherous future. The other is a horror. Finding myself unable to be simply a spectator of this life-and-death sport, I have done some research to help cut through the flood of appeals to donate money to campaigns and/or participate in the massive mobilization of volunteers for Democratic candidates.

MoveOn

If you want to support one entity that covers a huge amount of ground in an election year, I recommend MoveOn, a political organization that has been active since the Clinton impeachment. It allocates its funding to a wide range of organizational activities in national and state races, including offering many kinds of volunteer activities (most done remotely). I’m confident that money given to MoveOn will be well spent.

https://front.moveon.org/

You may be familiar with other such groups worth supporting.

Senate

In the following contested Senate races, the Democratic candidates are currently believed to lead by <1 to 6 percentage points, listed in approximate order of competitiveness, with the closest at the top:

OH      Brown

PA       Casey

WI       Baldwin

MI       Slotkin

NV      Rosen

AZ       Gallego

MD      Alsobrooks

In Montana, Jon Tester is several points behind and probably needs volunteers more than money.

The two most exciting Senate races, though, are longshot candidacies that have become competitive: Colin Allred challenging Ted Cruz in Texas and independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is also making a spirited race against Rick Scott in Florida.

House of Representatives

Identifying House candidates nationally who can most benefit from support at this stage is more complicated. I have drawn from several sources the following somewhat overlapping lists. You may be especially interested in those in your state or vicinity, particularly several in California and New York that may decide the House majority.

Hopium Chronicles

I participate In Zoom meetings led by the leading Democratic strategist and organizer Simon Rosenberg, who uses this website to organize volunteer activities and accept donations to the Harris-Walz campaign, the statewide presidential campaign organizations in North Carolina and Arizona (to try to flip Trump-leaning states) as well as the “blue dot” electoral district of Nebraska, and critical congressional races.

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/

Rosenberg chose 15 House seats that can most readily be flipped from R to D to win a majority. On the website one can donate to all of these candidates collectively or to any of them individually:

Amish Shah (AZ-01)

Kirsten Engel, AZ-06

Adam Gray, CA-13

Rudy Salas, CA-22

George Whitesides, CA-27

Derek Tran (CA-45)

Will Rollins, CA-41

Christina Bohannan (IA-01)

Tony Vargas, NE-02

Sue Altman, NJ-07

Laura Gillen, NY-04

Mondaire Jones, NY-17

Josh Riley, NY-19

Janelle Bynum, OR-5

Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

This is a good group to support. Vargas, Bohannan, Shah, Bynum, and Whitesides are all scientists, engineers, or physicians, along with John Mannion (NY-22), who is not on the Hopium list but is also a competitive challenger.

However, this list includes only challengers, not Democratic incumbents in equally close races.

Council for a Livable World

For decades I have donated to House and Senate candidates through the Council for a Livable World, which supports peaceful resolution of international conflicts and sensible nuclear and defense policies. This organization also provides a convenient way to donate individually to numerous candidates at once.

https://livableworld.org/meet-the-candidates/

A disadvantage of CLW is that its endorsements—based solely on the candidates’ support for its objectives, not on their likelihood of winning—include people who don’t need more help (e.g., Elizabeth Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse). Nonetheless, this year’s CLW-endorsed candidates include most of those in the competitive Senate races identified above and the following in competitive House races (* = incumbent):        

AZ-06 K Engel

CA-09 J Harder*

CA-47 D Min

CO-03 A Frisch

MN-02 A Craig*

NY-04 L Gillen

NY-17 M Jones

NY-22 J Mannion

PA-07  S Wild*

VA-07 E Vindman

WI-03  R Cooke

Flip the States

This website is designed specifically to enable Democrats to get the most results from their political contributions. Rather than take donations, it provides links to candidates’ donation pages.

https://flipthestates.com/races/flip-the-us-house/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tnr_flip-states

For the House, Flip the States ranks the district races by their importance for achieving a Democratic majority. These (taken from a longer list) are rated most important, with "impact ratings" from 98 down to 93 (* = incumbent):

NY-22 J Mannion

CO-8   Y Caraveo*

NM-2  G Vasquez*

IA-3    L Baccam

NY-18 P Ryan*

NY-19 J Riley

CA-13 A Gray

AZ-1   A Shah

NY-17 M Jones

WA-3  M Gluesenkamp Perez*

OR-5   J Bynum

270 to Win

https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/

This informational website (not partisan that I can see) also identifies competitive House races, including toss-ups and some that lean D or R but without a predicted winner. These are a few candidates familiar to me (some from past campaigns) who do not appear on the above lists (* = incumbent):

AK      M Peltola*

ME-2   J Golden*

MT-1   M Tranel

OH-9   M Kaptur*

Edited October 22, 2024 by wonderwoman1951

[DRW50]

Thanks  @wonderwoman1951 .

[Wendy]

Sigh.

With the Ralston post and lower than expected (so far - I know it's early) Dem turnout, I really am starting to have a strong 2016 vibe.

For some reason, I think the US is afraid of a woman POTUS. Kamala Harris is smart and knowledgeable, but so was Hillary Clinton.

As I said before, if I'm wrong, great. But so far...

[Vee]

 

 

[JaneAusten]

Thanks @Vee I was going to post this info, but glad you picked it up.

I want to remind people that Clark County also was delayed in mailing out Mail In voting ballots by other counties in Nevada by about 10 days. Whether this is a factor or not who knows. I have a friend who lives in Vegas with her husband and 2 kids. Her older son wanted to see Obama over the weekend, so they went. On the way they dropped off their mail in ballots, which she indicated arrived just 3 days before, which is unusual. Every voter in Nevada gets a mail in ballot.

I do wonder if the Reid Machine is still in tact , as it was in Nevada, and whether those idiot DSA members who took over the democratic party and were booted out a couple of years later, are having any lasting impact?

[Vee]

I think NV (along with likely a few other states) is just going to be a bit of a rollercoaster for at least a few days. I also suspect a bit of an inverted pattern from 2020 which was an unusual situation - it's natural we wouldn't have as much mail/early vote post-COVID. But it definitely looks a lot better this morning vs. last night. Obsessing over it for two weeks is not sustainable. But I might a little bit!

[Vee]

Makes sense:

 

[Vee]

Another for the @marceline tally.

I can buy that he's decaying, but at the same time he still does stuff like the McDonald's stunt or this barber shop nonsense. How are they comfortable with some of these outings and not others at this point if it's that bad?

[marceline]

Those appearances are completely stage managed. Every "customer" Trump served was a supporter cleared by Secret Service. Same for the barbershop.

At this point these appearances are the equivalent to taking grandpa to the senior center so he can play with friends.