The Politics Thread

[DramatistDreamer]

Time for the more savvy youngins to talk to their tíos, tías, abuelitos and abuelitas.

By the way, the largest groups of Latinos in the U.S. are Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, something that BBC article neglected to mention.

[Vee]

A tale of two cities:

Virtually ever pollster and pundit is regarding the NYT numbers for AZ/GA/NC as a strange outlier vs. all other recent polling, so I am not particularly pressed about it at present. Just means everyone needs to stay vigilant.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Vee

[Wendy]

If it were some GOP-leaning pollster, I'd believe this is an outlier, but this is an A+-ranked outlet.

Still trying to remain hopeful, but a part of me wonders if the electorate is still stuck on misogyny so badly that they would rather have a demented dictator than a woman for POTUS. 

[Vee]

So are many of the others recently cited. I'm calling it an outlier because every reputable pollster and credible poll analyst (including people like Jain and Nate Cohn, and Times analysts themselves) are calling it an outlier. That doesn't mean it's a crank poll, but it is outside the norm of most other state polling out there and most reputable folks are baffled by those results. So as it is, it's not worth me dooming about.

 

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

Edited September 23, 2024 by Vee

[Vee]

 

 

[Vee]

 

[DramatistDreamer]

Just as an aside, the stock market ended up while Truth Social/DJT continues to fall.

[DRW50]

Some other poll (admittedly I think this poll was probably GOP-friendly) out in the last day or two mentioned 7 or 8 states where a sizable amount of Biden 2020 voters have moved to Trump. Most aren't, of course, and some would have moved even if Biden had stayed in, but it did make me wonder how many are just not going to vote for a woman, or a WOC. 

My main fears with the election, beyond the Trump overperformance compared to polling in 2016 and 2020, is how many still don't know or trust Harris and how many still believe Trump is better on immigration and the economy. Beyond those fears, I do think there may be a lot of people who won't give Harris a chance and are just going to become more comfortable making that clear as we get closer to Election Day.

[Vee]

Again, I'd agree with more of that if polling hadn't shown that Harris' personal, individual stats went way up after the debate in terms of knowing and trusting her. But I guess we'll see.

 

[janea4old]

testing 123 difficulty editing my own posts.

Edit,  I have made a separate thread about this in the support forum.
(Link to thread)

 

Edited September 24, 2024 by janea4old

[janea4old]

 

[DramatistDreamer]

Has anyone seen this?

Someone put up the full documentary the other day. I saw the description on social media and opened up a tab with the video, then got too busy to watch. The next thing I knew, the video had disappeared by the time I went back to watch it.
I don’t subscribe to MSNBC, I haven’t subscribed to cable television for over a decade now so, unless there is an upload of the full movie, it is unlikely that I would be able to watch it. Since people in the comments of the trailer are begging for a full upload of the movie, maybe the network might be persuaded.

Please register in order to view this content

 

[DRW50]

It's the polling being so all over the place that makes me uneasy (well, one of the things). Not long ago the Quinnipac state polls showed decent news for Harris, but now the national poll has Trump ahead. I don't have much use for Quinnipac, but they aren't alone in the tightness or slight shift back to Trump. Every time there's a lull in the race, I feel like polls start to slowly shift toward him again. When the polls are so close and Trump is just going around promising everyone everything, with the media cheerleading him (even as they may tut-tut at times), I keep going back to 2016. 

Edited September 25, 2024 by DRW50

[sivad40]

Speaker Pelosi on CNN.

 

 

[DramatistDreamer]

Given what is happening in the rest of the world, I know people are not likely to be paying much attention to what’s been happening in Sri Lanka and it wouldn’t really be your fault if you haven’t been, since the media (especially U.S. media) hasn’t done much reporting on the nation since the protests and Rajapaksa’s exile last year. They just had an election a few days ago. Here’s an update:

https://news.yahoo.com/news/left-leaning-candidate-leads-sri-035801017.html