The Politics Thread

[DRW50]

Chris Christie, who the media constantly tells us is our savior and the future of the "sensible" or "moderate" GOP, isn't sure if he supports ugly, harmful, dangerous brainwash therapy. What a shock. His bigotry is never well hidden, even if the media likes to pretend otherwise.

http://americablog.com/2013/03/chris-christie-ex-gay-therapy-ban.html

[quartermainefan]

Reading that article is funny and I love one of the ways to cure guys of being gay is to man them up and make them play sports. I don't know that the science on that is all that sound, but I am pretty sure if Mr Christie was forced to play some sports himself he might find himself not manning up, but slimming down.

[alphanguy74]

Those boys need different hair and good clothes, they wouldn't look near as goofy.

[DRW50]

I was shocked to read that Kay Hagan, a Democratic senator from North Carolina, announced her support for gay marriage. North Carolina is a state that is trending more socially conservative in elections, and she's up for reelection in 2014.

There seems to have been some big shift in the DLC/Beltway arena recently regarding gay marriage. I know polls are showing more support for gay marriage (around 50-60%, give or take, depending on the wording of the poll), but I still assumed most of the Democrats who supported it would be in liberal areas.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/03/27/kay-hagan-becomes-latest-senator-to-endorse-gay-marriage/

Meanwhile, there's speculation about whether the Supreme Court will strike down DOMA, or whether they will even hear the case at all (or the Prop 8 case). Not holding my breath on these. I think it's way too soon to expect anything good out of this court.

[DRW50]

Scary law on the way in Kansas, one that some worry will lead to quarantining those with HIV/AIDS.

http://fox4kc.com/2013/03/27/proposed-kan-bill-calls-for-hiv-positive-people-to-be-quarantined/

[wingwalker]

I think SCOTUS is going to punt on Prop 8 and dismiss case or issue a very narrow ruling that strikes down Prop 8 but apply only to California. I'd love to be wrong and see them issue a broad ruling that says denying gays right to marry is unconstitutional, but I don't think SCOTUS is ready for that yet.

DOMA, I think SCOTUS will strike it down, but probably not under reasons of equality, but under reasons of states rights.

[DRW50]

Another media darling, and GOP token, Ben Carson, shows his true self. Sadly this type of very open, very virulent bigotry will just improve his standing with the far right.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/03/28/_be_they_gays_be_they_nambla_be_they_people_who_believe_in_beastiality.html

More bigotry, although this from someone who has held onto office solely through pork power, so he can probably say whatever trash he wants.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/03/28/republican-rep-don-young-refers-to-latinos-using-racial-slur/

Edited March 29, 2013 by CarlD2

[DRW50]

More scary/stupid/insane comments from those in power.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/04/gay-marriage-local-republicans.php?ref=fpb

[Marco Dane]

I am the only one surprised that President Obama hasn't said a word about North Korea... Breaking news or Special Report or something.... This is getting very weird....

[Max]

Larry Sabato might not have a perfect record in political predictions like Nate Silver, but he's still among the most accurate in the business. In 2008, he correctly predicted the outcome in all the states except IN and MO (both of which were extremely close). In 2012, he was only wrong about FL (which was also very close) and VA (which wasn't all that close).

 

He runs a great website called The Crystal Ball. Here's an article on where he sees the Democratic Presidential nominating contest at this very early stage. (He'll cover the Republicans next week.)

 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16-part-1-democrats-again-hunger-for-history/

 

I hope this doesn't violate any copyright laws, but I wanted to post a table (in that article) that sums up where each of the likely or potential candidates stand:

 

First Tier
Candidate		Key Advantages	Key Disadvantages
	Hillary Clinton Fmr. Sec. of State	•High national popularity •Woman: chance to make history •Likely to unify party forces if she runs (unlike ‘08)	•Age (69 by Election Day ‘16) •Did not run strong ‘08 campaign •Keeping Bill in check and on the porch
Second Tier
	Joe Biden Vice President	•Vast experience •Next in line? Will Obama back him? •VP bully pulpit	•Age (already 70) •Gaffe machine •Poor pres campaign history
Third Tier
	Andrew Cuomo Governor, NY	•Very popular at home •Impressive policy record already •State/Fed. experience	•Too conventional? •Some liberals unhappy •Another Northeasterner?
	Elizabeth Warren Senator, MA	•Adored by Dem activists •Woman •National ID and fundraising network	•Little crossover appeal •’12 campaign baggage •Another Bay Stater?
Fourth Tier
	Mark Warner Senator, VA	•Strong executive record •Key swing state •Crossover appeal/ bipartisanship theme •Well-financed	•Too moderate? •No national constituency •Not a dynamic speaker
	Kirsten Gillibrand Senator, NY	•Woman •Strong liberal record •NY fundraising base	•Bland persona •Nationally unknown •Past NRA support?
	Martin O’Malley Governor, MD	•Willing and very available •Strong liberal record and policy achievements	•Maryland=small base •Little crossover appeal •Nationally unknown
	Brian Schweitzer Fmr. Governor, MT	•Westerner •Unique populist personality •Very popular Dem in Red state	•Westerner •Unique personality •Too unpredictable?
Wild Card?
	John Hickenlooper Governor, CO	•Swing state •Crossover appeal •Westerner •Gun control backer	•Nationally unknown •Not a dynamic pol •Interest in running?

 

Edited April 16, 2013 by Max

[DRW50]

I lost interest in Sabato after his website went through some changes I didn't care for, but that's an interesting analysis.

I wish that the government would stop trying for gun control. It's not going to happen, and if it does, the legislation will be more toothless than Gabby Hayes. This has to start at a local level. The lobbies are too powerful and gun control proponents have tin ears.

[Max]

If you don't mind, I'm curious as to what those changes were, Carl.

I've never been strongly pro-gun or anti-gun, but the Manchin/Toomey bill seemed like a decent compromise. (Ironically, Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey are both hated by progressives. Manchin is considered a DINO, and progressives have labeled Toomey a far-right loon.) Some gun control measures are long overdue, but I think that serious mental illness--as opposed to guns--is the #1 contributor to massacres like Aurora and Newtown. I believe that the left overreached when they championed the idea of deinstitutionalization (i.e., removing people from psychiatric hospitals because of a belief that they can be rehabilitated) in the 60's and 70's. (Because of the culture that deinstitutionalization caused, it is now so very difficult to hospitalize severely mentally ill people for any great length of time.) But, just as many Republicans are indebted to the NRA, many Democrats similarly fear the ACLU (whose leadership would be outraged to see a material rise in the number of people in psychiatric hospitals).

Aside from Toomey, Republicans John McCain (who has been hated by many progressives since 2008), Susan Collins, and Mark Kirk supported the bill. The four Democrats who opposed it were Max Baucus, Mark Begich, Heidi Heitkamp, and Mark Pryor. For those who are strongly pro-gun control, it would be extremely hypocritical to vote for any of these senators in their re-election bids. (I'm certainly not suggesting that you support their Republican opponents, but I do think liberals should just sit out those elections.) If a liberal chooses to vote for them, I highly suspect it is because of shameful partisanship/loyalty to the Democratic party (and to a Democratic Senate). (And I feel that it is unacceptable to vote for a candidate one objects to just for the sake of a Congressional majority.)

Edited April 17, 2013 by Max

[quartermainefan]

For continuing to elect conservatives who fellate the NRA any time it demands, the country deserves every school shooting it gets. 85% of the country supported improved background checks, but the conservatives just don't care what the country thinks. Then when the next shooting happens we will hear desperate wailing of "why god, why?" and the answer will be, as it ever was and always will be, " because you elected conservatives who whore themselves out to the NRA, that's why"

[DRW50]

Max, Sabato's website used to give reasons for his predictions in House/Senate/Governor races, you could toggle your mouse over the map and see writeups. Last I checked, you can't.

Our worthless media in action, yet again:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/boston-marathon-media-meltdown-90241.html

[Max]

Thanks so much for telling me, Carl. I have only followed Sabato's site for about a year, so I was unaware of that unfortunate change.