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Toups

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DramatistDreamer Grand Master

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People seem to want to dismiss or forget the Comey factor. Repeatedly.

I am not singling out anyone in this thread but in general, I have noticed the panic (though I generally avoid it because I am not on Twitter) but if we’re going to compare, include all the information in making comparisons. That’s all I am saying.

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Vee Grand Master

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I'm not worried about it being like 2016. I believe we're taking it. I have suspected for some time that it will not be close, but now I think it might be even more than that. I think it may end up bigger for the candidate, and I think we have a real shot at a Congressional sweep whereas previously I thought keeping the Senate was slim at best.

Or it may be a nailbiter or a shock horror twist for all of us. Who knows. I'm staying vigilant regardless. But I'm ready to take it to 'em.

Meanwhile, Wasserman seems fed up:

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DRW50 Grand Master

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Apparently, Trump got some free advertising on NBC due to one of his FCC picks pitching a fit over the SNL cameo being so close to the election. Just another reason I wish her campaign had had second thoughts as even a puff piece ended up with churn to "prove" the system is against him. 

I can't remember if it was @Vee who posted this a while back or if I am mixing it up with another article, but even with Tim Alberta being GOP-sympathetic, it did give me insight into the two worlds of the Trump campaign and how his campaign managers have been forced into the old "let Trump be Trump" mentality at his events even as they stick to a more traditional campaign elsewhere. 

(they also try to blame a lot of the ugliness like cats and dogs and MSG on one staffer, which seems convenient)

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/

The news cycle is dominated with distractions about squirrels, raccoons, dogs, cats, garbage, drowning out positive stories from Harris, while his ads that are constantly on stick to much narrower topics - immigration, economy, and insisting Harris is the same as Biden. The same stuff Wasserman (who gave the game away on his views back in 2022) wants him to do at rallies. 

There's also a large amount of transphobia in the ads, of course.

I don't know if the latter moves voters, but the rest is what has kept the election close, and I don't think it's gone away. The visibly decayed Trump of his rallies isn't the man half or more of the country see. They make him their own, whatever they need him to be. It takes so much to change that, and I am not sure this is the year or candidate who will make that happen, if any candidate even could.

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Vee Grand Master

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This is what we're talking about, though. You assume that because these things merely exist that they instantly connect and become hugely relevant, and drown out anything from Dems. That's just not true.

Nobody cares about his 90 second ad tacked onto the end of (I believe) a sport event, though; most don't know it happened. They don't care about his FCC whining. They only cared or knew about the SNL appearance. Nobody outside of the MAGA online fever swamp knows or cares about this damn squirrel either, and that is not drowning Harris out because that story is not dominating mainstream news. Nor are many other items of their random weirdness. What is dominating right now is the Selzer poll, ongoing Puerto Rico fallout, new blue momentum and more bad choices by Trump that are driving more women to the polls. People see the Trump you say they don't and more than half are tired of him. At least that's what I'm seeing, and I keep a pretty broad eye.

In any event: Here is a very good interview with Bill Clinton from CNN.

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DRW50 Grand Master

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There are few of us who pay attention to most of this to begin with, but the biggest difference is a lot of the ugly moments that get coverage end up being tied to simpler talking points for voters - the dogs and cats stuff about immigration, this nonsense about squirrels as government overreach in blue states, the FCC complaint about the media being against him, etc. One of the reasons the Puerto Rico stuff may have hurt Trump is because it wasn't tied to any of those themes a lot of voters seem to (if polls are any indication) be focused on this year. 

I think we see that Trump, but when people are dressing up in garbage bags at his behest, I am never sure if we are in the minority. 

I guess we'll know in a few days.

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Vee Grand Master

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But none of the dogs and cats stuff helped him. The squirrel (it's so idiotic I even have to type this) has not connected with mainstream media nor will it help him. The FCC whining has not helped him and almost no one has seen his response ad. That's the whole point. We can't automatically assume everything he does is a mainstream success story when both past performance and current events prove it is not.

Meanwhile, this is amazing:

 

This is possibly more insane. Silver explains how he's been skewing his forecast:

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