The Politics Thread

 

15 hours ago, DramatistDreamer said:

Christopher Bouzy cbouzy

This is my favorite ad this cycle.

04:56 AM - Oct 12, 2024

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Christopher Bouzy cbouzy

This is my favorite ad this cycle.

04:56 AM - Oct 12, 2024

34

180

427

data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==

This is the same guy that keeps on insisting that Florida is somehow in play for some reason. I'll believe that when both the marijuana and abortion amendments actually pass and go into effect, (and I don't really see either ever seeing the light of day, especially the abortion amendment since Ron DeSantis is more than likely going to block it and prevent it from ever fully going into effect just to be utterly petty and to screw over the voters that actually want the ban to be overturned). I would love to be pleasantly surprised because I actually think the six week ban in Florida is asinine, stupid and dangerous but like I said, I'm not really getting my hopes up. Ron has such a strong chokehold on the state that it's not even funny. 

It's just sad that I live in a state that's been a lock for the Republicans since dinosaurs roamed the earth.

an interesting take on polling from ezra klein @ the ny times. 

free link

ezra klein on polls 

3 hours ago, MissPhoenixGirl92 said:

This is the same guy that keeps on insisting that Florida is somehow in play for some reason. I'll believe that when both the marijuana and abortion amendments actually pass and go into effect, (and I don't really see either ever seeing the light of day, especially the abortion amendment since Ron DeSantis is more than likely going to block it and prevent it from ever fully going into effect just to be utterly petty and to screw over the voters that actually want the ban to be overturned). I would love to be pleasantly surprised because I actually think the six week ban in Florida is asinine, stupid and dangerous but like I said, I'm not really getting my hopes up. Ron has such a strong chokehold on the state that it's not even funny. 

If Ohio can pass a repro rights amendment and recreational cannabis, Florida can too. You're actually in better shape than we were. Ohio GOP tried twice to screw over voters by scheduling special elections. When I voted this week I heard another poll worker tell a voter, "Once you're done, you don't have to come back until next year." So much of the energy in my state is voters basically saying "We said what we said."

Edited October 13, 20241 yr by marceline

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/dead-heat-trump-pulls-even-harris-nbc-news-poll-rcna174201

It's just one poll but it also feels like what seemed inevitable to me with negative opinion of Harris starting to build and the same younger voters who are so apathetic or so often end up believing the lies about Democrats falling into line. I'm just astonished, even as I shouldn't be, at how Trump's approval numbers are so high even as he is so decrepit and openly bigoted. Yes, it is just one poll, or a few polls, but this and some of the early voting results so far, etc. seem to suggest how much he has brought out the worst of this country's attitudes and instincts to shape his rotted insides. 

I'm just saying....

 

Edited October 13, 20241 yr by marceline

I mean, overall the polls really haven't moved (even the NBC poll, I believe, cites that). The media is just bored and hopeful for a long night/Trump win, and people are tired and stressed.

3 hours ago, marceline said:

I'm just saying....

 

Saying the same thing!

 

Bill campaigning in GA for Kamila.

 

 

 

Wow. These are allegedly GOP internals.

 

And no, I don't think this leak or these numbers are some masterful GOP psy-op to misdirect Dems. They haven't been that smart in over a decade. If these are legit (and they appear to be, as Politico has picked them up) I am reminded of 2022 all the more.

Edited October 14, 20241 yr by Vee

Another endorsement for Kamala Harris/Tim Walz. This time, it's Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad fame:

 

 

Thanks for the internals. I don't believe those Michigan Senate numbers, as Gary Peters nearly lost in 2020 and this election will likely be as close or closer than that one, even if Elissa Slotkin seems to be an overperformer. I am also hoping that the Wisconsin Senate numbers are wrong as I don't really get why they would be so close, unless it is due to the increasing homophobia and transphobia in this country, or some voters have a weird daddy fixation on Eric Hovde and his pornstache. I think Cruz will win in Texas, probably by 3-4 points, although I hope he loses as he's just a smarmy shitstain constantly begging for love. PA will likely be very close but unless Trump has a big night (which sadly seems more and more likely), I think Casey will pull it out.

The Ohio internal for Trump is interesting. If that is accurate, slimy Bernie Moreno (who now seems to be going around saying he's been subject to racist attacks - how ironic) is likely hosed. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes may also hold onto their Congressional seats.

Trump is going to win Iowa but if he doesn't have as big a blowout there as he did in 2020 Democrats might manage to get one of those Congressional seats back. The last polling for him, I think around the last debate, wasn't great by his 2020 standards but he seems to have made a real comeback since then.

Edited October 14, 20241 yr by DRW50