The Decline of Soap Operas

[Khan]

Okay. Let's just say, for the moment, CBS stands firm, and Y&R and B&B are forced off the network. If Frons made a sweet enough deal, and Y&R and B&B jumped ship to ABC, you know what'll happen? That's right: AMC and OLTL would be kaput. Frons might try incorporating some of AMC and/or OLTL's more popular actors into the "new" shows to hold onto whatever little audience is still there, but the Y&R/B&B fans would resent it, and so would the AMC/OLTL fans. And let's not forget the track record for soaps that switch networks...which is miserable, to say the least. (GL did it, but that was radio.)

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but Lord, they'd have to be really "simple" to think they could pull it off masterfully.

[All My Shadows]

Hmm. If Y&R/B&B went to ABC, I wonder how they'd schedule that a Y&R/B&B/GH lineup. Would they just keep the CBS transplants as is and push GH into OLTL's old slot? Or push the CBS shows down into the space that the second half of AMC and OLTL currently occupy?

[Khan]

More than likely, Frons would expand "The View" to 90 minutes (if you can imagine that, lol); position Y&R after "The View"; B&B after Y&R; and leave GH where it is currently. But that's just speculation.

[bellcurve]

I don't think B&B would make the jump with Y&R, but I see ABC doing everything it can to keep Y&R in the same timeslot it occupies around the country and most affiliates following suit.

Y&R precedes the ABC lineup in many midwestern affiliates at the noon/11CST hour anyway. I could see ABC and it's affiliates moving their newscasts to the noon hour or shortening them a half hour to accomodate Y&R's arrival. The View would be Y&R's lead-in for many of those affiliates.

The best scenario would be either:

11:VIEW

NOON: Y&R

1: LOCAL

1:30: AMC

2: OLTL

3:GH

Or

1: Y&R

2: OLTL

3:GH

Damn, I sound like RuAsRuAs or whatever the hell that poster's name was. LOL.

[Supersage]

One has no further to look than how CBS treated the Daytime Emmys. With that program's ratings headed the same way as soaps in general, CBS (primetime OR daytime) wasn't willing to pay the fee for that show. And despite what Bloom continues to say, her interest is in making money, which ATWT and GL barely do for CBS (I'm specifically speaking about what CBS makes, versus what PGP makes). Bloom is still looking for the perfect combination for a new talk fest (a la The View). One thing I can guarantee you is that Bloom will try cutting GL's fees again this summer, even though every indication is the show will reach it's intended target rating of 1.8 or 1.9.

Why don't they figure in more DVR and VCR recordings? Chances are viewers fast forward the ads in these programs and would not accurately reflect how many people actually watch the ads. One more reason we will see more product placements on ATWT and GL (and maybe even the Bell soaps). Ironic, isn't it, that soaps have reverted back to the way products were advertised in the beginning of the television era?

The best managed, most financially secure soaps are Y&R and B&B. Surprisingly, the next soap that this can be said of is GL. The show has pared down it's costs over the past few years and is in fairly good financial shape to continue turning a profit for PGP. Of course, if CBS lowers the show's fee again, that would drop as well. The ABC soaps are strong, but not as strong as you would think. Look for the ABC soaps to have a wave of actors being released later this year as the paycuts most recently took won't be enough. As difficult as it is seeing two of Days' top actors leaving, it is probably for the betterment of that show. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more top names leaving that show this year.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

It's too bad local news is scheduled on most affiliates at 12 noon, because Y&R would be a perfect addition to the ABC schedule at that time, especially coming on after The View in many major markets. Y&R would also serve as a nice lead-in for the rest of the ABC soaps.

It's also too bad that ABC lets most of its major affiliates control its 4 PM hour, because Y&R would fit in quite nice there. In fact, Y&R attacks some of its biggest numbers in the South by airing at 4 PM on a lot of CBS affiliates.

In NYC, the ABC affiliate here airs Oprah at 4PM, if she's in fact leaving syndication next season, I can see ABC trying to fill that affiliate void with something that would be a sure success. How do affiliates replace something like Oprah? A successful soap like Y&R might help.

But, with the move to digital soon, I expect a lot of older viewers to tune out of soaps and game shows. Y&R has a HUGE older audience, and I doubt that audience would follow it to ABC. Y&R does well in 18-49 and 18-34, which all ABC really cares about, but would those younger viewers necessarily switch networks too?

Also, would Y&R's old-fashion soap approach fit in with the more contemporary ABC approach?

[bellcurve]

Some ABC soap fans ARE Y&R fans. I know alot of ABC fans who start their day with Y&R at Noon/11CST. I think part of why Y&R does so well on SOAPnet and in network television is how easily accessible it is to fans of other network soaps. Lots of people start their soap watching blocks with Y&R, especially when Y&R airs in that Post-Price is Right timeslot.

[All My Shadows]

How would the digital change cause older viewers to tune out of soaps and game shows? I'm not doubting you at all, I just don't see the connection. Enlighten me .

But I will say that younger viewers would most likely switch networks for sure, if they don't just watch it on SOAPnet anyway.

Oh my God, I just noticed something. I never thought it would happen, but it has. We're discussing the cancellation of Y&R. Creep. E.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Oh, I just expect many of the older households haven't heard about the digital switch or have the incentive to go out and buy a converter box. I suspect it would be fairly easier for the younger demographics, who have a better chance of already owning a HDTV or converter box.

[Khan]

Don't you get it? Oldsters believe high definition is a bitch. ;-)

Not anymore, it isn't. These days, anything is possible.

I believe the name you're thinking of is "Veronica Sandbridge"?

[All My Shadows]

But you don't need to have an HDTV or convo box, though, right? As long as you have a form of cable, you're fine. At least, when my local FOX station did a digital "test," they said that if you still saw programming, you'd be fine, and I still saw Judge Mathis being an [!@#$%^&*].

The fact that it isn't creepy is creepy! It's like the Twilight Zone has come to the daytime industry.

[DaytimeFan]

Go with me on this one, but the very same company that would screw with Y&R and B&B on network daytime is the very same company that would serve as its sydicator. CBS Television Distribution is the syndicator of Judge Judy and The Oprah Winfrey Show. Oprah's move to her OWN network in 2011 would be the perfect moment for Y&R and B&B to jump ship. Oprah's salary is $225 million a year, that could EASILY cover both Y&R and B&B. Y&R's ratings are point behind Oprah's and B&B's would beat a score of shows, including Ellen.

The gaping holes in CBS's schedule would then be filled by the syndicated episodes of Y&R and B&B. Thus, the affiliates would get to keep Y&R and B&B on the air while CBS Daytime would no longer have any responsibility/control. Also, the Bells do have their own syndication company (it handles B&B's overseas distribution) called BBL Distribution (Bill, Brad, Lauralee).

And I don't believe Y&R and B&B are a package deal. I KNOW they are. Follow the money, follow the control. Where one goes the other will follow.

[Y&RWorldTurner]

If anyone is involved with Y&R going into syndication, it would have to be Sony. And Sony DOES have a syndication arm.

[Khan]

"Say, what if Y&R and B&B end up on the CW! :-D"

Now, do you see how silly this all is, lol?

[Y&RWorldTurner]

Well, both shows do better in daytime than most CW shows do in primetime. LOL!