June 9-13, 2008

[evermore]

I'm suprised that OLTL went down; the storylines were good even before the Wednesday returns. I wonder how much further OLTL would have dropped without Tina and Marty

I am guessing the show may drop even further next week because neither return story has been very compelling this week. I'll keep watching no matter what, but I don't know if a viewer who'd never seen the show would be interested in the 2 return stories enough to keep watching

[ZaraB]

Heavy is relative - Tina wasn't nearly as promoted as Sarah Brown or Rebecca Budig (thank goodness!). However, the returns of Marty and Tina aren't really about either character, despite RC's efforts. Tina is valuable (to TPTB) not as Viki's and Todd's wacky sister, but because she can pump life and interest into the bland Sarah character. Marty is there to prop the growing conflict between Todd and John, and to prop Cole/Starr and the offspring story. ABC is hedging any bets by not making longterm commitments to either character.

[Errol]

ABC PRESS RELEASE

June 19, 2008

Fringe Ratings Report: ABC Daytime Programming

Week of June 9, 2008

ABC Scores its Fifth Consecutive Win as

Daytime’s No. 1 Network in Women 18-49

For the 23rd Straight Week, “The View” Ranks Among Daytime’s Top 5 Most-Watched Programs in Total Viewers and Also Scores Elite 5 Status in Women 18-34

For the 10th Week Running, ABC Owns 3 of Daytime’s Top 5 Programs

in Target Young Women 18-34 and Women 18-49 Demos

A Top 5 Player in Key Young Women, “One Life to Live” Tops Time Period Rival CBS’ “As the World Turns” by a Hefty 64% in Women 18-34 and by 33% in Women 18-49

Delivering Another Convincing Win Over Time Period Rival CBS’ “Guiding Light,” “General Hospital’s” Margin of Victory This Week Stands at 139% in Women 18-34,

62% in Women 18-49 and 22% in Total Viewers

ABC Daytime

* ABC clinched its 5th consecutive victory as Daytime’s No. 1 network in Women 18-49 (No. 1T - 1.3 rating/879,000).

* “The View” placed among Daytime’s elite 5 in Total Viewers for the 23rd straight week (No. 4 - 3.38 million), and also scored a Top 5 finish in Women 18-34 (No. 4 – 0.9 rating/294,000).

* In Women 18-49, for the 10th week running, ABC owned 3 of Daytime’s Top 5 programs: “General Hospital” (No. 2, 1.5 rating/973,000), “One Life to Live” (No. 3T, 1.3 rating/880,000) and “All My Children” (No. 3T, 1.3 rating/841,000).

* In Women 18-34, ABC aired 3 of Daytime’s Top 3 programs for the 10th consecutive week: “General Hospital” (No. 2T, 1.0 rating/344,000), “The View” (No. 4, 0.9 rating/294,000) and “One Life to Live” (No. 5, 0.8 rating/283,000).

* A Top 5 player in target young Women, “One Life to Live” topped time period competitor CBS’ “As the World Turns” by a dominating 64% in Women 18-34 (283,000 vs. 173,000) and by 33% in Women 18-49 (880,000 vs. 660,000).

* Delivering another convincing win in Daytime’s 3 o’clock hour, “General Hospital” defeated CBS’ “Guiding Light” by a considerable 139% in Women 18-34 (344,000 vs. 144,000), by 62% in Women 18-49 (973,000 vs. 600,000) and by 22% in Total Viewers (2.79 million vs. 2.28 million).

Following are the Daytime Lineup averages, plus Top 5 Programs Ranks – Week of June 9, 2008:

Daytime Rank: Total Viewers Women 18-49 (Rtg/000s)

No. 1 CBS 3.51 million No. 1 ABC 1.3/879,000

No. 2 ABC 2.84 million No. 1 NBC 1.3/832,000

No. 3 NBC 2.55 million No. 3 CBS 1.1/755,000

Top 5 Daytime Programs in Women 18-49 (rank based on rating)

Program Net Rtg/000s

The Young & the Restless CBS 1.6/1.06 million

General Hospital ABC 1.5/973,000

One Life to Live ABC 1.3/880,000

All My Children ABC 1.3/841,000

Days of Our Lives CBS 1.3/832,000

Source: NTI, Live + Same Day (Current Week: 6/9-6/13/08. All ranks are based on rating unless otherwise noted.)

[NYC123]

Ouch AMC fell.

ATWT deserves these low numbers. This show is a hot MESS! GL also deserves these numbers. Like I said last week P&G soaps are in deep Sh!t.

[MarkH]

These figures tell the real story. All soaps are down across the board. That's the general trend, and shows where the industry is heading...and it has nothing to do with week-by-week promotion.

The other interesting story is that the AVERAGE one-year decline is greatest for CBS soaps (esp. flagship Y&R). That tells the other big story...CBS is in free fall.

Put these together, and you get the big picture. These little weekly blips in response to promotion etc...we really can disregard them :-).

Indeed, the enduring message that keeps on being clear is that (a) returning big name stars, or ( hiring big name stars from other shows or © short term stunt casting does NOTHING for ratings. Usually, it doesn't even manifest in a brief one-week blip. BUT, if it does, the blip is invariably small, and does NOTHING to stem the average downward trend.

Look at it this way...across all soaps, the one-year decline has been about .3 or so.

Let's assume that is a linear function, and constant across all soaps (I know these are big assumptions, but play with me). Where does that bring us?

While we're at it, let's make one other TINY little assumption: Soaps are automatically cancelled when they reach a rating of 1.0 or lower.

The first graphic shows the resulting table.

The second graphic shows the resulting figure.

This flawed projection says that we lose GL in 2010 (i.e., this last renewal was its last). It says 2011 is the year of hemmorhage and bloodshed, with Days, OLTL, AMC, and ATWT all leaving us. By the way, that's about right (maybe a year late) given recent contract extensions for Days and ATWT. It says both shows will get one last renewal. Finally, the mighty tumble. We lose GH in 2012, B&B in 2013. Y&R hangs on all the way to 2016.

Of course, I know this is nonsense. Decline is actually FASTER than linear right now. Rank orders shift weekly. The 0.3 loss per year is too global. Still, for me, this kind of figure clearly illustrates inevitability. I'm probably off by a year or so here or there. But basically, this is my anticipated future. I'd love to be proven wrong.

[Soapsuds]

Well all shows dropped heavily in women 18-49. ATWT lost 50,000 viewers in that category. OLTL dropped -.2 from last week in that category as well. Changes need to made now at ATWT.

[Ridge]

There is really no need to make excuses for ratings decline, as always ratings are unpredictable , though it is clear you may see big ratings dips when fans are unhappy, as of late it does not work the other way around. It is pointless to try and rationale, especially when there is just so much to enjoy about the show right now!

[arcibaldo]

future on soap will be on line with site example cbs.com

[Errol]

Personally, the Nielsen system is beyond outdated. It has never shown a clear picture as to what is popular and what is not, especially how popular one program is over another.

[MarkH]

Testing out this multi-quote feature Sylph taught us...

I agree. Following these weekly vagaries will just make us nuts...when the truth is that the variability is less important than the general decline trend.

I think you're right. There are flaws. Cbs.com, for example, only lets you stream (so I can't take it with me to the gym, when I get my butt in there).

But when radio soaps moved to TV, few survived. The genre was re-invented for TV. I think that's where we're headed with soaps. Few or none of the TV soaps will migrate to the new media. Instead, new soaps (e.g., Eden Riegel's or whatever) will exist in the new media.

I totally agree with you, but it is the best we have. ALSO, I would say, the unreliability of Neilsen makes the WEEK TO WEEK changes sort of "irrelevant". The ups and downs we see may have more to do with measurement error than true trends.

On the other hand, studying the year-by-year changes in average ratings...I'd argue that is A LOT more meaningful. And you might have seen where I stand on what that means :-).

[Sylph]

Death clothed in black robe with a hood carrying a scythe has come to daytime.

[MarkH]

You are dramatic. You should write for soaps :-).

[Sylph]

But haven't I just written a total cliche?

[MarkH]

That's right!!! We never see those on daytime. My bad.

How 'bout them ratings :-).

[Carolyn1980]

Based on the laws of statistics (and random sampling) though, they should be pretty accurate. Also, they change the sample every year (moving Nielsen boxes from one household to another), yet there isn't really a drastic shift in the rankings of shows when this happens. If they weren't very accurate, I would expect a bigger shift every year when the sample changes.