DRW50

Republicans are claiming they will win Arizona by 10-30K. Hopefully that isn't the case, although they seemed to be right yesterday about GA (not done yet I know), NC and FL, so I can't write them off, much as I want to...

That's great @Faulkner. It's a lovely flag. Enraging. DeJoy should be locked up.

I hope so. I'm very frightened for what will happen to this country without another stimulus. Anyway...

McConnell is already well-compensated and has no reason to work with Democrats on anything IMO, but yes, hopefully they will be able to stop Graham from basically sucking up endless media oxygen with fruitless investigations against Biden and his son. Maybe for once his never-ending need for validation and love will find another outlet with his "daddy" leaving office (if he goes). It looks like Gary Peters is going to hold on, barring a shift, so that's good news at least. He was always the danger spot (poor Doug Jones had no chance). Off topic, but while I have issues with Ilhan Omar (mainly due to her apparent grifting) I do have to give her some credit for the MN victory. She had people going out campaigning in person even when the official campaign word was not to do so. That probably added a few points at least.

+17 and +11 were always ludicrous. The main problem is that so many polls, everywhere, showed much tighter races up and down the ballot. This is the third straight election to have polls that were off. I think that this county no longer has enough trust to be honest with pollsters. I also think that in Trump's case, while the "shy Trump" voter is overblown (many are loud and virulent in their support), there are many people who find him repulsive but still vote for him because of religious reasons, or taxes, or racism. They wouldn't admit this. The other problem is that we see Democrats still don't have a proper national strategy to be able to have a dominant bulwark like the GOP does. The losses in the House make that clear. And I don't know what they can do, as the GOP has the institutions, along with the easy appeal of racism and bigotry, on their side. Democrats, if Biden wins, were able to cobble together a patchwork of voters who may not be there for anyone else, or against anyone else but Trump, especially if Hispanic voters continue to move away from the party. Part of the losses are down to people buying McConnell's lies and spin about the stimulus (and good luck getting one of those now, you dumbasses out there), but there is also just a lack of strength and solid planning through the leadership, especially on the Senate side. There's also the usual media games (the Playbook in Politico was reporting on news this morning and showed a few headlines that were clearly salivating over Trump's strength and showing Democrats what's what, etc.). As long as Democrats do not have more media say in this country, we will continue to see the GOP have an advantage on every level.

I'm interested in seeing if Maree talks about the circumstances of her exit.

It's probably going to end up being closer to 5 or 6 losses, or more, but yes, they will still keep the House. I'm just glad for 2018 as that may end up being all we have.

The Democrats had enough padding to probably keep the House, although projections of gaining up to a dozen seats from some quarters were clearly off. I think people really underestimated how much the rural vote and how much red state turnout would help the GOP. It's sad because some of those who lost, like Joe Cunningham or Kendra Horn, were very qualified and genuinely cared about the people in their districts. And there are probably still a few more losses to come. As for Georgia, Brian Kemp will probably steal it, but I'm surprised it's that close. I am also a little surprised at how much Ossoff tends to underperform (although he isn't entirely out). I wonder how much may be down to anti-Semitism.

If anyone ever wants the real scoop on Nevada, which got a lot of handwringing from various pundits and thinkpiece types in recent months, you'll usually get it from Jon Ralston. The concerns about the Hispanic vote are valid, short and long-term, in many states, but for now it seems like the coalition Harry Reid spent so many years building has held up. Speaking of the Hispanic vote, I saw this from Matthew Dowd (not a fan of the man, but he does know how this works):

I think it's important to have some hope but I feel like some people got too caught up in romanticism and trying to send a message when it often leads to a lot of hubris. I'm glad that Biden's campaign never really did this - win or lose I think they mostly focused on the right places. I know one could argue if they had done more in Texas and with the Hispanic vote they would have won, but I think it was just too much of a reach. In terms of the Senate, I don't think people were wrong to try to expand the map and to push Republicans - it probably helped keep Colorado and Arizona flipping and also likely helped Gary Peters (if he wins) - but I think hopes got so high for romanticism and turning the page on a broken country that does not even know what page it wants to turn to, and that meant a lot of despair which may hurt us in these coming weeks, in the Georgia runoff(s) or in further waiting out of the Presidential results. I also wonder if some in the party took their eye off the ball with the House, based on some of the losses in Florida and in rural districts, but maybe those were always unavoidable given the results this year.

Congrats @Juliajmson NE-02. I know it was a lot of hard work for little credit.

It's the choice between something and nothing. If Biden wins, there's a big risk of the public blaming him and House Democrats and giving the GOP a big 2022 comeback, but the alternative is too numbing to be able to stomach. I never really thought Democrats could take the Senate but I wish I hadn't let myself fall for the hype at all as I just ended up feeling let down.

Trump wasted a lot of time and money in Minnesota, which was a real mirage. If he loses (big if), that will be one of the reasons why.

I see that a number of Democrats are losing their seats tonight, one being Donna Shalala. I don't think that the people Rose Twitter attacks deserve the vitriol they get, but my goodness, Shalala was a horrible, horrible candidate who epitomizes the "it's my turn" type of politics that have so often crippled the Democratic Party. She should have retired after all her stock scandals, even if I'm not sure anyone could have won in Miami-Dade this year.

@Vee this captures your thoughts, although I think yours are a little more on the money.

He did deliver what is probably my all time favorite Dark Shadows line. "I saw your sister Sarah today." <dramatic music and zoom in on Barnabas as he tries not to freak out>

I can't help thinking about some of the posters who were here with us in 2016 through that election and were gone during or not long after. It's been such a long time. I am just glad some of you have stayed here and helped keep me going. I truly appreciate you and your kindnesses.

In-between endless, endless carrying on about his [&#33;@#&#036;%^&amp;*] model, Nate Cohn has reported odd results in NC. Probably won't make up the difference, but you never know.

Regarding Steve Kornacki, I think he's very cute and attractive, I like the cute nerd type, but I tend to tune out anything cable news analysts say because they need the money and the attention - they all need more Trump and they don't really bother to hide it. It's also a lot of fun for them personally, the games and the horse races. Trump is exciting to them. The last 4 years have been exciting nonstop. They don't want to let that go.

Cawthorn is a real [&#33;@#&#036;%^&amp;*]. Among many, many other issues, his campaign people attacked his opponent for wanting to ruin white men. It's sad that this is what wins elections in 2020, and terrifying to wonder what the next extreme will be.

I think a lot of this is down to a certain need for narratives in the press and then seeping down into the public discourse. Tim Alberta spent an eternity tooting around the country writing verbose thinkpieces that ultimately said a lot of nothing and you could tell it was just pining for relevance. This is the same posturing that helped to blind people to so many bad trends in elections like 2000 and 2016. One of the things about Obama was how clear-eyed he was - he had no real sentimentality or blinders in terms of his campaigns and the people working for him didn't either. I wish he wasn't the exception in terms of Democratic nominees over the last few decades.

Ridiculous.

Ugh.

The way the Senate is set up makes it very hard for Democrats to win. This is the third election in a row with bad polling. And what really pisses me off is that yet again we have pollsters or analysts who are hyped like Nate Cohn or Silver spending more time saying they can't tell you what is happening or why they are wrong than about the results. It's time for polling to be more devalued in this country. It hurts to see people who trusted in these polls feel betrayed and stunned all over again. For people with mental health struggles this is going to really be an extra kick in the stomach.

A lot of people like Dave Wasserman warned that ED voting would be for Trump. I think many just hoped, similar to 2016, that Trump being so repulsive to them personally meant that others agreed. (I say that as someone who despises him).