U.S. Supreme agrees to hear the two same-sex marriage cases

[Ann_SS]

I cannot believe that no one started this thread on this topic already. I am confident that the Court will vote to support gay marriage in both cases, but maybe allow states that oppose it some wriggle room.

[DRW50]

Hmm. I'm not too thrilled with the timing. The vote is likely going to hinge on Anthony Kennedy, and while he is relatively moderate on this issue, and might go along with the "let the states decide" voice, I just don't know.

[juppiter]

I expect DOMA to be struck down which would definitely be a victory.

But I do not expect gay marriage to be expanded to all states.

Hopefully Scalia just dies tomorrow tho. Yeah that's mean and I would feel for his family but he needs to go.

[wingwalker]

I'm not surprised by them taking up DOMA. When you have a Federal Law being struck down by lower courts, that falls squarely in the middle of the job of the SCOTUS. The DOMA case seems the most straight forward. Overturning it puts the power back to the states and says the Federal Gov't must recognize what the states decide, which is how marriage laws has always worked since the country began. Kennedy SHOULD be a slam dunk 5th vote, being a supporter of gay rights and states rights, but as we saw with ObamaCare ruling, SCOTUS surprised us with Roberts being the 5th vote not Kennedy. That could be the case again. I think Roberts is very much in play as well. (Also to a much lesser extent, Alito is to, he sometimes has a libertarian streak and most libertarians would strike it down on grounds gov't shouldn't be involved in the marriage business at all).

Prop 8 case, I have no idea. I honestly thought court would refuse to hear the case, which would have made Gay Marriage legal in Cali and that be the end of it. With SCOTUS taking up the case, it can range from them upholding Prop 8, to a narrow ruling that allows gay marriage in Cali only, to a broad ruling that makes gay marriage law of the land in all states. I'm included to believe the SCOTUS won't do the last I listed. While I believe SCOTUS knows that Gay Marriage will someday be the law of the land and that ruling will come from them some day, this day isn't the time. When SCOTUS ruled that states must allow interracial marriage, only 16 states still banned it. Currently over 30 ban gay marriage do, even though overall support has hit 50%. I can see them waiting 5-10 years and for more states to approve it on their own.

[Ann_SS]

Yes, I definitely see the majority voting to strike down DOMA. I really hope that the majority SCOTUS will want to be ahead on gay marriage and overturn Prop 8, but I suspect they will try to give the states a way out. Kennedy has shown that he is very supportive of gay rights so I expect him to be the swing vote. You might be right about Roberts. His vote for the Affordable Care Act shows that he cares how his court will be judged in the future. He knows that history never looks kindly upon the courts that voted against civil rights. Decisions such as Dred Scott vs. Sanford and Plessy vs. Ferguson are shameful documents.