August 4-8 2008

[miajere]

I think this analysis only works if the person doing it doesn't regularly watch the show. They are less colored by the nostalgia, or character development, and judge a show based off daily quality- acting, directing, writing.

[Jess]

I must say the Marceline Axiom is one of the best I've heard! Nostalaigia is huring soaps. And I adore Fluffy. LOL.

[Sylph]

Mark, do you believe if all the other soaps die, at least B&B and Y&R will survive in some way? Maybe they'll cut Y&R to half an hour and change the time-slot or something? Given that Y&R has the best, albeit awful ratings and that B&B has a huge following abroad...

[MarkH]

I think they will be the last to go, but they will go. On both the production and ad side, half hours are less profitable than hours.

Y&R is shrinking here too, and doesn't have the deep international sales. I have to kiss my "second hometown goodbye"...I'm pretending it will be in 2016.

[cct]

I must have missed the magic 2016 number...why is it everyone thinks the last soap (most likely Y&R) will go in 2016? I hear this all over. Is it because we're thinking one-soap-a-year, and there are eight soaps left?

[MarkH]

Kind of.

The formula assumes a 0.2 decline in HH per year, and a cancellation once the show hits 1.0 HH.

Doing the math, if you average Y&R at 4.0 or 3.8 or 3.6 (which is what it had been), you get there by 2016 or thereabouts.

It is very crude and too simple minded...everything from the rate to the cancellation threshhold is subjective.

But, the more simple minded way of thinking about it is that within the next decade none of the shows, under the current funding model, can be viable and (assuming it holds on to its strongest postion), Y&R will be the last to go. B&B may live longer than it should if international sales stay strong.

[marceline]

Wasn't it sooner? For some reason I thought that 2012 was the "event horizon" for soap death.

[margie619]

How does GL stay on the air?

[MarkH]

As long as you both realize what follows is speculative fiction, okay? I don't want anyone panicking about the death of their show... This could be 100% wrong. It is based on a steady rate of decline, common for all shows, from their current ranks...and assumes 1.0 gets you cancelled. This could all be wrong.

[TMOTVSoaps]

You guys answered a good question if I watch all 8 soaps. To be honest with you guys this is how I do it. I do watch all 8 soaps, but I don't watch all 8 on a daily basis. I try to watch the ones that are not interesting to me at that time at least once a week so that I know what's going on. Right now I watch all 4 CBS soaps on a daily basis through the help of DVR. I watch GH with my sister and friends through DVR too. AMC, OLTL, and DOOL are the only ones that I watch a couple of times during the week.

When you're doing analysis I think you have to watch 8, but if its for ratings you don't have to b/c you can simply read them here. Thank you guys for asking and reading them as its something I hope I can do on a weekly basis when I have the time.

I've got a feeling soaps will still be around in 2016, the reason why is I get the feeling the networks don't want to cancel their longtime running soaps. GL is about to make it to 100 years in 2037. Also NBC was the closest to canceling DOOL and its still around through 2010. The worst case for soaps would be that they'll move to cable like SoapNet or something.

[Contessa Donatella]

Michael Kape used to do amazing ratings analysis every week as a soap journalist who could be objective while also being a fan. I miss him & Joanna Koons & their partner & have since the day their mag was bought out of business. Of course, they're not the only people I miss in soap journalism, but he was always so good at ratings analysis. And, it's something that some soap fans always want & no mags in ages have given to them.

[Contessa Donatella]

But, that doesn't factor in the fact that CBS gets nothing out of those international sales, right?

And, yes, I know up-front you gave some disclaimers.

Oh, and, ... I have long thought that Y&R would be the last to go, just because, well, it's Y&R. But, more & more now, is it Y&R? Instead isn't it just the last soap to get sick soap syndrome but to have accelerated symptoms? And, now, Sony is an X factor, since there certainly won't be a DAYS left at the very end.

I've never thought that B&B would be left at the very end.

[Contessa Donatella]

I thought they only had 2009 by current contract, 2 years, 2007-2009.

[Toups]

Say CBS cancels B&B in the future. Is it possible for the Bells to continue producing the show (in the States) and only sell it to international markets since they make a lot (?) of money of them? Do they make enough money off intertional markets, do they need the American market to survive financially?

[Carolyn1980]

I thought they only had 2009 by current contract, 2 years, 2007-2009.

The current contract is only through March 2009. There had been "rumblings" of a 1 year renewal through 2010 (with an option for a 1 year renewal through 2011) reported as "imminent" in SOD...and Ed Scott said at the Daytime Emmy's that it was likely, but they were trying to figure out the licensing fee NBC would pay....

But since then (June)......dead silence. NBC hasn't yet renewed it past the March 2009 date. If/when they do, they'll issue a press release touting the renewal.